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> Jan. 12th-13th MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
RobB
post Jan 12 2018, 09:19 AM
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QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Jan 12 2018, 09:17 AM) *
Hey Rob...watching your location as well....wind shift through and already 32 at your airport



Greetings, sir!

Yeppers.

34.1 at my house currently. With daybreak, the temperature drop has slowed for the time being.

Hope all is well with ya!
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kdskidoo
post Jan 12 2018, 09:21 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Jan 12 2018, 08:49 AM) *
An easy 20"+ storm for almost all of central and eastern pa


yup, been waiting for a track like this for years and now we get one and no cold air in place. mad.gif


--------------------
2015/16 snow totals

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clindner00
post Jan 12 2018, 09:23 AM
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Currently 53 degrees on the Knob and foggy/drizzly. Short range models and euro giving me 6+ of snow with this one so we shall see. I guess NWS CTP is favoring the gfs since they have me under a WWA for 1-2
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Solstice
post Jan 12 2018, 09:27 AM
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Extremely dense fog in the predawn hours was burned off as the day progressed. Currently at 54 and rain/wind. Snowpack seems to have done fairly well so far... still in the 2-4" range.

This post has been edited by Solstice: Jan 12 2018, 09:27 AM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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StormFreak
post Jan 12 2018, 09:28 AM
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QUOTE(clindner00 @ Jan 12 2018, 09:23 AM) *
Currently 53 degrees on the Knob and foggy/drizzly. Short range models and euro giving me 6+ of snow with this one so we shall see. I guess NWS CTP is favoring the gfs since they have me under a WWA for 1-2

I don't think PBZ and CTP are quite sure what to do. This is an extremely difficult forecast regarding changeover times/sleet/freezing rain etc... The AFD from PBZ this morning basically says they aren't sure of final amounts:

CODE
Winter storm warnings and advisories remain in place for
the combinations of ice, and snow accumulation. Questions remain
on placement and magnitude of ice and snow amounts given the
dispute between freezing rain supporting warm advection aloft,
and the degradation of the dendrite-formation layer resulting
from the warmth.


--------------------
Josh M
Pittsburgh, PA
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USCG AST
post Jan 12 2018, 09:28 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Jan 12 2018, 08:54 AM) *
Correct. Unless it snows on the i95 it's nothing.

Eh.. Just alot more people along the I-95 corridor

Edit: Had to fix the text speak ha.

This post has been edited by USCG AST: Jan 12 2018, 10:11 AM


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clindner00
post Jan 12 2018, 09:31 AM
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QUOTE(StormFreak @ Jan 12 2018, 09:28 AM) *
I don't think PBZ and CTP are quite sure what to do. This is an extremely difficult forecast regarding changeover times/sleet/freezing rain etc... The AFD from PBZ this morning basically says they aren't sure of final amounts:

CODE
Winter storm warnings and advisories remain in place for
the combinations of ice, and snow accumulation. Questions remain
on placement and magnitude of ice and snow amounts given the
dispute between freezing rain supporting warm advection aloft,
and the degradation of the dendrite-formation layer resulting
from the warmth.

Yeah this is a difficult forecast so I guess its down to just watching the radar now. Could get interesting tonight.
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PlanetMaster
post Jan 12 2018, 09:38 AM
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QUOTE(USCG AST @ Jan 12 2018, 09:28 AM) *
Eh.. Just alot more ppl on the i95 corridor


Thank you for correcting that moronic statement.


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Supertyphoon
post Jan 12 2018, 09:54 AM
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12Z NAM still favoring NW PA and western NY for the sweet spot.


--------------------
On the left...
Back to the Rockers....the best!

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Forecast Challenge 2017-18 update:

Later this season!
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phillyPete
post Jan 12 2018, 10:07 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Jan 12 2018, 08:54 AM) *
Correct. Unless it snows on the i95 it's nothing.

Okay.. Here's a report - it's warm and rainy.
Trails are muddy, but roads are fine and schools are open.

This post has been edited by phillyPete: Jan 12 2018, 10:08 AM
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phillyfan
post Jan 12 2018, 10:08 AM
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QUOTE(StormFreak @ Jan 12 2018, 09:02 AM) *
12Z NAM is really amping up the ZR amounts in PA compared to the last few runs.

Yikes puts 0.8" in my area. ohmy.gif


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jan 12 2018, 10:11 AM
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QUOTE(phillyPete @ Jan 12 2018, 10:07 AM) *
Okay.. Here's a report - it's warm and rainy.
Trails are muddy, but roads are fine and schools are open.


That was funny.

Any possibility of sending kids home early?


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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Kurtmb17
post Jan 12 2018, 10:23 AM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jan 12 2018, 11:08 AM) *
Yikes puts 0.8" in my area. ohmy.gif

Can you possibly post the ice maps. Thanks
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JDClapper
post Jan 12 2018, 10:26 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jan 12 2018, 10:11 AM) *
That was funny.

Any possibility of sending kids home early?


When things really ramp up this afternoon, I might be able to get a couple pictures of puddles to post. Will try!!


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

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wtkidz
post Jan 12 2018, 10:25 AM
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64 cloudy with more rain expected and there are many idiots on the road who can.t drive in any kind of weather.. laugh.gif


--------------------
The weather is what it is and nothing will change it
but trying to forecast it is a lot of fun.



Its Meteorology NOT Modelology
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clindner00
post Jan 12 2018, 10:41 AM
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6 of snow pack yesterday to nothing today
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jan 12 2018, 10:42 AM
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QUOTE(clindner00 @ Jan 12 2018, 10:41 AM) *
6” of snow pack yesterday to nothing today


Amazing how fast it melted bruh. Throw warm fog/rain on snow and poof!

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Jan 12 2018, 11:23 AM


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Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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bingobobbo
post Jan 12 2018, 10:43 AM
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It is now 58 degrees, the warmest January day in almost exactly 10 years (1/8/08). Can we get to 60 degrees before the colder air comes. The snowfall totals keep dropping for us--I hope we can get three inches. Some places only an hour away will receive a foot, but we are looking at a sleetfest here. We haven't even had a three-inch snowfall since last March's big one.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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clindner00
post Jan 12 2018, 10:53 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jan 12 2018, 10:42 AM) *
Amazing how fast it melted bruh. Throw warm dog/rain on snow and poof!

You aint kidding bruh! Still feel good about tonight though. Currently 54 degrees with light to moderate rain
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stretchct
post Jan 12 2018, 10:55 AM
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55 in the hollow. Fog is thick here in New Haven, can't see the parking structure 100 feet away. You look outside, see nothing but white.

This is what happened to my temps this morning - crazy how fast it turned warm.
Attached Image




--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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