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> Jan 17-20nd MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
Undertakerson
post Jan 12 2018, 03:44 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 11 2018, 08:22 PM) *
This thread is now going for pure snake eyes on the 20th



Soid drop and east Asia rule for this period can now be discussed in the 23-26th thread.

Thanks

I'll just leave this here because this is not the 16th clipper threat. This (on the Euro) is an OBX to MaineJay track of a phased bomb


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At least on this run, the W Ridge is nearly perfect. If I had proprietary access to ClapperTracker ™ tech, I could show how this run matches the opening post BSR look to a T!!


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Storms R us
post Jan 12 2018, 02:58 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 11 2018, 08:22 PM) *
This thread is now going for pure snake eyes on the 20th



Soid drop and east Asia rule for this period can now be discussed in the 23-26th thread.

Thanks


Does that bomb bring warm air into the Mid Atlantic by DE/MD for precip issues?
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shaulov4
post Jan 12 2018, 03:16 PM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Jan 12 2018, 02:58 PM) *
Does that bomb bring warm air into the Mid Atlantic by DE/MD for precip issues?

This storm is not yet in existence to brung anything but pixie dust.
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plowxpress
post Jan 13 2018, 08:51 AM
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Holly says what storm....

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PoconoSnow
post Jan 13 2018, 08:53 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 10 2018, 07:57 PM) *
Firstly the bsr looks excellent with an opportunity at phasing the PAC and artic jets

I notice an hp in the pna region which leans me to believe a +pna will be available

BSR






This looks like what the bsr is showing for the 20th

Snake eyes are alive ?!





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PoconoSnow
post Jan 13 2018, 08:55 AM
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Eps





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PoconoSnow
post Jan 13 2018, 08:57 AM
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This isssss snake eyes as currently portrayed ohmy.gif




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PoconoSnow
post Jan 13 2018, 09:00 AM
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Icon is on it





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PoconoSnow
post Jan 13 2018, 09:06 AM
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06z nav says all globals should be hopping on soon if they haven't already




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PoconoSnow
post Jan 13 2018, 09:13 AM
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Gfs trof axis is a bit far east



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PA ROAD DAWG
post Jan 13 2018, 09:16 AM
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I think the other threads dates are better...but whatever, im down for wherever everyone will be chatting

Believe it or not this storm is only a few days away. The euro, Ukmet, and navgem both show a storm developing off the east coast that rapidly deepens. At this point in time it appears a bit too far offshore to give the mid Atlantic states a good snowstorm. But of course the eastern and northern parts of New England appear to get hit with a heavy snowstorm. The gfs and Cmc show a storm but it's well OtS and doesn't really affect anyone. Based on the latest guidance and what I'm seeing, to me, this looks like a New England special...surprise surprise. The trough axis over the east is too Far East and doesn't swing negative quickly enough to give the mid Atlantic states and some of the northeast states a good snowstorm. Lots could change, and most likely will, but given this setup it screams New England to me. Here's some overnight euro pictures. You can see in the h5 photos what I'm talking about. That trough axis needs to dig deeper, be situated a bit further west, and swing negative sooner to give the mid Atlantic and interiors places a big snowstorm. Combine both snowmaps for this system only

***all storms comes NW, even last nights system went further NW than it was forecasted
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 13 2018, 09:18 AM
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Pard take one look at the storm depicted on the bsr for the 20th and tell me that's not this

I dare you to


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 13 2018, 09:20 AM
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Watch the upper levels





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PoconoSnow
post Jan 13 2018, 09:22 AM
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I honestly dgaf what thread is used

But the bsr I just posted matches the mechanics for the storm showing up on the models.



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PoconoSnow
post Jan 13 2018, 09:30 AM
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I honestly have had enough of this date *bleep* and people claiming storms

So I'll leave it up to the mods

I was starting to really get turned off to the forum for this very reason recently so I'll let everyone post what they want where they want

I literally made a thread for a storm(s) with ample info, details, and instructions only to have basically all of my work doubled and my dates overlapped

This thread then simply became for a storm a I called snakeyes which was showing up on the bsr for the 20th

The way I see it this storm matches the bsr. Post where you want and let the mods figure it out. Cause arbitrary dates of threads mean nothing to me. It's the information in the thread when it's started that counts.

