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> Jan. 7-9 Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
SteelerFan420
post Dec 29 2016, 02:38 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 28 2016, 12:28 PM) *
A thread created based on the CFS blink.gif ...you are bold aren't you!

I don't mind, Been dying to read something/anything at all for MidAtl
CFS can't be wrong forever, Can it?
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile


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Red sky at night, sailorís delight.
Red
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Undertakerson
post Dec 29 2016, 03:27 AM
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Attached Image
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MaineJay
post Dec 29 2016, 03:43 AM
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From the organic forecasting thread. Please allow a little "wiggle"

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Dec 22 2016, 04:23 AM) *
After weeks of boring SOI deltas, we finally got a little action.

I'm probably trying to get too cute here, but could this signal a pumped up ridge moving through the eastern CONUS Jan 8-9ish, with a sharp trof to follow?

[attachment=305902:Screensh..._16_47_1.png]



--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Undertakerson
post Dec 29 2016, 04:24 AM
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Here's the "problem" with starting a LR thread and not being specific as to which bundle of energy you are attributing to being the genesis of the threat.

This thread started for dates of 6-8, offering only the CFS for support - and one frame at that (the "candy" as we call it).

Then, the next run of the GFS caused a date shift to the 9-11 - again, the dates changed to match the candy shot.

Then, the models spun the wheel once again went round and round - now we have a compromise date change to the 7-9.

Now, the 00z GFSp runs and shows this

A system for the threads original dates - actually, two of them if one wants to get technical


Attached Image



Attached Image


AND one for the adjusted date when it was the 9th - which would be the what? second or third adjustment?


Attached Image


Stormtracker - I'm giving you a lot of slack with this. You have told us that you are quite young. And I get that you're getting "anxious". Therefore, you are very "green" at doing this. That is why I asked you to check with Renken (or any moderator).

Now, we (still) have a mess to sort out.

My vote is that the thread dates get changed back to original - and don't change them EVER. Especially in a very fast paced pattern we'll need to be very careful. EVEN those of us who've known the ropes for a while.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Dec 29 2016, 04:35 AM
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conifer1
post Dec 29 2016, 06:39 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 05:24 AM) *
Here's the "problem" with starting a LR thread and not being specific as to which bundle of energy you are attributing to being the genesis of the threat.

This thread started for dates of 6-8, offering only the CFS for support - and one frame at that (the "candy" as we call it).

Then, the next run of the GFS caused a date shift to the 9-11 - again, the dates changed to match the candy shot.

Then, the models spun the wheel once again went round and round - now we have a compromise date change to the 7-9.

Now, the 00z GFSp runs and shows this

A system for the threads original dates - actually, two of them if one wants to get technical


Attached Image



Attached Image


AND one for the adjusted date when it was the 9th - which would be the what? second or third adjustment?


Attached Image


Stormtracker - I'm giving you a lot of slack with this. You have told us that you are quite young. And I get that you're getting "anxious". Therefore, you are very "green" at doing this. That is why I asked you to check with Renken (or any moderator).

Now, we (still) have a mess to sort out.

My vote is that the thread dates get changed back to original - and don't change them EVER. Especially in a very fast paced pattern we'll need to be very careful. EVEN those of us who've known the ropes for a while.


Spoken like a true moderator! Err, wait a second....


--------------------
Snow in the South is wonderful. It has a kind of magic and mystery that it has nowhere else. And the reason for this is that it comes to people in the South not as the grim, unyielding tenant of Winter's keep, but as a strange and wild visitor from the secret North - Thomas Wolfe
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Undertakerson
post Dec 29 2016, 06:42 AM
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QUOTE(conifer1 @ Dec 29 2016, 06:39 AM) *
Spoken like a true moderator! Err, wait a second....

laugh.gif laugh.gif

Honestly, only trying to help.

If I were a Mod, I would lock this threads dates and not allow any change. tongue.gif
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MD Blue Ridge
post Dec 29 2016, 06:49 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 06:42 AM) *
laugh.gif laugh.gif

Honestly, only trying to help.

If I were a Mod, I would lock this threads dates and not allow any change. tongue.gif


I, for one am glad your power is limited Mussolini, er, I mean UT. smile.gif

Thread dates are a tricky game, and not trying to copy MJ, but long range is painfully difficult.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


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NorEaster07
post Dec 29 2016, 07:37 AM
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btw.. Euro00z January 7th

Swath of 3-8" from Kansas, Arkansas, TN, Kentucky, Virginias and NJ.

8"+ for higher hills of WV and PA

(last frame)


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NorEaster07
post Dec 29 2016, 07:46 AM
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Euro00zEPScontrol stays south with the storm. Exits Carolinas
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conifer1
post Dec 29 2016, 07:52 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 07:42 AM) *
laugh.gif laugh.gif

Honestly, only trying to help.

If I were a Mod, I would lock this threads dates and not allow any change. tongue.gif


As a college professor, teaching Online courses, I do that very thing! Perhaps all involved will have learned a couple of takeaways from this experience.


--------------------
Snow in the South is wonderful. It has a kind of magic and mystery that it has nowhere else. And the reason for this is that it comes to people in the South not as the grim, unyielding tenant of Winter's keep, but as a strange and wild visitor from the secret North - Thomas Wolfe
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StormTracker
post Dec 29 2016, 07:53 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Dec 29 2016, 07:37 AM) *
btw.. Euro00z January 7th

Swath of 3-8" from Kansas, Arkansas, TN, Kentucky, Virginias and NJ.

