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PoconoSnow
Rank: F5 Superstorm
Age Unknown
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Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
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Joined: 21-December 09
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Last Seen: Today, 04:20 PM
Viewing Topic: Jan 27-30th MidAtl/NE Winter Storm
Local Time: Jan 23 2018, 04:31 PM
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PoconoSnow

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14 Jan 2018
JDrenken had me reading some thoughts from uncle Larry cosgrove which caused me to look towards the end of January for our next significant threat.

Snippet from uncle larrys google drive

https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!forum/weatheramerica

So bsr has a nice storm originating from the western GOM and moving due NE into our forecasting area around the same time that uncle Larry is suggesting. So I had to dive in further....

BSR





10 Jan 2018
Firstly the bsr looks excellent with an opportunity at phasing the PAC and artic jets

I notice an hp in the pna region which leans me to believe a +pna will be available

BSR




4 Jan 2018
Let's take a stab here

Soi delta has a large drop for this period




Bsr suggests a potent 523 ULL with retro flow on east coast


Bsr valid 12z on 12th shows a close phase, marked in black lines




I averaged outvthe harmonics and rrwt charts all point to ~57 day smoothed oscillation

We go back to nov 16th



Drop the polar night winds down since it's reconfigured further south since nov and we look good. Is that a possible ULL around 5050 ohmy.gif

Ear has lowered heights over the east coast with a large height rise/blocking during this period, could either be a signal or often times messes with the ear. Enough organic support to fire this up still though.
13 Dec 2017
Pulled my posts and info dive over from the OFM thread

Again a lot of signals out there, and since this is a holiday I figured why not smile.gif

Play along but most of all play nice laugh.gif

QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Dec 13 2017, 01:41 PM) *
So for my next lie....

Lolol
Bsr for 12/31

H5


Mslp


There appears to be a nice ridge poking up that may hint at a positively oriented PNA and western push in the "correct orientation"
East Asia rule/little Japanese snowmen



Shows yet another possible monster typhoon curving while a front crosses Japan and drops two piece snowmen all over smile.gif
The rrwt shows favorable h5 conditions in a 5d interval up until the 27th and depicts a -pna pattern change after that

A lot of dates/analogs gets blended so there may be some extremas that depict storminess during the 1231-0101 time frame.


As of 12/8 I believe the a good blend of 60, 50 and 37 days would be around 47 which puts us at around 10/22-23?

Maybe josh or renken can verify my math smile.gif

But here is the h5 for those dates at 12z


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