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> Jan. 7-9 Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
Undertakerson
post Dec 28 2016, 05:49 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 28 2016, 05:24 PM) *
I didn't even realize the original dates were the 6th-8th! That being said...let's allow this to die since it was based on the CFS anyway.

That would be OK --

IF the GFS didn't just put this out on the 18z Op run blink.gif


Attached Image


And then this.

18z GFS is NO HELP AT ALL to sorting this out. laugh.gif


Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Dec 28 2016, 06:02 PM
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StormTracker
post Dec 28 2016, 06:07 PM
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Well at the time the GFS didn't support a coastal storm
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shaulov4
post Dec 28 2016, 06:23 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 28 2016, 05:49 PM) *
That would be OK --

IF the GFS didn't just put this out on the 18z Op run blink.gif


Attached Image


And then this.

18z GFS is NO HELP AT ALL to sorting this out. laugh.gif


Attached Image


Euro ESP Control and The operational are both showing the potential with the ESP being more robust.
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Undertakerson
post Dec 28 2016, 06:31 PM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Dec 28 2016, 06:23 PM) *
Euro ESP Control and The operational are both showing the potential with the ESP being more robust.

Which system? 18z goes a bit bonkers and just keeps landing on the "free spin" bonus. laugh.gif

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...=0&ypos=187

Where's that Oprah meme?

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Dec 28 2016, 06:32 PM
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shaulov4
post Dec 28 2016, 06:35 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 28 2016, 06:31 PM) *
Which system? 18z goes a bit bonkers and just keeps landing on the "free spin" bonus. laugh.gif

The first one only, it shows a heavy Greenland blocking signal.
As you can see the chart supports this as well.


You never know...
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jacksonjeff
post Dec 28 2016, 06:38 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 28 2016, 06:31 PM) *
Which system? 18z goes a bit bonkers and just keeps landing on the "free spin" bonus. laugh.gif

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...=0&ypos=187

Where's that Oprah meme?

Lol
The 1059 high in Montana is always a winner for us!!!
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Undertakerson
post Dec 28 2016, 06:43 PM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Dec 28 2016, 06:35 PM) *
The first one only, it shows a heavy Greenland blocking signal.
As you can see the chart supports this as well.


You never know...

Even better - transitional.


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Undertakerson
post Dec 28 2016, 06:44 PM
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QUOTE(jacksonjeff @ Dec 28 2016, 06:38 PM) *
Lol
The 1059 high in Montana is always a winner for us!!!

Forecast the High(s) - forecast the (snow) storm. wink.gif
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Snobal
post Dec 28 2016, 08:06 PM
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I like this time period however the PNA has me very concerned


--------------------
Annual Snowfall:
16'/17' = 32"
15'/16' = 24"
14'/15' = 49"
13'/14' = 55"

Historical Average : 40"
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StormTracker
post Dec 28 2016, 08:28 PM
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QUOTE(Snobal @ Dec 28 2016, 08:06 PM) *
I like this time period however the PNA has me very concerned

PNA??
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SnowMan11
post Dec 28 2016, 08:32 PM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 09:28 PM) *
PNA??


You shouldnt be if the EPO and WPO are very negative


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Anthony
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StormTracker
post Dec 28 2016, 08:43 PM
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No I mean what is PNA?
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Snobal
post Dec 28 2016, 09:35 PM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 08:43 PM) *
No I mean what is PNA?

Its relationship has to do with the troughing and ridging in the west. you want to see a +PNA in order to get snowstorms in the mid-atlantic. the PNA has been a thorn in our side all year and its still forecasted to be negative according to the teleconnections posted above.


--------------------
Annual Snowfall:
16'/17' = 32"
15'/16' = 24"
14'/15' = 49"
13'/14' = 55"

Historical Average : 40"
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SnowMan11
post Dec 28 2016, 09:36 PM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 09:43 PM) *
No I mean what is PNA?


http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/PNA.html


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jdrenken
post Dec 28 2016, 09:39 PM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 28 2016, 07:43 PM) *
No I mean what is PNA?


One of the big four teleconnections. Pacific-North American loading pattern has a negative correlation. If the PNA is negative, generally areas east of the Mississippi River are warmer than normal. That being said, if other teleconnections overwhelm one of the others it looses out it's characteristics somewhat.

Hence why we see the -EPO/WPO combination flood the Rockies so much that the cold anomalies bleed East.


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JDClapper
post Dec 28 2016, 10:18 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 28 2016, 06:43 PM) *
Even better - transitional.


Attached Image


I prefer my NAO going positive for my bigguns. smile.gif (It can be negative or positive, but best to be going in the positive direction) wink.gif

How about some 12z GEFS. Some eye candies in there.

I dunno what happened with the opening dates and this and that.. but as the dates are set now, this one might not die a quick death, if it dies at all.

Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
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phillyfan
post Dec 28 2016, 11:40 PM
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0z GFS has the looks of a southern Slider on the 7th now. Keep spinning the wheel.


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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stxprowl
post Dec 28 2016, 11:47 PM
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Only one more years of runs to go! biggrin.gif
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stxprowl
post Dec 28 2016, 11:52 PM
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Forget threading the needle, the stripe of snow would be a needle. Finally some kind of candy to at least give some hope.
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phillyfan
post Dec 29 2016, 12:15 AM
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Warms up by the 11th then too...


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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