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AccuWeather.com Forums _ Current Weather - United States _ Jan. 7-9 Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 28 2016, 10:52 AM

Cold air arrives on the 7th, storm comes on 8th. Question is, where does it go??

 

Posted by: Ryan Duff Dec 28 2016, 12:12 PM

Not on the GFS...

Posted by: phillyfan Dec 28 2016, 12:22 PM

QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Dec 28 2016, 12:12 PM) *
Not on the GFS...

Rain on the 4th with quite the cold shot behind it. Maybe something looming around the 9th...

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 28 2016, 12:28 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 09:52 AM) *
Cold air arrives on the 5th, storm comes on 6th. Question is, where does it go??


A thread created based on the CFS blink.gif ...you are bold aren't you!

Posted by: stilko4 Dec 28 2016, 12:37 PM

Maybe the coast gets a YUGE snowstorm in jan? ... so far winter has favored the interior

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 28 2016, 12:41 PM

I need a storm I am thirsty for snow

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 28 2016, 12:42 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 28 2016, 12:28 PM) *
A thread created based on the CFS blink.gif ...you are bold aren't you!

None are so bold as those who know no different. Our thread creator is "relatively" new to this - so let's not get to quashing too heavily. As you always say JD - if the threat does not pan out, the thread will wither and be relegated to the bottom of the page.

That being said, this time period holds "some" potential - just not a solid signal ATTM.

Looking at LR GFS, we see a stronger signal for ~9th - but that is for another time, perhaps.




Posted by: StormTracker Dec 28 2016, 12:43 PM

On 12Z GFS....definitely farther north...last run had it OTS

 

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 28 2016, 12:45 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 12:43 PM) *
On 12Z GFS....definitely farther north...last run had it OTS

GFS-p also has this system (shown above) - but your dates are in conflict with the images.

I'll let you and JD hash it out as to what to do with this.

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 28 2016, 12:46 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 28 2016, 12:45 PM) *
GFS-p also has this system (shown above) - but your dates are in conflict with the images.

I'll let you and JD hash it out as to what to do with this.

What is the CORRECT date?

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 28 2016, 12:48 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 11:46 AM) *
What is the CORRECT date?


It's not a matter of date...it's a matter of model choice to support your thoughts. As UT stated, if nothing transpires it will fall to the depths of non-posting threads before it.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 28 2016, 12:48 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 12:46 PM) *
What is the CORRECT date?

IF you are speaking of the threat for the image you posted, your answer is there.

Mind you, just 4 runs ago - even this system was shown to be a cutter.

So, I would say the adjustment in dates would be 1/9-11. Again, you should PM JDRenken and consult on the dates, if you plan to adjust them.

Hope that helps.

Posted by: shaulov4 Dec 28 2016, 01:50 PM

Hope everyone had a merry Christmas and or a Happy Chanukah, Good that you changed the date StormTracker, GEFS has been flirting with this time frame as well as the ECWMF,and GFS. Feeling more optimistic as we head into January.

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 28 2016, 01:57 PM

QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Dec 28 2016, 01:50 PM) *
Hope everyone had a merry Christmas and or a Happy Chanukah, Good that you changed the date StormTracker, GEFS has been flirting with this time frame as well as the ECWMF,and GFS. Feeling more optimistic as we head into January.

Me too, hopefully the jet shifts east instead of having cutters.

Posted by: shaulov4 Dec 28 2016, 02:02 PM

Euro shows a suppressed look, but thats just the op, need to look at the ESP will updated you guys later.

Posted by: stilko4 Dec 28 2016, 04:01 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 12:43 PM) *
On 12Z GFS....definitely farther north...last run had it OTS

I know this is probably wrong and its far out, but that high is in a snow to rain position for the tri state area

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 28 2016, 04:11 PM

QUOTE(stilko4 @ Dec 28 2016, 04:01 PM) *
I know this is probably wrong and its far out, but that high is in a snow to rain position for the tri state area

You answered your own question pal, it's too far out. Right now all we care about is the fact that it's a colder period and hopefully a storm rides the jet.

Posted by: yamvmax Dec 28 2016, 05:10 PM

QUOTE(stilko4 @ Dec 28 2016, 05:01 PM) *
I know this is probably wrong and its far out, but that high is in a snow to rain position for the tri state area

This is the best look we have had so far for the coast. although, we are far out though.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 28 2016, 05:17 PM

So, I went and looked at the CFS time frame that started this post. I found that the dates for that image are in line with the original date of 1/6-8.

Now, we've switched to the 9-11. If that is allowed to stand as is, then the thread creator is somewhat obligated to show images or other support for this time pd. Otherwise, it could be understood by some to be wishcasting.

IF you are going to stick to the 9-11 dates, you should edit the original post - and place images that support that time period.


Posted by: jdrenken Dec 28 2016, 05:24 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 28 2016, 04:17 PM) *
So, I went and looked at the CFS time frame that started this post. I found that the dates for that image are in line with the original date of 1/6-8.

Now, we've switched to the 9-11. If that is allowed to stand as is, then the thread creator is somewhat obligated to show images or other support for this time pd. Otherwise, it could be understood by some to be wishcasting.

IF you are going to stick to the 9-11 dates, you should edit the original post - and place images that support that time period.


I didn't even realize the original dates were the 6th-8th! That being said...let's allow this to die since it was based on the CFS anyway.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 28 2016, 05:49 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 28 2016, 05:24 PM) *
I didn't even realize the original dates were the 6th-8th! That being said...let's allow this to die since it was based on the CFS anyway.

That would be OK --

IF the GFS didn't just put this out on the 18z Op run blink.gif




And then this.

18z GFS is NO HELP AT ALL to sorting this out. laugh.gif



Posted by: StormTracker Dec 28 2016, 06:07 PM

Well at the time the GFS didn't support a coastal storm

Posted by: shaulov4 Dec 28 2016, 06:23 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 28 2016, 05:49 PM) *
That would be OK --

IF the GFS didn't just put this out on the 18z Op run blink.gif




And then this.

18z GFS is NO HELP AT ALL to sorting this out. laugh.gif




Euro ESP Control and The operational are both showing the potential with the ESP being more robust.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 28 2016, 06:31 PM

QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Dec 28 2016, 06:23 PM) *
Euro ESP Control and The operational are both showing the potential with the ESP being more robust.

Which system? 18z goes a bit bonkers and just keeps landing on the "free spin" bonus. laugh.gif

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016122818&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=187

Where's that Oprah meme?

Posted by: shaulov4 Dec 28 2016, 06:35 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 28 2016, 06:31 PM) *
Which system? 18z goes a bit bonkers and just keeps landing on the "free spin" bonus. laugh.gif

The first one only, it shows a heavy Greenland blocking signal.
As you can see the chart supports this as well.


You never know...

Posted by: jacksonjeff Dec 28 2016, 06:38 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 28 2016, 06:31 PM) *
Which system? 18z goes a bit bonkers and just keeps landing on the "free spin" bonus. laugh.gif

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016122818&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=187

Where's that Oprah meme?

Lol
The 1059 high in Montana is always a winner for us!!!

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 28 2016, 06:43 PM

QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Dec 28 2016, 06:35 PM) *
The first one only, it shows a heavy Greenland blocking signal.
As you can see the chart supports this as well.


You never know...

Even better - transitional.



Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 28 2016, 06:44 PM

QUOTE(jacksonjeff @ Dec 28 2016, 06:38 PM) *
Lol
The 1059 high in Montana is always a winner for us!!!

Forecast the High(s) - forecast the (snow) storm. wink.gif

Posted by: Snobal Dec 28 2016, 08:06 PM

I like this time period however the PNA has me very concerned

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 28 2016, 08:28 PM

QUOTE(Snobal @ Dec 28 2016, 08:06 PM) *
I like this time period however the PNA has me very concerned

PNA??

Posted by: SnowMan11 Dec 28 2016, 08:32 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 09:28 PM) *
PNA??


You shouldnt be if the EPO and WPO are very negative

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 28 2016, 08:43 PM

No I mean what is PNA?

Posted by: Snobal Dec 28 2016, 09:35 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 08:43 PM) *
No I mean what is PNA?

Its relationship has to do with the troughing and ridging in the west. you want to see a +PNA in order to get snowstorms in the mid-atlantic. the PNA has been a thorn in our side all year and its still forecasted to be negative according to the teleconnections posted above.

Posted by: SnowMan11 Dec 28 2016, 09:36 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 09:43 PM) *
No I mean what is PNA?


http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/PNA.html

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 28 2016, 09:39 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 07:43 PM) *
No I mean what is PNA?


One of the big four teleconnections. Pacific-North American loading pattern has a negative correlation. If the PNA is negative, generally areas east of the Mississippi River are warmer than normal. That being said, if other teleconnections overwhelm one of the others it looses out it's characteristics somewhat.

Hence why we see the -EPO/WPO combination flood the Rockies so much that the cold anomalies bleed East.

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 28 2016, 10:18 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 28 2016, 06:43 PM) *
Even better - transitional.




I prefer my NAO going positive for my bigguns. smile.gif (It can be negative or positive, but best to be going in the positive direction) wink.gif

How about some 12z GEFS. Some eye candies in there.

I dunno what happened with the opening dates and this and that.. but as the dates are set now, this one might not die a quick death, if it dies at all.



Posted by: phillyfan Dec 28 2016, 11:40 PM

0z GFS has the looks of a southern Slider on the 7th now. Keep spinning the wheel.

Posted by: stxprowl Dec 28 2016, 11:47 PM

Only one more years of runs to go! biggrin.gif



Posted by: stxprowl Dec 28 2016, 11:52 PM


Forget threading the needle, the stripe of snow would be a needle. Finally some kind of candy to at least give some hope.

Posted by: phillyfan Dec 29 2016, 12:15 AM

Warms up by the 11th then too...

Posted by: SteelerFan420 Dec 29 2016, 02:38 AM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 28 2016, 12:28 PM) *
A thread created based on the CFS blink.gif ...you are bold aren't you!

I don't mind, Been dying to read something/anything at all for MidAtl
CFS can't be wrong forever, Can it?
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 03:27 AM


Posted by: MaineJay Dec 29 2016, 03:43 AM

From the organic forecasting thread. Please allow a little "wiggle"

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 22 2016, 04:23 AM) *
After weeks of boring SOI deltas, we finally got a little action.

I'm probably trying to get too cute here, but could this signal a pumped up ridge moving through the eastern CONUS Jan 8-9ish, with a sharp trof to follow?

[attachment=305902:Screensh..._16_47_1.png]


Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 04:24 AM

Here's the "problem" with starting a LR thread and not being specific as to which bundle of energy you are attributing to being the genesis of the threat.

This thread started for dates of 6-8, offering only the CFS for support - and one frame at that (the "candy" as we call it).

Then, the next run of the GFS caused a date shift to the 9-11 - again, the dates changed to match the candy shot.

Then, the models spun the wheel once again went round and round - now we have a compromise date change to the 7-9.

Now, the 00z GFSp runs and shows this

A system for the threads original dates - actually, two of them if one wants to get technical







AND one for the adjusted date when it was the 9th - which would be the what? second or third adjustment?




Stormtracker - I'm giving you a lot of slack with this. You have told us that you are quite young. And I get that you're getting "anxious". Therefore, you are very "green" at doing this. That is why I asked you to check with Renken (or any moderator).

Now, we (still) have a mess to sort out.

My vote is that the thread dates get changed back to original - and don't change them EVER. Especially in a very fast paced pattern we'll need to be very careful. EVEN those of us who've known the ropes for a while.

Posted by: conifer1 Dec 29 2016, 06:39 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 05:24 AM) *
Here's the "problem" with starting a LR thread and not being specific as to which bundle of energy you are attributing to being the genesis of the threat.