Making a thread and then posting one op run And then "tossing it to the nerds" is not how one should open a thread and explains nothing.

So though a thread may have similar dates, does the original post explain what the thread was for???

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 13 2018, 09:33 AM


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RobB
post Jan 13 2018, 09:39 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 13 2018, 09:30 AM) *
I honestly have had enough of this date *bleep* and people claiming storms

So I'll leave it up to the mods

I was starting to really get turned off to the forum for this very reason recently so I'll let everyone post what they want where they want

I literally made a thread for a storm(s) with ample info, details, and instructions only to have basically all of my work doubled and my dates overlapped

This thread then simply became for a storm a I called snakeyes which was showing up on the bsr for the 20th

The way I see it this storm matches the bsr. Post where you want and let the mods figure it out. Cause arbitrary dates of threads mean nothing to me. It's the information in the thread when it's started that counts.

Making a thread and then posting one op run And then "tossing it to the nerds" is not how one should open a thread and explains nothing.

So though a thread may have similar dates, does the original post explain what the thread was for???


I definitely rather see an initial date situated around the BSR, as you have done, than base it on a long range model whose timing tends to be all over the place.

Keep on posting as you see fit. Ignore the rest....
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Undertakerson
post Jan 13 2018, 10:01 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Jan 13 2018, 09:16 AM) *
I think the other threads dates are better...but whatever, im down for wherever everyone will be chatting

Believe it or not this storm is only a few days away. The euro, Ukmet, and navgem both show a storm developing off the east coast that rapidly deepens. At this point in time it appears a bit too far offshore to give the mid Atlantic states a good snowstorm. But of course the eastern and northern parts of New England appear to get hit with a heavy snowstorm. The gfs and Cmc show a storm but it's well OtS and doesn't really affect anyone. Based on the latest guidance and what I'm seeing, to me, this looks like a New England special...surprise surprise. The trough axis over the east is too Far East and doesn't swing negative quickly enough to give the mid Atlantic states and some of the northeast states a good snowstorm. Lots could change, and most likely will, but given this setup it screams New England to me. Here's some overnight euro pictures. You can see in the h5 photos what I'm talking about. That trough axis needs to dig deeper, be situated a bit further west, and swing negative sooner to give the mid Atlantic and interiors places a big snowstorm. Combine both snowmaps for this system only

***all storms comes NW, even last nights system went further NW than it was forecasted

Not what I see using the SPC site archive looper. The storm went almost exactly where the Euro had it 48hours out, and that the NAV had it even before then. Precip may have stayed more NW but not the storm proper.

And "this storm" is ~Hr120 which is 5 days out from today, not a few days away. Again, the weak system of the 16th is a separate deal.

Some caveman art

Here are our two pieces - blue is the clipper energy, red a partially merged shortwave packet heading south. This is the 15h late day

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Next day, the northern clipper pulls away from the other shortwave as that piece then is allowed to dive in front of the nice Western Ridge and head toward the base of the long wave trough. The clipper spreads snow along the northern periphery of the region - merges with a piece of N Atlantic energy well above the region. That is the unphased solution portrayed in the earlier thread opener.

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So that by the next day it has made the turn north and east to form the more potent threat. Red line denotes the projected path fom there.

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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 13 2018, 10:16 AM
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 13 2018, 10:08 AM
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Here is the opening post of the 16-18th thread



One snap of the gfs depicting a storm that happens nearly on the 16th which doesn't even resemble the storm we are tracking now

No is there any explanation of other guidance or ofm. It also hasn't been updated since.

And just because a thread has dates closer to the current day doesn't make it any likelier of happening....

I still contend that as depicted the "surprise" storm matches nearly perfectly with the ofm depiction of the Bering sea rule for 00z on the 20th which is actually 7pm on the 19th.

So yes I do contend as currently depicted this thread is where "snake eyes" belongs and should be discussed. Period.



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PA ROAD DAWG
post Jan 13 2018, 10:12 AM
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POC, it's not a big deal to me brother. Let's all post here, idc one bit.
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Jan 13 2018, 10:13 AM
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What are your thoughts for this system POC? New England special ?
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