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> January 11-14 Plains/MW/OV Winter Storm OBS, OBS Thread For Latest Models & OBS
Ilovelakeeffect
post Jan 11 2018, 09:42 AM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 11 2018, 09:29 AM) *
Brings me to the question I've asked so many times in the past...Why do I even look at models over 72 hours before the storm? LOL - they are awful with important details until close range is upon us. Can't believe I wasted so much time the last few days tracking this weak mess.

LOL, I hear ya. Funny thing about that though, I have a blast looking at the models, and the clown maps and getting excited for an impending storm. Then when the big one hits, and its snowing hard, I sometimes question why I get so excited, lol. It's fun, but not as fun as I think its going to be...if that makes any sense. In other words, these are always for me more fun to follow in the forecast period then the event itself.
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Kuotations
post Jan 11 2018, 09:44 AM
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Comparison of QPF from 6z to 12z. About a full 1 inch less for Lexington.

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This post has been edited by Kuotations: Jan 11 2018, 09:46 AM
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Kokomo1
post Jan 11 2018, 09:43 AM
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QUOTE(ingyball @ Jan 11 2018, 09:41 AM) *
Are you guys manually calculating sleet? Or is there a map for that.


TT has a 3 KM NAM that removed sleet called Ferrier Rime Correction.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com


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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 11 2018, 09:45 AM
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QUOTE(ingyball @ Jan 11 2018, 09:41 AM) *
Are you guys manually calculating sleet? Or is there a map for that.

there are tools that come out after the run finishes, but for now I'm looking for pivotal snow maps, and comparing them to TT maps which include sleet, and subtracting that from freezing rain maps on pivotal (not mathematically but by just looking) Once the run finishes and coolwx updates that will give a better breakdown
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osubucks30
post Jan 11 2018, 09:48 AM
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My prediction is Winter Storm Warnings will not have to be used.. I actually see the potential for a big goose egg... yep basically no snow. A little surprised ILN went with Winter Storm Watch and then says 2-4 inches???
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BuckeyeDiva
post Jan 11 2018, 09:49 AM
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QUOTE(osubucks30 @ Jan 11 2018, 09:48 AM) *
My prediction is Winter Storm Warnings will not have to be used.. I actually see the potential for a big goose egg... yep basically no snow. A little surprised ILN went with Winter Storm Watch and then says 2-4 inches???


They explained it was the combination of the timing and possibility of mixed precipitation in the write-up.


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Ilovelakeeffect
post Jan 11 2018, 09:49 AM
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QUOTE(osubucks30 @ Jan 11 2018, 09:48 AM) *
My prediction is Winter Storm Warnings will not have to be used.. I actually see the potential for a big goose egg... yep basically no snow. A little surprised ILN went with Winter Storm Watch and then says 2-4 inches???

I think because of the ice at the on-set, that helped them make the call on the watch versus going straight to an advisory.
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osubucks30
post Jan 11 2018, 09:52 AM
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QUOTE(Ilovelakeeffect @ Jan 11 2018, 09:49 AM) *
I think because of the ice at the on-set, that helped them make the call on the watch versus going straight to an advisory.

And in their winter weather watch they say up to .10 of ice... I guess with uncertainty of even last 3 models you still have possibility of 6 plus. Nightmare for any forecaster.

This post has been edited by osubucks30: Jan 11 2018, 09:52 AM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 11 2018, 09:54 AM
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QUOTE(osubucks30 @ Jan 11 2018, 09:48 AM) *
My prediction is Winter Storm Warnings will not have to be used.. I actually see the potential for a big goose egg... yep basically no snow. A little surprised ILN went with Winter Storm Watch and then says 2-4 inches???


1 word.

QUOTE
Criteria:
6 inches of snow or 1/2 inch of sleet in 12 hours
...or...
8 inches of snow in 24 hours
4 inches of snow or 1/2 inch of sleet in 12 hours
...or...
6 inches of snow in 24 hours
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ingyball
post Jan 11 2018, 09:54 AM
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It's starting to look like we might be lucky just to get 4 inches of snow lol.
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ncinthenext3
post Jan 11 2018, 10:07 AM
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QUOTE(ingyball @ Jan 11 2018, 09:54 AM) *
It's starting to look like we might be lucky just to get 4 inches of snow lol.


No doubt. What a bust.


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RobB
post Jan 11 2018, 10:09 AM
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I always respect his input...


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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 11 2018, 10:11 AM
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QPF looks to be coming in weak on the RGEM as well comparatively through hour 30

BTW the NAM went from 1.6'' QPF to .50" IMBY....thats insane
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ingyball
post Jan 11 2018, 10:11 AM
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RGEM seems a bit weaker with precip so far.
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RobB
post Jan 11 2018, 10:16 AM
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I guess one thing has been nice about this system. The words echoed so often on these forums. The ole "Northwest shift" smile.gif One time that many of us which would come to fruition.

Of course, weaker storm doesn't want to play that game.
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OSUWx2
post Jan 11 2018, 10:16 AM
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Compared to everything else, the RGEM looks great laugh.gif
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ingyball
post Jan 11 2018, 10:18 AM
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The RGEM would probably still be a Nasty sleet storm.

This post has been edited by ingyball: Jan 11 2018, 10:18 AM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 11 2018, 10:20 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 11 2018, 10:11 AM) *
QPF looks to be coming in weak on the RGEM as well comparatively through hour 30

BTW the NAM went from 1.6'' QPF to .50" IMBY....thats insane

and the RGEM is well over 1.6'' QPF...

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Jan 11 2018, 10:20 AM
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Kuotations
post Jan 11 2018, 10:21 AM
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Wow, really neat info from LMK: http://www.weather.gov/lmk/winter
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 11 2018, 10:22 AM
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yeah RGEM actually goes back to "moderate" storm idea
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