This thread started for dates of 6-8, offering only the CFS for support - and one frame at that (the "candy" as we call it).

Then, the next run of the GFS caused a date shift to the 9-11 - again, the dates changed to match the candy shot.

Then, the models spun the wheel once again went round and round - now we have a compromise date change to the 7-9.

Now, the 00z GFSp runs and shows this

A system for the threads original dates - actually, two of them if one wants to get technical







AND one for the adjusted date when it was the 9th - which would be the what? second or third adjustment?




Stormtracker - I'm giving you a lot of slack with this. You have told us that you are quite young. And I get that you're getting "anxious". Therefore, you are very "green" at doing this. That is why I asked you to check with Renken (or any moderator).

Now, we (still) have a mess to sort out.

My vote is that the thread dates get changed back to original - and don't change them EVER. Especially in a very fast paced pattern we'll need to be very careful. EVEN those of us who've known the ropes for a while.


Spoken like a true moderator! Err, wait a second....

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 06:42 AM

QUOTE(conifer1 @ Dec 29 2016, 06:39 AM) *
Spoken like a true moderator! Err, wait a second....

laugh.gif laugh.gif

Honestly, only trying to help.

If I were a Mod, I would lock this threads dates and not allow any change. tongue.gif

Posted by: MD Blue Ridge Dec 29 2016, 06:49 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 06:42 AM) *
laugh.gif laugh.gif

Honestly, only trying to help.

If I were a Mod, I would lock this threads dates and not allow any change. tongue.gif


I, for one am glad your power is limited Mussolini, er, I mean UT. smile.gif

Thread dates are a tricky game, and not trying to copy MJ, but long range is painfully difficult.

Posted by: NorEaster07 Dec 29 2016, 07:37 AM

btw.. Euro00z January 7th

Swath of 3-8" from Kansas, Arkansas, TN, Kentucky, Virginias and NJ.

8"+ for higher hills of WV and PA

(last frame)




Posted by: NorEaster07 Dec 29 2016, 07:46 AM

Euro00zEPScontrol stays south with the storm. Exits Carolinas

Posted by: conifer1 Dec 29 2016, 07:52 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 07:42 AM) *
laugh.gif laugh.gif

Honestly, only trying to help.

If I were a Mod, I would lock this threads dates and not allow any change. tongue.gif


As a college professor, teaching Online courses, I do that very thing! Perhaps all involved will have learned a couple of takeaways from this experience.

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 07:53 AM

QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Dec 29 2016, 07:37 AM) *
btw.. Euro00z January 7th

Swath of 3-8" from Kansas, Arkansas, TN, Kentucky, Virginias and NJ.

8"+ for higher hills of WV and PA

(last frame)



What about for Pa

Posted by: hack5 Dec 29 2016, 10:14 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 04:24 AM) *
Here's the "problem" with starting a LR thread and not being specific as to which bundle of energy you are attributing to being the genesis of the threat.

This thread started for dates of 6-8, offering only the CFS for support - and one frame at that (the "candy" as we call it).

Then, the next run of the GFS caused a date shift to the 9-11 - again, the dates changed to match the candy shot.

Then, the models spun the wheel once again went round and round - now we have a compromise date change to the 7-9.

Now, the 00z GFSp runs and shows this

A system for the threads original dates - actually, two of them if one wants to get technical







AND one for the adjusted date when it was the 9th - which would be the what? second or third adjustment?




Stormtracker - I'm giving you a lot of slack with this. You have told us that you are quite young. And I get that you're getting "anxious". Therefore, you are very "green" at doing this. That is why I asked you to check with Renken (or any moderator).

Now, we (still) have a mess to sort out.

My vote is that the thread dates get changed back to original - and don't change them EVER. Especially in a very fast paced pattern we'll need to be very careful. EVEN those of us who've known the ropes for a while.

Woah. This is an amateur weather discussion forum. Take it easy buddy. You just spent several paragraphs blasting a kid because the date on a potential storm had to be changed a couple of times. Let's try to keep some perspective here.

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 10:30 AM

QUOTE(hack5 @ Dec 29 2016, 10:14 AM) *
Woah. This is an amateur weather discussion forum. Take it easy buddy. You just spent several paragraphs blasting a kid because the date on a potential storm had to be changed a couple of times. Let's try to keep some perspective here.

Thank you so much. UTS, i bet you when you were 15 you weren't nearly as good as half of my ability. laugh.gif seriously though, take it easy. It's only a date

Posted by: clindner00 Dec 29 2016, 10:59 AM

QUOTE(hack5 @ Dec 29 2016, 10:14 AM) *
Woah. This is an amateur weather discussion forum. Take it easy buddy. You just spent several paragraphs blasting a kid because the date on a potential storm had to be changed a couple of times. Let's try to keep some perspective here.

I did not take it at all as UTS blasting Stormtracker. He is more or less trying to help guide him to make things easier on all members. There could potentially be 3 storms during the dates that were used so we just need to focus on one bundle of energy. However, it is very difficult in the long range since it will change a million times until then. We generally try to start threads within 6-7 days at most this year to help eliminate any confusion and that's still technically long range.

Posted by: kdskidoo Dec 29 2016, 10:59 AM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 10:30 AM) *
Thank you so much. UTS, i bet you when you were 15 you weren't nearly as good as half of my ability. laugh.gif seriously though, take it easy. It's only a date


dates are important when talking about events in the weather more than a week in advance. it can be confusing when there are multiple waves or storms showing up on models and both are being discussed in the same thread. that's why , IMO, threads shouldn't be started for storms more than a week in advance, but should be discussed in a separate thread titled " pattern discussion" or in the long range thread. too many times storms that appear on models with that much lead time will either disappear entirely or be delayed till a later date. I know we all want a good storm to track for as long as we can, myself included, and I'm not busting on anyone, I just think threads shouldn't be started for storms 10 days out.

Posted by: MD Blue Ridge Dec 29 2016, 11:05 AM

QUOTE(clindner00 @ Dec 29 2016, 10:59 AM) *
I did not take it at all as UTS blasting Stormtracker. He is more or less trying to help guide him to make things easier on all members. There could potentially be 3 storms during the dates that were used so we just need to focus on one bundle of energy. However, it is very difficult in the long range since it will change a million times until then. We generally try to start threads within 6-7 days at most this year to help eliminate any confusion and that's still technically long range.


Agreed. Translation can be difficult in print. UT means no harm. I assure you.

Storm Tracker I enjoy your youthful exuberance and energy, opening threads is tricky business and something many folks in here take very seriously. All is well.

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 11:12 AM

QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Dec 29 2016, 11:05 AM) *
Agreed. Translation can be difficult in print. UT means no harm. I assure you.

Storm Tracker I enjoy your youthful exuberance and energy, opening threads is tricky business and something many folks in here take very seriously. All is well.

Thank you.

Posted by: SnowMan11 Dec 29 2016, 11:34 AM

CMC shows a big storm along the coast

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 11:36 AM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Dec 29 2016, 11:34 AM) *
CMC shows a big storm along the coast

Does it? It only has loaded up to the third for me

Posted by: Snobal Dec 29 2016, 11:39 AM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 10:30 AM) *
Thank you so much. UTS, i bet you when you were 15 you weren't nearly as good as half of my ability. laugh.gif seriously though, take it easy. It's only a date

It is ok that you did this because it is your first time and you dont know yet how it works around here but next time try not to start a thread until we are inside of 7 days of threat.

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 11:42 AM

QUOTE(Snobal @ Dec 29 2016, 11:39 AM) *
It is ok that you did this because it is your first time and you dont know yet how it works around here but next time try not to start a thread until we are inside of 7 days of threat.

Thank you I will try. If this pans out I will be excited. 12Z GFS is a southern slider but is a bit farther north I believe. The trough is in a neutral tilt when the storm arrives and it needs to be negative to allow the low to ride up the coast.

 

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 11:54 AM

12Z CMC snowfalls...I think I'm in love

Second image should make people happy and take them out of their "cutters misery". Finally some cold air WITH the storm!!


 

Posted by: telejunkie Dec 29 2016, 12:01 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 11:54 AM) *
12Z CMC snowfalls...I think I'm in love

Would be awesome…finally give those folks in ME a good snowstorm... tongue.gif

It's a good looking trough on the overnight Euro…was kinda surprised it didn't take it negative and send it up the coast like CMC. Looks to be another fun bundle of energy for watching though…

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 29 2016, 12:24 PM

I posted this over in the BSR thread several days ago .. but there is some BSR support for a system of significance during this time period.

This animation looks amazing, verbatim, for interior folks like me.. it's literally our "benchmark" (slightly inland runner) .. however, BSR storms have tended to verify further NW so far this season, which would make me think we may be looking at a low running up west of Apps, and if we are lucky, a transfer..

Good for at least a front end thump, since we have some cold air in place...

Too be determined...

Click for animation



Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 12:33 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 29 2016, 12:24 PM) *
I posted this over in the BSR thread several days ago .. but there is some BSR support for a system of significance during this time period.

This animation looks amazing, verbatim, for interior folks like me.. it's literally our "benchmark" (slightly inland runner) .. however, BSR storms have tended to verify further NW so far this season, which would make me think we may be looking at a low running up west of Apps, and if we are lucky, a transfer..

Good for at least a front end thump, since we have some cold air in place...

Too be determined...

Click for animation


definetly excited cool.gif

Posted by: paletitsnow63 Dec 29 2016, 12:41 PM

Snowmaps from 12Z GFS & 12Z CMC. This would include all snowfall (including todays) but the bulk in the MA (and S NE) and points south are from the storm in this thread.

 

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 12:44 PM

JUST a quick clarification question...how is the GFS para different from the GFS?

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 12:44 PM

It's a darned shame that the CMC is junk model - almost never verifies.

Hence, why I call it the "rusted pliers" model. You want it to be able to work, it looks like it could work, but the end result is, generally, frustration. sad.gif

On the bright side, Euro sure looked interesting at 00z run this morning (as was posted earlier by Nor'easter and I)

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 12:46 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 12:44 PM) *
JUST a quick clarification question...how is the GFS para different from the GFS?

It is set to replace the current version - I believe it will have better initialization and resolution.

As for exact enhancements - that's more in the realm of information that ST, Poc, MaineJay (others) might provide.


Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 12:47 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 12:46 PM) *
It is set to replace the current version - I believe it will have better initialization and resolution.

As for exact enhancements - that's more in the realm of information that ST, Poc, MaineJay (others) might provide.

Thank you very much.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 12:52 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 12:47 PM) *
Thank you very much.

You're welcome. Not sure how much it helped.

And I want to reiterate MD's words from earlier. We find it quite "cool" that younger members find this a place to come to hone their skills. I believe that you realize that my comments (earlier) were meant to be instructive and constructive. Thank you for the mature manner with which you accepted my comments.

Posted by: phillyfan Dec 29 2016, 12:55 PM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Dec 29 2016, 11:34 AM) *
CMC shows a big storm along the coast

Wow it shows 15" here for me, but it is the CMC though. wink.gif

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 29 2016, 12:56 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 12:44 PM) *
It's a darned shame that the CMC is junk model - almost never verifies.

Hence, why I call it the "rusted pliers" model. You want it to be able to work, it looks like it could work, but the end result is, generally, frustration. sad.gif

On the bright side, Euro sure looked interesting at 00z run this morning (as was posted earlier by Nor'easter and I)


Haha.. I knew you'd have something to say about drunk uncle gee gee's output.

I was also sad that GFS and Euro were not the models showing that.. but, I guess I will take candy when I can get it.

Unrelated.. good thing no one ever opened a New Year's thread to agonize over how pathetic that thing is looking, eh? wink.gif

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 12:56 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 12:52 PM) *
You're welcome. Not sure how much it helped.

