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phillyfan
Rank: F5 Superstorm
27 years old
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Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Born Dec-21-1989
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phillyfan

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14 Feb 2017
Opening a thread for this proverbially rain storm. Will assume rain storm for now, but last 2 runs of GFS not set in stone yet:
6z GFS:


0z GFS:
30 Jan 2017
Figured I'd take a chance and a open a thread for this system now. Been showing up on the last 4 runs of the GFS:

18z


0z:


6z:


12z:
20 Jul 2016
Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NY AND
PA TO NORTHERN OH/INDIANA/IL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WESTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DAMPEN SOME ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WELL-FORECAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND PERHAPS
REACHING ND/SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z SATURDAY. WHILE AN ELONGATED
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM CA TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THIS REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MT FRIDAY
WITH THIS LOW MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT. EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW VARIES AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...GIVEN
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.

...NORTHEAST STATES...
NY INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUPPORTS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING IN
THAT PART OF THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
DESTABILIZATION THIS FORECAST PERIOD...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AREAS OF CLOUDINESS FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE EML
AND SOME SURFACE HEATING...MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST ORGANIZED STORMS
WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS DEEP-LAYER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

...SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD EXTENT FROM NY/PA TO NORTHERN
IL. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR WEAKENS WITH WESTWARD EXTENT SUGGESTING
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
17 Jul 2016
Figured I'd start a thread for tomorrow:
Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
DELMARVA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.

...OH VALLEY/NERN US...

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE TRANSLATING INTO THE SERN PROVINCES
OF CANADA. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY 18Z FROM ERN OH INTO UPSTATE NY. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AMPLE BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING FOR ROBUST
UPDRAFTS WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE EXPANDED 15 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
DEVELOPING BY MID DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. WITH DEEP-LAYER
FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION...CONVECTION SHOULD
PROPAGATE STEADILY TOWARD THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR STRONG
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS IND/IL INTO SRN IA. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR WHETHER A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AID TSTM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THIS REGION BUT STRONG HEATING AND SUBSTANTIAL QPF IN LATEST
GUIDANCE FAVOR EXPANDING MRGL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY.
1 Jul 2016
Figured I'd open another thread for this upcoming Tuesday MCS.

18z NAM - That's as far north as it gets on that run


12z NAM - Was a little more south then 18z was


18z GFS - Only has this


HPC has bumped the precip a bit more north:
Attached Image
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14 Mar 2017 - 9:14


23 Feb 2017 - 16:16


10 Feb 2017 - 19:29


6 Feb 2017 - 21:45


2 Feb 2017 - 13:14

Comments
bubbles
Howdy!
28 Nov 2008 - 11:37
Eaglesfan412
Go Birds!
11 Feb 2008 - 23:04

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