8"+ for higher hills of WV and PA

(last frame)


Attached Image

What about for Pa
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hack5
post Dec 29 2016, 10:14 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Dec 29 2016, 04:24 AM) *
Here's the "problem" with starting a LR thread and not being specific as to which bundle of energy you are attributing to being the genesis of the threat.

This thread started for dates of 6-8, offering only the CFS for support - and one frame at that (the "candy" as we call it).

Then, the next run of the GFS caused a date shift to the 9-11 - again, the dates changed to match the candy shot.

Then, the models spun the wheel once again went round and round - now we have a compromise date change to the 7-9.

Now, the 00z GFSp runs and shows this

A system for the threads original dates - actually, two of them if one wants to get technical


Attached Image



Attached Image


AND one for the adjusted date when it was the 9th - which would be the what? second or third adjustment?


Attached Image


Stormtracker - I'm giving you a lot of slack with this. You have told us that you are quite young. And I get that you're getting "anxious". Therefore, you are very "green" at doing this. That is why I asked you to check with Renken (or any moderator).

Now, we (still) have a mess to sort out.

My vote is that the thread dates get changed back to original - and don't change them EVER. Especially in a very fast paced pattern we'll need to be very careful. EVEN those of us who've known the ropes for a while.

Woah. This is an amateur weather discussion forum. Take it easy buddy. You just spent several paragraphs blasting a kid because the date on a potential storm had to be changed a couple of times. Let's try to keep some perspective here.
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StormTracker
post Dec 29 2016, 10:30 AM
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QUOTE(hack5 @ Dec 29 2016, 10:14 AM) *
Woah. This is an amateur weather discussion forum. Take it easy buddy. You just spent several paragraphs blasting a kid because the date on a potential storm had to be changed a couple of times. Let's try to keep some perspective here.

Thank you so much. UTS, i bet you when you were 15 you weren't nearly as good as half of my ability. laugh.gif seriously though, take it easy. It's only a date

This post has been edited by StormTracker: Dec 29 2016, 10:30 AM
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clindner00
post Dec 29 2016, 10:59 AM
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QUOTE(hack5 @ Dec 29 2016, 10:14 AM) *
Woah. This is an amateur weather discussion forum. Take it easy buddy. You just spent several paragraphs blasting a kid because the date on a potential storm had to be changed a couple of times. Let's try to keep some perspective here.

I did not take it at all as UTS blasting Stormtracker. He is more or less trying to help guide him to make things easier on all members. There could potentially be 3 storms during the dates that were used so we just need to focus on one bundle of energy. However, it is very difficult in the long range since it will change a million times until then. We generally try to start threads within 6-7 days at most this year to help eliminate any confusion and that's still technically long range.
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kdskidoo
post Dec 29 2016, 10:59 AM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 10:30 AM) *
Thank you so much. UTS, i bet you when you were 15 you weren't nearly as good as half of my ability. laugh.gif seriously though, take it easy. It's only a date


dates are important when talking about events in the weather more than a week in advance. it can be confusing when there are multiple waves or storms showing up on models and both are being discussed in the same thread. that's why , IMO, threads shouldn't be started for storms more than a week in advance, but should be discussed in a separate thread titled " pattern discussion" or in the long range thread. too many times storms that appear on models with that much lead time will either disappear entirely or be delayed till a later date. I know we all want a good storm to track for as long as we can, myself included, and I'm not busting on anyone, I just think threads shouldn't be started for storms 10 days out.


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2015/16 snow totals

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MD Blue Ridge
post Dec 29 2016, 11:05 AM
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QUOTE(clindner00 @ Dec 29 2016, 10:59 AM) *
I did not take it at all as UTS blasting Stormtracker. He is more or less trying to help guide him to make things easier on all members. There could potentially be 3 storms during the dates that were used so we just need to focus on one bundle of energy. However, it is very difficult in the long range since it will change a million times until then. We generally try to start threads within 6-7 days at most this year to help eliminate any confusion and that's still technically long range.


Agreed. Translation can be difficult in print. UT means no harm. I assure you.

Storm Tracker I enjoy your youthful exuberance and energy, opening threads is tricky business and something many folks in here take very seriously. All is well.


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StormTracker
post Dec 29 2016, 11:12 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Dec 29 2016, 11:05 AM) *
Agreed. Translation can be difficult in print. UT means no harm. I assure you.

Storm Tracker I enjoy your youthful exuberance and energy, opening threads is tricky business and something many folks in here take very seriously. All is well.

Thank you.
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SnowMan11
post Dec 29 2016, 11:34 AM
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CMC shows a big storm along the coast


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Anthony
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StormTracker
post Dec 29 2016, 11:36 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Dec 29 2016, 11:34 AM) *
CMC shows a big storm along the coast

Does it? It only has loaded up to the third for me
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Snobal
post Dec 29 2016, 11:39 AM
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QUOTE(StormTracker @ Dec 29 2016, 10:30 AM) *
Thank you so much. UTS, i bet you when you were 15 you weren't nearly as good as half of my ability. laugh.gif seriously though, take it easy. It's only a date

It is ok that you did this because it is your first time and you dont know yet how it works around here but next time try not to start a thread until we are inside of 7 days of threat.


--------------------
Annual Snowfall:
16'/17' = 32"
15'/16' = 24"
14'/15' = 49"
13'/14' = 55"

Historical Average : 40"
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