And I want to reiterate MD's words from earlier. We find it quite "cool" that younger members find this a place to come to hone their skills. I believe that you realize that my comments (earlier) were meant to be instructive and constructive. Thank you for the mature manner with which you accepted my comments.

And thank you for being a great mentor. It's men like you guys that help me mature as a person and as a amateur met. I appreciate all the advice and guidance, and let's hope for a blizzard!

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 12:59 PM

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Dec 29 2016, 10:34 AM) *
CMC shows a big storm along the coast


Only you would push the CMC! laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

For the new members, the CMC does well in predicting cold...slp...not so much.

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 01:18 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 11:46 AM) *
It is set to replace the current version - I believe it will have better initialization and resolution.

As for exact enhancements - that's more in the realm of information that ST, Poc, MaineJay (others) might provide.


http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/misc/05-DiMego-NPSR.pptx.pptx is a list of the enhancements in the near future in power point form. Too many to list.

Posted by: PAXpatriot Dec 29 2016, 01:59 PM

CMC scores about 1 coup per season, so maybe this is it, lol. Although I will say that it tends to do a little better on northern stream systems, and I'm not sure this one fits the bill.

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 02:00 PM

How the EURO for storm track and snowfall?

Posted by: RJSD123 Dec 29 2016, 02:09 PM

It looks like a snow to rain event for coastal and inland areas just west of I-95 on the Euro for 1/6 to 1/7. just going by the thermodynamics. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 02:11 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 01:00 PM) *
How the EURO for storm track and snowfall?


Southern slider that does well for Southern MidAtl from WV to Southern Jersey. That being said...it's from the 5th-7th for them and on the 7th it goes inside the 40/70 benchmark with less gusto.

EDIT: Do not change the dates again.

Posted by: UTWeather Dec 29 2016, 02:13 PM

Did the Euro come in warmer with a more inland track at hour 192 (IWM)? Last night's appeared more south and colder.

Posted by: PAXpatriot Dec 29 2016, 02:15 PM

Euro looks like it would get a lot of us on the board for the season in the MA region. I'd take it in a heartbeat.

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 29 2016, 02:57 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 29 2016, 02:11 PM) *
Southern slider that does well for Southern MidAtl from WV to Southern Jersey. That being said...it's from the 5th-7th for them and on the 7th it goes inside the 40/70 benchmark with less gusto.

EDIT: Do not change the dates again.


Such confusion with dates. Haha..

Checking the text for Central PA .. most qpf occurs on 1/6 into early 1/7 .. ~0.4" of snow for my backyard.. so, not sure if that's THIS threads system with timing differences, or a different storm altogether.

Too confusing when 8+ days smile.gif

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 03:43 PM

GFS and Euro both HAVE southern slider

Posted by: PAXpatriot Dec 29 2016, 03:56 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 03:43 PM) *
GFS and Euro both HAVE southern slider


Latest Euro would not be a southern slider, in my opinion. Looks like a region-wide moderate snowfall in my area, and southern I am not.

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 04:00 PM

QUOTE(PAXpatriot @ Dec 29 2016, 02:56 PM) *
Latest Euro would not be a southern slider, in my opinion. Looks like a region-wide moderate snowfall in my area, and southern I am not.


Bulk of snow is south of Mason Dixon line. Its a southern slider.

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 29 2016, 04:04 PM

Ok, so it's officially almost impossible not to get excited for this system. I do this to myself almost every time. I get amped up seeing the models and then get completely let down. Anyways, the euro looks decent, and so does the CMC. The CMC is a "classic nor'easter" with a low up the western apps that transfers to the coast. Also the ratios are rather high to more you get into the interior. I told myself I won't post the snowmaps, and I won't, but the CMC shows a nice 12+ strip from central pa up thru New England. Coastal areas cash in this run




 

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 04:29 PM

MREF ensembles - most are southern slide job. Two are inland or App runners and one actually makes a coastal of this threat.

Way too far out to get excited over one operational run of the CMC. Yet, worthy of watching I suppose.

(btw - GFSp look no better - in fact it has suppression depression written all over it - not that this model is infallible)

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloopmref.html

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016122912&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=0

Posted by: phillyPete Dec 29 2016, 04:30 PM

LOL, I'm enjoying how the new kid starts a thread with just one CFS run, with a lot of hope, uncertain timing, a lot of side-eye from the seasoned regulars - and it might actually turn into something.

So let's all keep "poo-pooing" this threat! That got me 24" last February! biggrin.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 04:30 PM

QUOTE(phillyPete @ Dec 29 2016, 04:30 PM) *
LOL, I'm enjoying how the new kid starts a thread with just one CFS run, with a lot of hope, uncertain timing, a lot of side-eye from the seasoned regulars - and it might actually turn into something.

So let's all keep "poo-pooing" this threat! That got me 24" last February! biggrin.gif

Last February?

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 04:44 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 29 2016, 03:04 PM) *
Ok, so it's officially almost impossible not to get excited for this system. I do this to myself almost every time. I get amped up seeing the models and then get completely let down. Anyways, the euro looks decent, and so does the CMC. The CMC is a "classic nor'easter" with a low up the western apps that transfers to the coast. Also the ratios are rather high to more you get into the interior. I told myself I won't post the snowmaps, and I won't, but the CMC shows a nice 12+ strip from central pa up thru New England. Coastal areas cash in this run


I stopped at CMC.

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 04:46 PM

QUOTE(phillyPete @ Dec 29 2016, 03:30 PM) *
LOL, I'm enjoying how the new kid starts a thread with just one CFS run, with a lot of hope, uncertain timing, a lot of side-eye from the seasoned regulars - and it might actually turn into something.

So let's all keep "poo-pooing" this threat! That got me 24" last February! biggrin.gif


As I always say...one persons bust is another jackpot! This being a region wide snow event is not in play.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 04:47 PM

To add to the Euro discussion, the surface low barely registers as a defined low on the Op run (1000 mb is the lowest value I can find on the 24 hour maps), the Ensembles even less so.

Suggests to me that even should this come north enough to have wide range impact, it would tend to be a quick hitter with only so much moisture draw off the GOM.

Mind you, that is only relating to what I see, verbatim, at this point in time. Not that it cannot or will not become a larger threat.




Posted by: phillyPete Dec 29 2016, 04:51 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 04:30 PM) *
Last February?

Right! January... my mistake.
Was a great one for MBY.



Mind you, I'm not saying anything about this verifying into anything - just semi-entertaining thread commotion in this downtime. This old newbie knows to wait and watch and I generally keep my mouth shut except to post model runs or OBS..

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 29 2016, 04:55 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 29 2016, 04:44 PM) *
I stopped at CMC.

The euro isn't so bad either, but nothing like the CMC

Posted by: KENNYP2339 Dec 29 2016, 04:57 PM

back to blizzard of 96' youtube video's

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 04:58 PM

QUOTE(phillyPete @ Dec 29 2016, 04:51 PM) *
Right! January... my mistake.
Was a great one for MBY.



You have a nice "MBY" PhP. But that storm is a bit of a sore spot for many in here (N of the I-78 corridor, that is)

If you go back to that thread (pg 11) there are some interesting parallels, but they only go so far as to making this threat any kind of comparison

(btw - you are on record over there as saying, around January 10th) that it hasn't snowed, significantly, in your back yard until Jan 22+, for the past two years running). Here's to hopin'... I guess.


Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 05:01 PM

QUOTE(phillyPete @ Dec 29 2016, 03:51 PM) *
Right! January... my mistake.
Was a great one for MBY.



Mind you, I'm not saying anything about this verifying into anything - just semi-entertaining thread commotion in this downtime. This old newbie knows to wait and watch and I generally keep my mouth shut except to post model runs or OBS..


Ohhh....


http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=32617 or DKB ?

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 05:18 PM

One thing I do "like" (if I can use that term) about the CMC depiction is that it is actually a transfer situation which, if you look at my LR winter posts, I thought might be the predominant storm type this winter (until later this winter).

TBH - I had not considered slider solutions, but that only means it didn't come to mind for me - not that there's a lesser chance just because I did not "see" it.

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 05:37 PM

18Z is looking good

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 29 2016, 05:39 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 05:37 PM) *
18Z is looking good

Yes it is considerably more north. Not a blockbuster, but definitely a step in the right direction.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 05:45 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 05:37 PM) *
18Z is looking good

Indeed it is (and there's an event for the 5-6th too - LOL. Not a hit at this point, but there it is nonetheless)

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 05:47 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 05:45 PM) *
Indeed it is (and there's an event for the 5-6th too - LOL. Not a hit at this point, but there it is nonetheless)

Yes...it's far out, but at this point the CMC, GFS, and somewhat Euro are on board for a snowstorm. Remember the blizzard when the models verified at least 6 days out and kept it. Maybe this is the one, and all of you will be laughing at me predicting a storm THIS far out, but when it actually happens you'll thank me.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 05:49 PM

Love it! Solid hit for Ashburn, VA laugh.gif (wait until my buddy ST sees this post laugh.gif )


Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 06:00 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 05:47 PM) *
Yes...it's far out, but at this point the CMC, GFS, and somewhat Euro are on board for a snowstorm. Remember the blizzard when the models verified at least 6 days out and kept it. Maybe this is the one, and all of you will be laughing at me predicting a storm THIS far out, but when it actually happens you'll thank me.


We don't hand out award for creating threads. Any number of others could have, and would have, also started this thread. Given that it took you a few tries to even nail down dates (and I still maintain that you pegged the wrong system when you started this one) you get point for enthusiasm but no more.

You did not really "predict" anything to be honest about it. You saw one, maybe two candy runs and you then ran with that. You offered little to no reasoning beyond the pretty maps. You'll find, as you move forward, that you'll get far more credit for adding those layers of detail, than for choosing the "correct" pretty colored map.

I say this, not to bring you down - but to hopefully show you a path by which you can rise even higher.

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 06:06 PM

As a side note...I can't wait for Jan verification of this! Granted, the dynamic nature of our lag date makes the exact dates off...but the pattern was shown!



 

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 06:08 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 04:47 PM) *
Yes...it's far out, but at this point the CMC, GFS, and somewhat Euro are on board for a snowstorm. Remember the blizzard when the models verified at least 6 days out and kept it. Maybe this is the one, and all of you will be laughing at me predicting a storm THIS far out, but when it actually happens you'll thank me.



You really need to come down off your soap box when you didn't provide anything except one snapshot of a model that doesn't get much support and had to change the dates to boot to fit the agenda.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 06:14 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 29 2016, 06:06 PM) *
As a side note...I can't wait for Jan verification of this! Granted, the dynamic nature of our lag date makes the exact dates off...but the pattern was shown!

Hmmm





Appears to be reasonably close, to me. Someone should start a thread for this time period. wink.gif

Posted by: hack5 Dec 29 2016, 06:15 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 06:00 PM) *
We don't hand out award for creating threads. Any number of others could have, and would have, also started this thread. Given that it took you a few tries to even nail down dates (and I still maintain that you pegged the wrong system when you started this one) you get point for enthusiasm but no more.

You did not really "predict" anything to be honest about it. You saw one, maybe two candy runs and you then ran with that. You offered little to no reasoning beyond the pretty maps. You'll find, as you move forward, that you'll get far more credit for adding those layers of detail, than for choosing the "correct" pretty colored map.

I say this, not to bring you down - but to hopefully show you a path by which you can rise even higher.

Okay, stop.
Before you at least came off as someone trying to give some guidance to a youngster. Now you just look petty and bitter.
Not a good look. Just sayin'.

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 06:19 PM

QUOTE(hack5 @ Dec 29 2016, 05:15 PM) *
Okay, stop.
Before you at least came off as someone trying to give some guidance to a youngster. Now you just look petty and bitter.
Not a good look. Just sayin'.


He responded to gloating and you say he's petty and bitter yet not respond to gloating. Cherry pickin'...just sayin'.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 06:21 PM

QUOTE(hack5 @ Dec 29 2016, 06:15 PM) *
Okay, stop.
Before you at least came off as someone trying to give some guidance to a youngster. Now you just look petty and bitter.
Not a good look. Just sayin'.

So, then report me if you feel you must.

I obviously strike a sour chord with you - and yet, I have not even addressed you until now.

Others have read my words, and understood that with which you appear to struggle. I offered the tone of my words to the poster to whom they were addressed. Should he have an issue, he might avail himself of PM to me and we can discuss. As well, he has the report option.

I apologize to the forum in general for choosing to reply here and at this time. But, you see, I have not reported you for a personal attack - and would prefer to keep it that way, thank you.

Posted by: Beers1 Dec 29 2016, 06:24 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 29 2016, 06:08 PM) *
You really need to come down off your soap box when you didn't provide anything except one snapshot of a model that doesn't get much support and had to change the dates to boot to fit the agenda.


Wow you can't just leave it alone with this kid! Weren't you once 15 also?? Obviously he is young and very much excited for the possibility of a snowstorm. Last time I checked most here are novices learning just like you did one day. I hope this storm pans out on the original date just so he can stick it to ya!

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 06:29 PM

QUOTE(Beers1 @ Dec 29 2016, 05:24 PM) *
Wow you can't just leave it alone with this kid! Weren't you once 15 also?? Obviously he is young and very much excited for the possibility of a snowstorm. Last time I checked most here are novices learning just like you did one day. I hope this storm pans out on the original date just so he can stick it to ya!


You might want to look at my verification post above. wink.gif

BTW...so why change the dates if the original was a given instead of flopping on the model runs?

Y'all are missing the point. When we create threads it is done with support. Cherry picking a snapshot model that is consistently made fun of doesn't say support.

This forum is about learning and instead of gloating, which he did, he needs to learn.

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 06:29 PM

QUOTE(Beers1 @ Dec 29 2016, 06:24 PM) *
Wow you can't just leave it alone with this kid! Weren't you once 15 also?? Obviously he is young and very much excited for the possibility of a snowstorm. Last time I checked most here are novices learning just like you did one day. I hope this storm pans out on the original date just so he can stick it to ya!

Thanks man!!!

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 06:36 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 29 2016, 06:29 PM) *
You might want to look at my verification post above. wink.gif

BTW...so why change the dates if the original was a given instead of flopping on the model runs?

Y'all are missing the point. When we create threads it is done with support. Cherry picking a snapshot model that is consistently made fun of doesn't say support.

This forum is about learning and instead of gloating, which he did, he needs to learn.

And it's not about "sticking it to" anyone. For those to which that seems "reasonable", I am truly sorry you can't see that we are trying to help, not harm.

AS I tell those who truly know me - if I respond at all, it is because I find you worthy of response at all. If it were otherwise, I would allow my silence to convey my dissent.

Posted by: Beers1 Dec 29 2016, 06:38 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 29 2016, 06:29 PM) *
You might want to look at my verification post above. wink.gif

BTW...so why change the dates if the original was a given instead of flopping on the model runs?

Y'all are missing the point. When we create threads it is done with support. Cherry picking a snapshot model that is consistently made fun of doesn't say support.

This forum is about learning and instead of gloating, which he did, he needs to learn.


Right he needs to learn!! So instead of putting him down TEACH him!

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 06:42 PM

QUOTE(Beers1 @ Dec 29 2016, 06:38 PM) *
Right he needs to learn!! So instead of putting him down TEACH him!

Oh, the irony.

Calling one out on their acts is not putting down. If that were so, you and Hack would need to do a mea culpa.

Better yet, perhaps you could join in the instruction? If you read back through the pages, you'll see plenty of content. Our track records speak for themselves as it relates to trying (in our own way) to shed some light. I get that not all folks like one style or the other - but I believe you know not of that which you address.


Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 06:48 PM

QUOTE(Beers1 @ Dec 29 2016, 05:38 PM) *
Right he needs to learn!! So instead of putting him down TEACH him!


Again...
QUOTE
This forum is about learning and instead of gloating, which he did, he needs to learn.


We were teaching him from the first post, but take note of the above bolded/italics...

Posted by: Beers1 Dec 29 2016, 06:49 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 06:42 PM) *
Oh, the irony.

Calling one out on their acts is not putting down. If that were so, you and Hack would need to do a mea culpa.

Better yet, perhaps you could join in the instruction? If you read back through the pages, you'll see plenty of content. Our track records speak for themselves as it relates to trying (in our own way) to shed some light. I get that not all folks like one style or the other - but I believe you know not of that which you address.

UT I feel your always shedding light to everyone. Just feel JD's posts sometimes come out in a harsher way I guess.

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 06:51 PM

QUOTE(Beers1 @ Dec 29 2016, 05:49 PM) *
UT I feel your always shedding light to everyone. Just feel JD's posts sometimes come out in a harsher way I guess.


I addressed him gloating while not providing actual support and changing dates to fit the models bipolar tendencies...darn right I was harsh.

Posted by: Beers1 Dec 29 2016, 06:52 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 29 2016, 06:51 PM) *
I addressed him gloating while not providing actual support and changing dates to fit the models bipolar tendencies...darn right I was harsh.

Big man

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 06:55 PM

QUOTE(Beers1 @ Dec 29 2016, 05:52 PM) *
Big man


Psst....you don't learn by gloating without support. Reminds me of the mets who post both all of the models and act like they call something from the get go. Or...how about "muddying the waters" when you are vague on a solution so that you can claim victory. Could go on and on...

Bringing him "down to earth" was for his benefit. Obviously y'all want him to be the options directly above and be more worried about likes on Facebook weather page or followers on Twitter instead of learning. I don't operate that way.

I guess being a supermoderator since 2008 means nothing...there's always social media. wink.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 07:00 PM

Somewhere, in New Jersey, Grandpaboy is grabbing the popcorn laugh.gif

18z MREFs, not too shabby given the lead time. A couple disjointed members but close enough, for now I suppose.



Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 07:03 PM

Guys,

It's not that I don't see other models when I post. I knew in my head that the CMC was terrible. I just had a hunch that since most of the forecasted storms were predicted cutters and became cutters, THIS one was the first coastal worth mentioning. I had a hunch that the other models would soon follow. I do in fact do analysis, looking at troughs, temps, and positioning. I guess I'm just lazy and only post the candy model runs.

Best,
Jonathan

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 07:07 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 06:03 PM) *
Guys,

It's not that I don't see other models when I post. I knew in my head that the CMC was terrible. I just had a hunch that since most of the forecasted storms were predicted cutters and became cutters, THIS one was the first coastal worth mentioning. I had a hunch that the other models would soon follow. I do in fact do analysis, looking at troughs, temps, and positioning. I guess I'm just lazy and only post the candy model runs.

Best,
Jonathan



Per the http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=boardrules, we don't create threads based on hunches.

Look at this as a learning experience. For future reference, pm one of the regulars, or me for any questions about creating threads not based on hunches.

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 07:08 PM

Also, most of the models have something going for this period which boosts my confidence in my topic post even more. I know what I am doing. I admit in the past that I have been foolish with posts, but that's why I learn and move on, like JD suggested.

Currently, here are the models that show some form of a coastal:

-GFS
-EURO
-CMC
-GDPS
-EPS

Posted by: weatherfreakpa Dec 29 2016, 07:09 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 08:03 PM) *
Guys,

It's not that I don't see other models when I post. I knew in my head that the CMC was terrible. I just had a hunch that since most of the forecasted storms were predicted cutters and became cutters, THIS one was the first coastal worth mentioning. I had a hunch that the other models would soon follow. I do in fact do analysis, looking at troughs, temps, and positioning. I guess I'm just lazy and only post the candy model runs.

Best,
Jonathan

Hey man dont take what these guys say in a bad way. They wmreally are here for their love of all weather and open discussions. These guys are extremely knowledgeable and will help if u let them and listen. I havent popped in for a while but this time frame has my attn. I think our pattern flip is on the way. The real fun is coming soon. Get ur snowblowers ready yall lol

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 07:10 PM

QUOTE(weatherfreakpa @ Dec 29 2016, 07:09 PM) *
Hey man dont take what these guys say in a bad way. They wmreally are here for their love of all weather and open discussions. These guys are extremely knowledgeable and will help if u let them and listen. I havent popped in for a while but this time frame has my attn. I think our pattern flip is on the way. The real fun is coming soon. Get ur snowblowers ready yall lol

Exactly that's what I've been saying! This period looked different to me, both in the 500 mB and on the surface. A different pattern. Like I said, I wouldn't have posted this far out if I hadn't noticed the trend begin to change.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 29 2016, 07:11 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 07:08 PM) *
Also, most of the models have something going for this period which boosts my confidence in my topic post even more. I know what I am doing. I admit in the past that I have been foolish with posts, but that's why I learn and move on, like JD suggested.

Currently, here are the models that show some form of a coastal:

-GFS
-GFS Para
-EURO
-CMC
-GDPS
-EPS

I would not put GFSp on that list, at least not the most recent 12z run. (edit - but there is a storm signal, and it was on the 00z run, so there's that)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016122912&fh=234&xpos=0&ypos=187

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 07:12 PM

blink.gif

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 07:11 PM) *
I would not put GFSp on that list, at least not the most recent 12z run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016122912&fh=234&xpos=0&ypos=187

My bad, missed that one

Posted by: Ryan Duff Dec 29 2016, 07:12 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 28 2016, 05:24 PM) *
I didn't even realize the original dates were the 6th-8th! That being said...let's allow this to die since it was based on the CFS anyway.


I stopped here yesterday... how is this thread still going and now at 7 pages? LOL

I guess sometimes it is good to take a break.

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 29 2016, 07:19 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 07:11 PM) *
I would not put GFSp on that list, at least not the most recent 12z run. (edit - but there is a storm signal, and it was on the 00z run, so there's that)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016122912&fh=234&xpos=0&ypos=187


The 6z para had somewhat of a coastal. Keep in mind it's always a suite behind. The 18z comes out later tonight, so it may it show it then

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 07:29 PM

Sorry guys

Posted by: jacksonjeff Dec 29 2016, 07:34 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 07:00 PM) *
Somewhere, in New Jersey, Grandpaboy is grabbing the popcorn laugh.gif

18z MREFs, not too shabby given the lead time. A couple disjointed members but close enough, for now I suppose.



lol
Mine is in the microwave!!!!

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 29 2016, 07:44 PM

12z GEFS .. really decent signal for a storm.. a little something and nothing for everyone.. which is probably what OP runs will be for the next several days.




Posted by: JDClapper Dec 29 2016, 07:46 PM

GEPS is pretty meh.. there's a couple nice members that try to support the CMC op run... but.

Good thing this is not a great choice of models to "trust". smile.gif




Posted by: Snobal Dec 29 2016, 07:47 PM

Well to be honest guys the way this year has gone so far I am kind of happy that some are showing a southern slider. to me that is 3 positives the first being it most likely will not be another cutter, 2nd there is ample cold coming down and 3rd there is room for a northern trend.

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 29 2016, 07:49 PM

Good news is, near full sampling with occur with the 0z Friday run.

That's Thursday Night, NEXT week. Sweet dreams. sad.gif



Posted by: JDClapper Dec 29 2016, 07:50 PM

QUOTE(Snobal @ Dec 29 2016, 07:47 PM) *
Well to be honest guys the way this year has gone so far I am kind of happy that some are showing a southern slider. to me that is 3 positives the first being it most likely will not be another cutter, 2nd there is ample cold coming down and 3rd there is room for a northern trend.


I like this the most .. here's hoping it doesn't modify too much as we get closer to the event.

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 29 2016, 07:55 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 29 2016, 07:49 PM) *
Good news is, near full sampling with occur with the 0z Friday run.

That's Thursday Night, NEXT week. Sweet dreams. sad.gif




Following it back closer to today.. it's an interesting path .. here it is at 7pm tonight.. then it will basically ride the Pacific Coast and hang out on the US west coast quite awhile before finally moving along. ohmy.gif

Sooo much can go wrong sad.gif



Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 07:56 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 29 2016, 06:55 PM) *
Following it back closer to today.. it's an interesting path .. here it is at 7pm tonight.. then it will basically ride the Pacific Coast and hang out on the US west coast quite awhile before finally moving along. ohmy.gif

Sooo much can go wrong sad.gif




Which is why I feel this set up prior will show a drop in verification scores.

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 08:09 PM

When does the 18Z Para come out?

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 29 2016, 08:16 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 08:09 PM) *
When does the 18Z Para come out?

Right around the time the 00z gfs comes out

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 08:31 PM

It makes me scared now knowing that the system isn't actually going to make landfall until next Thursday. We will have to take it one day at a time and pray
that the models can somehow, someway come to a consensus and stick like that for a week until we get better sampling.

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 29 2016, 09:02 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 08:31 PM) *
It makes me scared now knowing that the system isn't actually going to make landfall until next Thursday. We will have to take it one day at a time and pray
that the models can somehow, someway come to a consensus and stick like that for a week until we get better sampling.



It makes me scAred and sad knowing that I won't see snow from this system but I'll dedicate the next week of my life hoping I do. 😞
Tom Clark does give his farewell forecast this Friday, so with him retiring who knows how the weather gods will curse or bless us.

Posted by: stretchct Dec 29 2016, 09:03 PM

GFS vs ensembles - just sayin...




Though I do like that its to our south. I don't like the lack of a Canadian high. At least its not a cutter...(yet?)

Posted by: stretchct Dec 29 2016, 09:12 PM

I'll throw out the last 5 or 6 gfs runs as well for viewing that time frame

Posted by: PAXpatriot Dec 29 2016, 09:29 PM

Seems like the models have shifted north and away from the southern slider from yesterday. I've always been more concerned with another storm missing my area to the west, given the way this season has gone.

Posted by: Storms R us Dec 29 2016, 09:29 PM

QUOTE(stretchct @ Dec 29 2016, 09:03 PM) *
GFS vs ensembles - just sayin...




Though I do like that its to our south. I don't like the lack of a Canadian high. At least its not a cutter...(yet?)


I agree as there is time but it seems the old is west and north to upper north east and hits the mid alt but moderates quick with rain. Even though I'll take the rain any day then ice.

There is a lot of winter let so all we can do is watch. I'll be heading to the Eagle Mere's area for some bow hunting that weekend so I hope the weather cooperates.

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 29 2016, 10:10 PM

QUOTE(PAXpatriot @ Dec 29 2016, 09:29 PM) *
Seems like the models have shifted north and away from the southern slider from yesterday. I've always been more concerned with another storm missing my area to the west, given the way this season has gone.


Do you live near me? If so, don't expect much. But if you don't you're in good shape!

Posted by: TC1 Dec 29 2016, 10:18 PM

QUOTE(stretchct @ Dec 29 2016, 09:03 PM) *
Though I do like that its to our south. I don't like the lack of a Canadian high. At least its not a cutter...(yet?)


A few GFS ensemble members do still call for a cutter with the 18z run. And thus far, the Great Lakes have been like a magnet laugh.gif

Posted by: grandpaboy Dec 29 2016, 10:23 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 07:00 PM) *
Somewhere, in New Jersey, Grandpaboy is grabbing the popcorn laugh.gif

18z MREFs, not too shabby given the lead time. A couple disjointed members but close enough, for now I suppose.





Might be late to the game, but always lurking.... wink.gif


Oh and for Christmas this year, i got a huge box of movie popcorn with assorted flavorings to top it with...im popped and ready to go.... rolleyes.gif


http://www.sherv.net/

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 10:25 PM

QUOTE(stretchct @ Dec 29 2016, 08:03 PM) *
GFS vs ensembles - just sayin...




Though I do like that its to our south. I don't like the lack of a Canadian high. At least its not a cutter...(yet?)


Thanks for posting! To give a better view though, I'd use http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html as you can see the precip field of each member even better than the weatherbell maps.

Posted by: clindner00 Dec 29 2016, 10:32 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 29 2016, 10:25 PM) *
Thanks for posting! To give a better view though, I'd use http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html as you can see the precip field of each member even better than the weatherbell maps.

oh pish posh JD! I'll take my 2 in 12 chance that your ensembles show me of a northern mid atlantic hit! lmao!

Posted by: clindner00 Dec 29 2016, 10:34 PM

you're only showing me that there is a 10 in 12 chance of a southern slider with your ensembles JD......

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 10:40 PM

00Z GFS rolling...

Posted by: SteelerFan420 Dec 29 2016, 10:43 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 10:40 PM) *
00Z GFS rolling...

Impatiently Waiting..... 😅

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 10:44 PM

QUOTE(SteelerFan420 @ Dec 29 2016, 10:43 PM) *
Impatiently Waiting..... 😅

I like your quote

Posted by: SteelerFan420 Dec 29 2016, 11:01 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 10:44 PM) *
I like your quote

You went and posted eye candy now Im all fired up! Were counting on you to deliver,
If you don't......I PITTY THE FOOL!
Btw all of the above is not to be taken with any seriousness at all.
Here's to Bomb-Genesis over Mid-Atl

Posted by: PSUWeatherNewbie Dec 29 2016, 11:14 PM

People need to realize a few things, the disturbance in the west coast of the US around the 6th is not our storm for this time period. Instead there are several systems at play here between January 5th and 9th, however, our main system starts developmental trends around hour 168, and then heads northeastward once enough GOM moisture is introduced. What helps these systems with major snows is that the GOM and Atlantic Ocean moisture sources are all introduced to help the snow sustain itself as it moves northeastward and the surface system strengthens. The EURO is too mild for snow along the SNE coastline and into the I95 corridor as of the 12z run. It was nothing like the GFS and CMC. CMC would still be rain for Cape Cod as the surface low strengthens north of the benchmark. What we want is a GOM to BM track with a Canadian High placed over Quebec, Canada. INvolvement of the arctic jet stream can actually misplace the Canadian Arctic high pressure center to the east as a surface low moves through the arctic flow and amplifies closer to the Polar Vortex within the arctic jet. If the arctic low can dive southeastward into the GRT Lakes and into the Northeast US then we can get cyclogenesis to behave accordingly and get a Canadian HIgh pressure center present in the right location. The -NAO should help out in that regard, but lack of a +PNA can kill our coastal snow chances.

Posted by: PSUWeatherNewbie Dec 29 2016, 11:17 PM

18z GFS shows that the jet energy capable of spinning up our GOM moisture and surface low is an upper level pocket of energy that develops over NV/CA region and moves through as arctic jet energy gets involved, but it doesn't move far enough southeast to phase in with the GOM moisture and instead heads out to sea with some impact and instead intensifies over near Nova Scotia and New Foundland, Canada.

Posted by: PSUWeatherNewbie Dec 29 2016, 11:20 PM

Our pacific jet energy disturbance that is in question begins to impact the west coast of the US around the 31st of DEC, about 36 hours until it is in the US. Until this energy gets better sampled give it another 36 hours or so will actually trim down our timing, track and intensity questions.

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 11:32 PM

1030mb high covering PA late night on the 6th.



200mb just 6 hours later...

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 29 2016, 11:41 PM

Gfs is a southern slider

Posted by: SteelerFan420 Dec 29 2016, 11:44 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 29 2016, 11:32 PM) *
1030mb high covering PA late night on the 6th.



200mb just 6 hours later...

1030mb means I'm not gonna give any more room to north suckkkkers, Later that night Euro shows a mega bomb off DelMarva it would be my duty to rush back here to be the first to post that
"Game is back on fella's"
Again a 1030mb is pretty high close to same as I 🤣🎅🍦

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 11:44 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 29 2016, 11:41 PM) *
Gfs is a southern slider

I bet every other will be a slider and the others will be coastals. Again it's so far out and very likely that nothing could happen at all.

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 11:46 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 29 2016, 10:41 PM) *
Gfs is a southern slider


Not only a southern slider, but NE Louisiana gets more than Southern VA. I'd venture to say that it's more "suppression depression" than southern slider.

24hr snowfall


Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 11:48 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 10:44 PM) *
I bet every other will be a slider and the others will be coastals. Again it's so far out and very likely that nothing could happen at all.



That borders on bittercasting...
QUOTE
"bittercasting" (which is saying "It won't happen" with no reason)


Not only that, but VA is in the MidAtl so the thread would go on for that reason.

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 11:55 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 29 2016, 11:48 PM) *
That borders on bittercasting...
Not only that, but VA is in the MidAtl so the thread would go on for that reason.

oooh I didn't know that there were different types of forecasting?

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 29 2016, 11:56 PM

CMC suppression depression too

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 29 2016, 11:57 PM

welcome to the flip-flop stage...

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 29 2016, 11:58 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 10:55 PM) *
oooh I didn't know that there were different types of forecasting?


You accepted the http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=boardrules when you signed up. Might want to read them again.

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 30 2016, 12:01 AM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 29 2016, 10:56 PM) *
CMC suppression depression too


We need the "Clapper Tracker" in the morning! laugh.gif

It is faster than the GFS.

Posted by: phillyfan Dec 30 2016, 12:07 AM

0z GFS has one on the 9th again now. rolleyes.gif

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 30 2016, 12:14 AM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Dec 29 2016, 11:07 PM) *
0z GFS has one on the 9th again now. rolleyes.gif


Plenty of time to get the energy figured out.

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 30 2016, 12:38 AM

From Larry Cosgrove...https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove/posts/10158101355650235

QUOTE
Note the second storm couplet near the International Dateline, which has emerged as a credible snow and ice threat from N TX/OK into the Mid-South and Mid-Atlantic from Jan 5 - 8.

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 01:24 AM

I'm assuming everybody's up for the euro?

Posted by: jdrenken Dec 30 2016, 01:24 AM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 29 2016, 09:25 PM) *
Thanks for posting! To give a better view though, I'd use http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html as you can see the precip field of each member even better than the weatherbell maps.


MREF individuals aren't updated yet, but the 552dm line which is green shows DELMARVA has a tight cluster. Ironically enough, it's the only place on the globe that shows such a tight cluster.

Yes, I understand that the time stamps don't match but that happens when the first image is from the 18z.


EDIT: realized i had the wrong dm...

Original thought is still there. 552dm cluster is best in DELMARVA. Still a better view...

Posted by: so_whats_happening Dec 30 2016, 04:17 AM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 30 2016, 03:24 AM) *
MREF individuals aren't updated yet, but the 552dm line which is green shows DELMARVA has a tight cluster. Ironically enough, it's the only place on the globe that shows such a tight cluster.

Yes, I understand that the time stamps don't match but that happens when the first image is from the 18z.


EDIT: realized i had the wrong dm...

Original thought is still there. 552dm cluster is best in DELMARVA. Still a better view...


Now this I have been keeping my eye on for awhile. The pattern looks fairly interesting with this one and could throw a surprise toward the end of the time period.

I dont want to stick my head too far out but I would say a situation of a stalled front look to it crossing the area with Arctic air behind it being the forcer. As that front sags south areas of energy from the Pacific Low, that digs out there, get thrown into the flow and carry with it their own batches of precip. Depending on placement will allow for wintry versus rainy. Might be a series that as the last of the series comes through might get caught by a diving piece of energy. Most models have shown it occurring off shore for now but a fairly tricky pattern for models to handle also. If I had to compare a system similar I believe a good suit would be the storm that occurred on March 4-6th,2015.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/WSS20150304

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 30 2016, 06:59 AM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 30 2016, 12:01 AM) *
We need the "Clapper Tracker" in the morning! laugh.gif

It is faster than the GFS.


wink.gif I spend too much timing tracking enough 0 to <1" storms .. not sure I want to chase something that is definitely going to slide south and not be a widespread snow for most of us. wink.gif

Posted by: MD Blue Ridge Dec 30 2016, 09:19 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 30 2016, 06:59 AM) *
wink.gif I spend too much timing tracking enough 0 to <1" storms .. not sure I want to chase something that is definitely going to slide south and not be a widespread snow for most of us. wink.gif


Cool, thanks.

Posted by: albanyweather Dec 30 2016, 09:20 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 30 2016, 06:59 AM) *
wink.gif I spend too much timing tracking enough 0 to <1" storms .. not sure I want to chase something that is definitely going to slide south and not be a widespread snow for most of us. wink.gif

HAHA I was looking at the next storm when I deleted my post. Regardless we need to see if the Hudson Bay storm pushes the HP that far south. I temped to think it comes north with the cutter theme this year so far.

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 30 2016, 09:23 AM

QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Dec 30 2016, 09:19 AM) *
Cool, thanks.



QUOTE(albanyweather @ Dec 30 2016, 09:20 AM) *
HAHA I was looking at the next storm when I deleted my post. Regardless we need to see if the Hudson Bay storm pushes the HP that far south. I temped to think it comes north with the cutter theme this year so far.


laugh.gif I'll still play along if it's close, but when the following is said, it certainly puts a damper on things..

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 29 2016, 04:46 PM) *
As I always say...one persons bust is another jackpot! This being a region wide snow event is not in play.


Posted by: Ryan Duff Dec 30 2016, 09:44 AM

00z Euro Control looks like a tornado swath through SC/SE PA on the 7th/8th. 75 mile wide swath of 6-9"

Real suspicious looking,if you ask me.

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 09:47 AM

QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Dec 30 2016, 09:44 AM) *
00z Euro Control looks like a tornado swath through SC/SE PA on the 7th/8th. 75 mile wide swath of 6-9"

Real suspicious looking,if you ask me.

Wait is this the Euro you are talking about. Is there a Euro control that's separate?

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 30 2016, 10:07 AM

Wow. All major models completely shifted to a widespread Miss nada storm

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 10:10 AM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 30 2016, 10:07 AM) *
Wow. All major models completely shifted to a widespread Miss nada storm

It's the wind shield wiper stage. I bet you they will all shift right back to a coastal in no time. And then maybe all to a cutter laugh.gif laugh.gif

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 30 2016, 10:14 AM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 30 2016, 10:10 AM) *
It's the wind shield wiper stage. I bet you they will all shift right back to a coastal in no time. And then maybe all to a cutter laugh.gif laugh.gif


Ehhh time will tell, but I doubt it

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 10:15 AM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 30 2016, 10:14 AM) *
Ehhh time will tell, but I doubt it

So you think they are right right now and it will miss?

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 30 2016, 10:20 AM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 30 2016, 10:15 AM) *
So you think they are right right now and it will miss?


Who knows for sure.... they flip flop so much it's not even realistic at times. The one going going against us is that all the models now basically have the same southern slider idea. But......yesterday they all showed wintry precip for most of us, so the bi-polarness of the models in full effect right now

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 10:28 AM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 30 2016, 10:20 AM) *
Who knows for sure.... they flip flop so much it's not even realistic at times. The one going going against us is that all the models now basically have the same southern slider idea. But......yesterday they all showed wintry precip for most of us, so the bi-polarness of the models in full effect right now

Yeah I see what you mean. In Philly it's hard to stay all snow during storms. The I-95 is literally the rain/snow line most of the time. And so it has to be a perfect setup in order for us folks in the city to get 10+" of snow. Hopefully everything comes together to produce a blinding bombogensis Nor'Easter blizzard laugh.giflaugh.gif

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 10:31 AM

Hopefully today's model runs will get us all in a better mood, AKA coastals

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 30 2016, 11:13 AM

Any indications when the NAO is going to tank and the PNA is going to rise positive? I need winter to start.

Posted by: phillyfan Dec 30 2016, 11:17 AM

GFS 12z already looking different then 6z and 0z.

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 30 2016, 11:19 AM

The 12z gfs already looks a lot better imo. The 500s look better and it reflects at the surface. The one thing I like is how the low hits the 4 corners region. For some reason I always remember those storms being the better ones for the mid atl/ne

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 30 2016, 11:20 AM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Dec 30 2016, 11:17 AM) *
GFS 12z already looking different then 6z and 0z.

Was just popping in to say that too.

Through 144, no "push south" from the north out in the west GL's, should allow this OP run to not be as suppressed as 0z.

Lets see...

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 30 2016, 11:22 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 30 2016, 11:20 AM) *
Was just popping in to say that too.

Through 144, no "push south" from the north out in the west GL's, should allow this OP run to not be as suppressed as 0z.

Lets see...

Indeed...but....ZERO cold air to work it. Maybe warm for us all the way up here

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 30 2016, 11:24 AM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 30 2016, 11:22 AM) *
Indeed...but....ZERO cold air to work it. Maybe warm for us all the way up here

Yeah, at 156 a high is off the in the Atlantic where they seem to live this year.. still, snow line at that pint is still at about mason/dixon

Posted by: phillyfan Dec 30 2016, 11:24 AM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 30 2016, 11:22 AM) *
Indeed...but....ZERO cold air to work it. Maybe warm for us all the way up here

and other runs were too cold and suppressed the storm. rolleyes.gif laugh.gif

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 30 2016, 11:26 AM

Argh, gotta end lunch, but def a nice hit for most of PA, especially turnoike north it appears

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 11:26 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 30 2016, 11:20 AM) *
Was just popping in to say that too.

Through 144, no "push south" from the north out in the west GL's, should allow this OP run to not be as suppressed as 0z.

Lets see...

You realize I opened a thread for the correct dates for the system you are referencing here? wink.gif

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=33024&st=0#entry2164580

Posted by: RobB Dec 30 2016, 11:27 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 11:26 AM) *
You realize I opened a thread for the correct dates for the system you are referencing here? wink.gif

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=33024&st=0#entry2164580



smile.gif

I noticed...

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 30 2016, 11:27 AM

Ok, SEPA not so much.. anyways, later!

Posted by: phillyfan Dec 30 2016, 11:27 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 30 2016, 11:26 AM) *
Argh, gotta end lunch, but def a nice hit for most of PA, especially turnoike north it appears

The spinning wheel of model runs continues. Yesterday 18z was a Saturday night now it's a Friday event on 12z.

Posted by: phillyfan Dec 30 2016, 11:28 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 11:26 AM) *
You realize I opened a thread for the correct dates for the system you are referencing here? wink.gif

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=33024&st=0#entry2164580

Okay now I'm really confused... blink.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 11:33 AM

QUOTE(phillyfan @ Dec 30 2016, 11:28 AM) *
Okay now I'm really confused... blink.gif

Easy to explain. The other thread was originally opened on the CFS version of the dates 6-8. Then our young friend shifted dates and maps to fit his take - to the 9-11, then again to the 7-9 as the models kept shifting.

JD has forbade him from changing yet again, so these dates stick.

Since then you've been following the second wave of a two part wave train. I decided the first wave was most likely the one to actually impact us. So I opened a thread to cover the dates of the first wave. As of right now, the GFS sees the first wave. The second wave, for these dates, slides south and swings right.

Not saying both don't hit. I am saying they both may hit, so we have to discuss each wave separately, as per the rules. smile.gif

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 30 2016, 11:37 AM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 11:33 AM) *
Easy to explain. The other thread was originally opened on the CFS version of the dates 6-8. Then our young friend shifted dates and maps to fit his take - to the 9-11, then again to the 7-9 as the models kept shifting.

JD has forbade him from changing yet again, so these dates stick.

Since then you've been following the second wave of a two part wave train. I decided the first wave was most likely the one to actually impact us. So I opened a thread to cover the dates of the first wave. As of right now, the GFS sees the first wave. The second wave, for these dates, slides south and swings right.

Not saying both don't hit. I am saying they both may hit, so we have to discuss each wave separately, as per the rules. smile.gif


Haha.. we were doing so well after the mid-December craziness with multiple threads.. MJ just opened tomorrow's event I had joked about us not opening until "OBS".

Anyways, that's the risk with opening these up so far out with a random candy shot or two.. sometimes best to just monitor and wait a few more days to let the timing sort out a bit more.

smile.gif Happy New Year.

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 30 2016, 11:37 AM

Why open a New thread when it's clearly the same system? Just change the dates

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 11:40 AM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 30 2016, 11:37 AM) *
Why open a New thread when it's clearly the same system? Just change the dates

Read my post. I said JD forbade changing the dates for the 4th time.




Not to mention it is not the same system. I tried to make that very clear with my original post in the thread I created.

They are not my rules, I only follow them (sound familiar PARD? I've had many officers tell me that very thing during my lifetime)

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 12:04 PM

Lol just saying big the GFS shows a monster snowstorm on the 12th. Not going to even talk about that one right now.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 12:06 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 30 2016, 12:04 PM) *
Lol just saying big the GFS shows a monster snowstorm on the 12th. Not going to even talk about that one right now.

Yes - shhhh, you'll scare both those threats away. laugh.gif

12 z CMC - shows the 2 wave threat better than I can even explain it.

First Wave hitting the MidAtl (other thread) Second wave lies in wait.



Second wave takes its turn



Snow weenie land rejoices!

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 12:07 PM

JUST a tad bit warm for Philly. Models are never good with temps anyway.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 12:09 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 11:40 AM) *
Read my post. I said JD forbade changing the dates for the 4th time.




Not to mention it is not the same system. I tried to make that very clear with my original post in the thread I created.

They are not my rules, I only follow them (sound familiar PARD? I've had many officers tell me that very thing during my lifetime)

It is as JD says in the quoted. TWO systems.

Only difference is the second one comes though with more gusto (as per CMC only at this time - GFS still a wide right miss for wave 2)

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 30 2016, 12:09 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 11:40 AM) *
Read my post. I said JD forbade changing the dates for the 4th time.




Not to mention it is not the same system. I tried to make that very clear with my original post in the thread I created.

They are not my rules, I only follow them (sound familiar PARD? I've had many officers tell me that very thing during my lifetime)

Sorry sir, I didn't read that post.

Posted by: MaineJay Dec 30 2016, 12:13 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 30 2016, 11:37 AM) *
Haha.. we were doing so well after the mid-December craziness with multiple threads.. MJ just opened tomorrow's event I had joked about us not opening until "OBS".

Anyways, that's the risk with opening these up so far out with a random candy shot or two.. sometimes best to just monitor and wait a few more days to let the timing sort out a bit more.

smile.gif Happy New Year.


There's also a rainstorm on the 3-4th that we are all whistling by...

I'm sure everyone knows my thoughts. tongue.gif

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 30 2016, 12:14 PM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 30 2016, 12:13 PM) *
There's also a rainstorm on the 3-4th that we are all whistling by...

I'm sure everyone knows my thoughts. tongue.gif

Hey, how much snow did you end up with this morning?? I heard it trended more east, so I'm assuming it ended up better than you initially planned.

Posted by: RobB Dec 30 2016, 12:15 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 30 2016, 12:14 PM) *
Hey, how much snow did you end up with this morning?? I heard it trended more east, so I'm assuming it ended up better than you initially planned.



I believe he posted a pic with 20 inches in his back yard. Impressive...

Posted by: MaineJay Dec 30 2016, 12:16 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 30 2016, 12:14 PM) *
Hey, how much snow did you end up with this morning?? I heard it trended more east, so I'm assuming it ended up better than you initially planned.


Hammered, there's 20" on the ground, town next to me got 27" , per a NWS employee. Some if the hardest rates I've ever seen, 100% snow, very nice dendrites.

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 30 2016, 12:20 PM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 30 2016, 12:16 PM) *
Hammered, there's 20" on the ground, town next to me got 27" , per a NWS employee. Some if the hardest rates I've ever seen, 100% snow, very nice dendrites.

That's awesome! Congrats. How much were they calling for right before the storm? Didn't they initially think it'd be a bit warm for your area?

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 12:22 PM

They always overshoot temps during these storms m - intense upward motion can generate cold air during a storm, or at least that's what I heard. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Posted by: MaineJay Dec 30 2016, 12:23 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 30 2016, 12:20 PM) *
That's awesome! Congrats. How much were they calling for right before the storm? Didn't they initially think it'd be a bit warm for your area?


Thanks.

Yes, especially some models... But I don't wanna clog the thread. smile.gif Initial WSW was for 6-10"

Posted by: LoveNYCSnow Dec 30 2016, 12:37 PM

Amazing in one day this went from a southern slider to now having to worry about temps and precip type issues.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 12:37 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 30 2016, 12:22 PM) *
They always overshoot temps during these storms m - intense upward motion can generate cold air during a storm, or at least that's what I heard. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Since those very dynamics could come into play for this threat, I'll chime in.

In the sense that what goes up, must come down (one of Newton's Laws, I believe) and every action has an equal and opposite reaction, I would say you are on the right "tracker".

Strong vertical motion (seen on the VV maps on sites such as Pivotal) has to displace the air it is moving into - so that air is forced down through the column. I look for those zones near the front quadrants of the 500mb jet - especially the embedded jet streaks). (edit) That downward motion originates from far above where the air is always very cold. We often see non pressure gradient wind bursts in the more intense scenarios (which can happen in summer storms as well, obviously)

When systems get "wound up" to the point of bombing out, that process can overcome almost any surface temperature issues (case in point, Halloween storm 2011). It was not all fired cold, just cold enough and we had intense rates of snow that added to 6" regionally.

But do "they" always over shoot? I don't think that's true, but we do see it happen during stronger systems.

The event I opened before this one, is more of an over-running type situation, so the cold needs to be here first (and is). This threat, if realized, comes through the natural baroclinic zone just E of the Va Tidewaters. (or there abouts), so intense cyclogenesis may, in fact, come about

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 12:39 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 12:37 PM) *
Since those very dynamics could come into play for this threat, I'll chime in.

In the sense that what goes up, must come down (one of Newton's Laws, I believe) and every action has an equal and opposite reaction, I would say you are on the right "tracker".

Strong vertical motion (seen on the VV maps on sites such as Pivotal) has to displace the air it is moving into - so that air is forced down through the column. I look for those zones near the front quadrants of the 500mb jet - especially the embedded jet streaks).

When systems get "wound up" to the point of bombing out, that process can overcome almost any surface temperature issues (case in point, Halloween storm 2011). It was not all fired cold, just cold enough and we had intense rates of snow that added to 6" regionally.

But do "they" always over shoot? I don't think that's true, but we do see it happen during stronger systems.

The event I opened before this one, is more of an over-running type situation, so the cold needs to be here first (and is). This threat, if realized, comes through the natural baroclinic zone just E of the Va Tidewaters. (or there abouts), so intense cyclogenesis may, in fact, come about

Well I'm hyped!!! Thank you for the explanation Uncle Bill.

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 30 2016, 12:39 PM

Still 6-7 days away from when this system reaches our area. Going to be a long weekend and week. The highs and lows are going to be very real, very real

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 12:41 PM

QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 30 2016, 12:39 PM) *
Still 6-7 days away from when this system reaches our area. Going to be a long weekend and week. The highs and lows are going to be very real, very real

Yes and very crucial. We need a strong and robust high sitting north of the Northeast region, funneling in cold air.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 12:50 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 30 2016, 12:39 PM) *
Well I'm hyped!!! Thank you for the explanation Uncle Bill.

I have to slightly edit one part, but you're welcome.

Posted by: MaineJay Dec 30 2016, 12:54 PM

So, only the 10th isn't covered in the long range? That'll be the stormy day. ph34r.gif


CPC 8-14 analogs, centered on 1/9. Not encouraging


Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 12:55 PM

Also, currently it's flurrying outside. I think it's some leftover lake effect moving SE.

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 30 2016, 12:57 PM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 30 2016, 12:13 PM) *
There's also a rainstorm on the 3-4th that we are all whistling by...

I'm sure everyone knows my thoughts. tongue.gif


laugh.gif I've contemplated opening that one just because of the potential ZR at the onset .. but hard to get excited about a rain storm, for many on here. wink.gif

I guess if I got a nice foot+ storm each year, I'd be a little less ba humbug.. but, a little payoff for time spent on here would be appreciated. (Looking at you, Mother Nature) laugh.gif

Posted by: PA ROAD DAWG Dec 30 2016, 01:01 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 30 2016, 12:41 PM) *
Yes and very crucial. We need a strong and robust high sitting north of the Northeast region, funneling in cold air.

I meant the emotional highs and lows. Haah but yes...we need a high pressure for sure

Posted by: MaineJay Dec 30 2016, 01:04 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 30 2016, 12:57 PM) *
laugh.gif I've contemplated opening that one just because of the potential ZR at the onset .. but hard to get excited about a rain storm, for many on here. wink.gif

I guess if I got a nice foot+ storm each year, I'd be a little less ba humbug.. but, a little payoff for time spent on here would be appreciated. (Looking at you, Mother Nature) laugh.gif


A big reason I moved to Maine was the snow, no lie.

I've almost opened that one twice, but figure it's like rubbing salt in the wounds.

You should look into a winter rental on a lake, you can rent lakeside places for short money in the winter. We have lots of lakes in Maine smile.gif


Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 01:08 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 30 2016, 12:57 PM) *
laugh.gif I've contemplated opening that one just because of the potential ZR at the onset .. but hard to get excited about a rain storm, for many on here. wink.gif

I guess if I got a nice foot+ storm each year, I'd be a little less ba humbug.. but, a little payoff for time spent on here would be appreciated. (Looking at you, Mother Nature) laugh.gif

I'll open it - give it the kiss of death to ward off that evil ZR tongue.gif Or maybe I just get the generator back out - that seems to do as well.

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 30 2016, 01:09 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 01:08 PM) *
I'll open it - give it the kiss of death to ward off that evil ZR tongue.gif Or maybe I just get the generator back out - that seems to do as well.


Cool.. can't wait to report total qpf. dry.gif

laugh.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 01:14 PM

Extended Disco at WPC - chock full of hints and references, not so much on exact detail. Going in both threads (the ones inside of 10 D)

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
157 AM EST THU DEC 29 2016

VALID 12Z SUN JAN 01 2017 - 12Z THU JAN 05 2017

...ARCTIC AIR TO INCREASINGLY SWEEP THE NATION NEXT WEEK IN STORMY
WINTER FLOW...

...GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT AND WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES OVERALL REASONALLY AGREE IN SHOWING THAT
A STRONG NERN PAC MEAN RIDGE WILL ENCOURAGE AMPLIFYING/REINFORCING
WRN US TROUGHING ALOFT NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT SERIES OF SYSTEMS DIG
SHARPLY SOUTHWARD. THESE NEARLY DAILY SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
INTENSE WINTERY PCPN SWATHS ENHANCED SIGNIFICANTLY BY
TERRAIN...BUT WILL ALSO WORK DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST. SUBSEQUENT NEWD EJECTION OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
E-CENTRAL US WILL FURTHER SPIN UP DEEPENED LOWS AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO FOCUS ORGANIZED PCPN INCLUDING AN EMERGING
SRN/E-CENTRAL TO ERN US HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. MEANWHILE EXPECT
OVERTOP QUITE A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH WIDESPREAD RECORD COLD
TEMP POTENTIAL TO INCREASINGLY SPILL DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NATION NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM PASSAGES. THIS SCENARIO
SETS THE STAGE
FOR A PROLONGED PATTERN WITH ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER
THREATS. THIS MAY BE ESPECIALLY PREVALENT BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE
N-CENTRAL US AND WITHIN A LEAD OVERRUNNING THEATA-E ADVECTION
PATTERN.
SMALLER SCALE EMBEDDED SYSTEM TIMINGS AND FLOW
INTERACTIONS ARE LESS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENT OVER TIME...LENDING AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST APPROACH. ACCORDINGLY...THE 12 UTC ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS USED AS A MAIN STARTING POINT FOR PRODUCTION OF
THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE AS IT SEEMS TO BEST PROVIDE A
GOOD COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF DETAILED BUT MORE RUN-RUN VARIED
GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS.

PLEASE REFER TO WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500
MB PROG GRAPHICS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 2.5 KM SENSIBLE WEATHER
GRIDS AND UPCOMING QPF AND WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE FOR MORE COMPREHENSIVE DEPICTION THROUGH MEDIUM RANGE
TIME SCALES.

SCHICHTEL

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 01:22 PM

Could someone post the snow maps for the Euro when it comes? I don't have access to them.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 01:44 PM

Nice look to wave 2


Posted by: PAXpatriot Dec 30 2016, 01:44 PM

Euro looks like it brought back a stronger high, and some more cold air to work with. Should be interesting to see how it pans out.

Posted by: telejunkie Dec 30 2016, 01:45 PM

Still poitive tilt to the trough at hr192 per Euro east of the Miss. Nice looking trough...

 

Posted by: PAXpatriot Dec 30 2016, 01:46 PM

Euro likes the second wave, unlike what the GFS was showing (first wave). This is looking like a nice run for a lot of people.

Posted by: telejunkie Dec 30 2016, 01:47 PM

Would be nice to get more height rise out west so it could dig more...but that's tough to come by these days...

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 01:48 PM

QUOTE(PAXpatriot @ Dec 30 2016, 01:46 PM) *
Euro likes the second wave, unlike what the GFS was showing (first wave). This is looking like a nice run for a lot of people.

Should please many, but could be close temps for the immediate coast. We'll see.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 01:49 PM

QUOTE(telejunkie @ Dec 30 2016, 01:47 PM) *
Would be nice to get more height rise out west so it could dig more...but that's tough to come by these days...

Could cut if so tongue.gif

But I do believe the daily double is well in play here. I like over running events, usually make out very well actually.

Posted by: RobB Dec 30 2016, 01:50 PM

I am moving to Maine. Day 9 Euro smile.gif

 

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 01:51 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Dec 30 2016, 01:50 PM) *
I am moving to Maine. Day 9 Euro smile.gif

Blam - inside 40/70 I do believe. Given the available moisture could be a weenie run with both events combined.

Posted by: LoveNYCSnow Dec 30 2016, 01:51 PM

ECMF looks like a bomb but about a day or maybe even two days later than GFS in timing.

Posted by: PAXpatriot Dec 30 2016, 01:51 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 01:48 PM) *
Should please many, but could be close temps for the immediate coast. We'll see.


Looks like a classic "gotta smell the rain" scenario there. Those that barely stay all snow likely get pounded.

Posted by: phillyfan Dec 30 2016, 01:52 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 01:51 PM) *
Blam - inside 40/70 I do believe. Given the available moisture could be a weenie run with both events combined.

Just catching up thanks for the explanation on the thread dates. Looks to be quite active if we believe the 12z GFS. ohmy.gif

Posted by: PAXpatriot Dec 30 2016, 01:52 PM

QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Dec 30 2016, 01:51 PM) *
ECMF looks like a bomb but about a day or maybe even two days later than GFS in timing.


Euro had been faster than the GFS as of yesterday, so I think all of this timing comes down to which wave gets the focus--is it #1 or #2? I'm rooting for #2, lol.

Posted by: MaineJay Dec 30 2016, 01:53 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Dec 30 2016, 01:50 PM) *
I am moving to Maine. Day 9 Euro smile.gif



Lol, we need people, we have the second oldest population in the country, but they are the toughest old folks you'll find.

Posted by: RobB Dec 30 2016, 01:53 PM

QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Dec 30 2016, 01:51 PM) *
ECMF looks like a bomb but about a day or maybe even two days later than GFS in timing.



Yeah, as many note....Euro slight bias to being slow whereas the GFS fast. Split the difference I suppose..

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 01:53 PM

QUOTE(PAXpatriot @ Dec 30 2016, 01:51 PM) *
Looks like a classic "gotta smell the rain" scenario there. Those that barely stay all snow likely get pounded.

4 panel maps thickness charts suggest all except maybe CC are cold enough.

Posted by: ctdryslot Dec 30 2016, 01:54 PM

QUOTE(PAXpatriot @ Dec 30 2016, 01:44 PM) *
Euro looks like it brought back a stronger high, and some more cold air to work with. Should be interesting to see how it pans out.

Euro looks to be about a 8-12 inch snowfall for PA through CT (generally speaking). I can't post the maps - weather bell. Timing looks to be Saturday/Sunday. Too early for excitement - just glad there is something on the map - - but like most threats, it will probably just rip my heart out and smash it with a hammer in a few short days.


Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 01:54 PM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 30 2016, 01:53 PM) *
Lol, we need people, we have the second oldest population in the country, but they are the toughest old folks you'll find.

I'll move up. Oh wait, that makes the curve go higher. laugh.gif laugh.gif

Posted by: Ryan Duff Dec 30 2016, 01:55 PM

That's a lot of snow. ohmy.gif

Posted by: RobB Dec 30 2016, 01:55 PM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 30 2016, 01:53 PM) *
Lol, we need people, we have the second oldest population in the country, but they are the toughest old folks you'll find.



laugh.gif I won't help the curve much at 48 years of age smile.gif

Posted by: RobB Dec 30 2016, 01:57 PM

Love the holiday slowness here in IT. Listening to Black Sabbath's Paranoid whilst posting model runs smile.gif

Posted by: PAXpatriot Dec 30 2016, 01:57 PM

Biggest concern for my area remains west and warm, so I'm going to hope the EPS shows a slightly further south solution than the OP. Suppression is the least of my worries given the seasonal pattern.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 01:58 PM

QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Dec 30 2016, 01:55 PM) *
That's a lot of snow. ohmy.gif

For your imagination - what IF A (red arrow parcel) manages to catch B (black arrow towards trough) ohmy.gif




Posted by: JDClapper Dec 30 2016, 01:59 PM

QUOTE(ctdryslot @ Dec 30 2016, 01:54 PM) *
Euro looks to be about a 8-12 inch snowfall for PA through CT (generally speaking). I can't post the maps - weather bell. Timing looks to be Saturday/Sunday. Too early for excitement - just glad there is something on the map - - but like most threats, it will probably just rip my heart out and smash it with a hammer in a few short days.


So, a crippling coating, eh? smile.gif laugh.gif

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Dec 30 2016, 02:00 PM

feeling festive in the MW thread, posted an ECM look. Due to the inbetween frames of uncertainty thought it was fair you guys see what transpired between

I waited for the completion in Maine

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 02:00 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 30 2016, 01:59 PM) *
So, a crippling coating, eh? smile.gif laugh.gif

Is that more than a heavy dusting unsure.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 02:01 PM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Dec 30 2016, 02:00 PM) *
feeling festive in the MW thread, posted an ECM look. Due to the inbetween frames of uncertainty thought it was fair you guys see what transpired between

Cool! Appreciated.

Posted by: JDClapper Dec 30 2016, 02:01 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 02:00 PM) *
Is that more than a heavy dusting unsure.gif


Yes, and twice as much as a major trace.

Posted by: telejunkie Dec 30 2016, 02:01 PM

However much I hate to hug a model...Euro to me has outperformed the GFS in the medium-long range from my perspective so as of now will be giving preference in that direction for my thoughts of the upcoming period. Waiting for the GFS in the 120-200hr range to show me something, but Euro continues to seem to do better in this range. GFS I thought did better overall than Euro in the med-short range though with the last system.

PSJust random thoughts as I know I should be backing it up with verification scores and ensembles, but no time currently

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 02:02 PM

Oooh - somebody dropped a whole bunch of candy out in the nether regions of the cyber world



Posted by: phillyfan Dec 30 2016, 02:03 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 02:02 PM) *
Oooh - somebody dropped a whole bunch of candy out in the nether regions of the cyber world



I wub.gif It.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 02:04 PM

MJ gonna need a bigger dog or buy stilts for the pooches.


Posted by: ctdryslot Dec 30 2016, 02:04 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 30 2016, 02:01 PM) *
Yes, and twice as much as a major trace.

Yes, but only on wood and metal surfaces during nighttime hours.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 02:05 PM

Where's my new friend Tracker at? Probably out flying a drone or something. (LOL - j/k)

Posted by: LoveNYCSnow Dec 30 2016, 02:06 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 02:02 PM) *
Oooh - somebody dropped a whole bunch of candy out in the nether regions of the cyber world




wow that has the look a solid snowstorm for almost everyone in the forum which we haven't seen much of in recent years

Posted by: ctdryslot Dec 30 2016, 02:10 PM

Someone else taking notice too...





 

Posted by: phillyfan Dec 30 2016, 02:14 PM

Don't know if it's been mentioned but PA Farm Show Rule in Effect, starts on the 6th.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 02:15 PM

I honestly would not mind one bit if JD allowed the two threads to merge - or at least for one final adjustment to Tracker's thread. It would be so much more convenient. It's still two waves, two storms and rules are the rules - unless they are (puts on Captain Barbosa voice) "guidelines" laugh.gif

Posted by: MDSnowKing Dec 30 2016, 02:17 PM

Sorry. On my phone. That is the Euro snow map?! Wowza!
Nevermind. Figured it out.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 02:19 PM

12z MREF wave 2 - note that some ensembles merge both systems into one




Posted by: USCG AST Dec 30 2016, 02:22 PM

QUOTE(ctdryslot @ Dec 30 2016, 03:10 PM) *
Someone else taking notice too...



If the Euro sees this in 48 hrs, I'll begin to give this storm some credence.

EDIT : Though the meteorological components of this tends to make sense.

Posted by: LUCC Dec 30 2016, 02:23 PM

Well, looks like this will be the first week this winter season that I will not be getting work done next week. About time!

Posted by: ctdryslot Dec 30 2016, 02:23 PM

QUOTE(USCG AST @ Dec 30 2016, 02:22 PM) *
If the Euro sees this in 48 hrs, I'll begin to give this storm some credence.

agree 100%.

Posted by: Ryan Duff Dec 30 2016, 02:23 PM

P-type maps are value-add so I created a gif with the encouragement of RM himself. Already circulating on twitter, but here ya go.

(Click to animate)



Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 02:24 PM

And the new kid gets the credit for starting the topic thank you very much.

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 02:25 PM

BTW how does the Euro perform for Philly? Temps okay?

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 02:25 PM

QUOTE(USCG AST @ Dec 30 2016, 02:22 PM) *
If the Euro sees this in 48 hrs, I'll begin to give this storm some credence.

I'm trusting the pattern suggested by the tele's - (-) NAO transitioning to neutral, strong (-) EPO. (dislodges cold air, wavesenter mid lat flow)




AO strongly trending (-) (unleashes the cold air Eastward)




Posted by: Ryan Duff Dec 30 2016, 02:27 PM

*curses bottom of the page curse, yet again*

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 02:27 PM

QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Dec 30 2016, 02:23 PM) *
P-type maps are value-add so I created a gif with the encouragement of RM himself. Already circulating on twitter, but here ya go.

(Click to animate)



Bottom dweller


Posted by: USCG AST Dec 30 2016, 02:27 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 03:25 PM) *
I'm trusting the pattern suggested by the tele's - (-) NAO transitioning to neutral, strong (-) EPO. (dislodges cold air, wavesenter mid lat flow)




AO strongly trending (-) (unleashes the cold air Eastward)

Yeah brother, I just edited the post saying that the components making up this storm, meteorologically, tens to make sense

Posted by: colonel717 Dec 30 2016, 02:27 PM

QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Dec 30 2016, 02:23 PM) *
P-type maps are value-add so I created a gif with the encouragement of RM himself. Already circulating on twitter, but here ya go.

(Click to animate)




I am thinking Steelers will play Miami Sat night, if so looks like it could be a snowy game.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 02:27 PM

QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Dec 30 2016, 02:27 PM) *
*curses bottom of the page curse, yet again*



QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 02:27 PM) *
Bottom dweller

laugh.gif

I tried to pull forward sad.gif

Posted by: Ryan Duff Dec 30 2016, 02:29 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 02:27 PM) *
laugh.gif

I tried to pull forward sad.gif


LOL. It was a good effort anyway.

Posted by: LoveNYCSnow Dec 30 2016, 02:30 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 30 2016, 02:25 PM) *
BTW how does the Euro perform for Philly? Temps okay?


Looks like there is some mixing and even changeover to rain for I95 and points SE but basically everyone is at least 8+

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 02:30 PM

QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Dec 30 2016, 02:30 PM) *
Looks like there is some mixing and even changeover to rain for I95 and points SE but basically everyone is at least 8+

So that candy map was the Euro 12Z?

Posted by: phillyPete Dec 30 2016, 02:32 PM

QUOTE(LUCC @ Dec 30 2016, 02:23 PM) *
Well, looks like this will be the first week this winter season that I will not be getting work done next week. About time!

Lol, yes! I've been way too productive so far this season. laugh.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 02:33 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 30 2016, 02:30 PM) *
So that candy map was the Euro 12Z?

Yes, both waves included. NADS (nickle and dime) first wave, robust second wave (emerges from the S towing good amount of GOM moisture)


Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 02:34 PM

QUOTE(LUCC @ Dec 30 2016, 02:23 PM) *
Well, looks like this will be the first week this winter season that I will not be getting work done next week. About time!

Good thing I schedule next week off work cool.gif

I'll be here to confound you all for the duration. laugh.gif

Posted by: Ryan Duff Dec 30 2016, 02:37 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 02:33 PM) *
Yes, both waves included. NADS (nickle and dime) first wave, robust second wave (emerges from the S towing good amount of GOM moisture)


Love me some good NADS tongue.gif

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 02:42 PM

To show that ol UTS has a sense of humor, I've created a poll on the thread I started. Maybe we can convince JD wink.gif laugh.gif



Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 02:45 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 02:42 PM) *
To show that ol UTS has a sense of humor, I've created a poll on the thread I started. Maybe we can convince JD wink.gif laugh.gif



I think there is tons of thoughtful knowledge on both. I'd say combine them.

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 02:50 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 30 2016, 02:45 PM) *
I think there is tons of thoughtful knowledge on both. I'd say combine them.

Then feel free to go over to that thread and vote. smile.gif

(disclaimer - the creation of the poll is NOT to drive traffic to "my" thread - such a notion is prima facie ridiculous.)

Posted by: StormTracker Dec 30 2016, 02:51 PM

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 30 2016, 02:50 PM) *
Then feel free to go over to that thread and vote. smile.gif

(disclaimer - the creation of the poll is NOT to drive traffic to "my" thread - such a notion is prima facie ridiculous.)

Vote is in

Posted by: Undertakerson Dec 30 2016, 02:56 PM

QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 30 2016, 02:51 PM) *
Vote is in

Off topic but did you know how to create a poll?

If not, you can edit the original post (but don't let JD catch you adjusting the post or the dates - LOL), then look for "manage topic poll" - I'm sure you're savvy enough to figure the rest out.

Doing so can add a layer of "fun" to all of this, or help decide an important question if you prefer. smile.gif

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