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> January 2nd-4th MidAtl / NE storm, Possibility: Medium range (4-8 days out)
jordan4385
post Dec 23 2013, 05:39 PM
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GFS has been pretty consistant with a storm here. from what i hear the teleconnections are pretty good so maybe a thread should be created?

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/...mb&hour=240

This post has been edited by jordan4385: Dec 25 2013, 12:17 AM


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BtownWxWatcher
post Dec 23 2013, 06:22 PM
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0z and 6z GFS were mainly South and OTS + Weaker, still there though. 12z and 18z are decent sized Snow/Ice storms for the Mid Atlantic/Northeast near the Day 11 timeframe (Make the title January 2-4 maybe)?


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east coast storm
post Dec 23 2013, 06:27 PM
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QUOTE(jordan4385 @ Dec 23 2013, 05:39 PM) *
GFS has been pretty consistant with a storm here. from what i hear the teleconnections are pretty good so maybe a thread should be created?

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/...mb&hour=240

The 18Z GFS showed a coastal low east of NJ in this timeframe. Will see what happens.
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clindner00
post Dec 23 2013, 11:48 PM
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Monster storm on 00z gfs
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jordan4385
post Dec 23 2013, 11:50 PM
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There are our 2 players. It seems that most models now agree that that the cut off low ( it IS a cutoff low right? im new. ) and a potent clipper system will be entering the states in about 192 hours.

GFS:



EURO:
www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013122312&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=192

GGEM:


pretty good chance here id say for a storm. maybe an east coast storm. maybe a GLC. who knows.

This post has been edited by jordan4385: Dec 23 2013, 11:52 PM


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PA ROAD DAWG
post Dec 24 2013, 12:03 AM
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One thing on our side is that the nao is tanking hard during this timeframe. That's money for the east coast, not a glc.
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clindner00
post Dec 24 2013, 12:18 AM
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The good thing is that we should start being able to look at the euro for a wave of low pressure in the southern states as of 0z runs. I'm curious to see what hours 216 and 240 start putting out tonight.
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jordan4385
post Dec 24 2013, 01:41 AM
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the low in the SW disappeared in the euro. the clipper is still there at 192 however.


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BtownWxWatcher
post Dec 24 2013, 08:52 AM
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Still there 6z GFS, way south and weaker though


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ranaseagoddess
post Dec 24 2013, 11:02 AM
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To be honest, this would really stink for me ... I'm due in the hospital on January 2nd for a back surgery and scheduled to stay 1-2 nights. I don't want to be stuck IN the hospital because of snow! Now, once I get home I couldn't care less if it snows 3 feet deep!
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clindner00
post Dec 24 2013, 11:55 AM
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12z gfs brought the storm up the coast around the 2nd and 3rd of Jan. Was much stronger than the 6z. Really interested to see if this keeps showing up earlier on the Gfs to match the CMC model which appears to bring it in around the 31st of December. I think these are both the same system but showing differences in timing.
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clindner00
post Dec 24 2013, 12:00 PM
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12z gfs
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Dec 24 2013, 12:15 PM
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Interesting period.
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BtownWxWatcher
post Dec 24 2013, 12:19 PM
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12z CMC might have it at 240hrs, slower and south


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Beers1
post Dec 24 2013, 12:18 PM
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Looks like a big rain storm for I95 on the GFS no?
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clindner00
post Dec 24 2013, 12:20 PM
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QUOTE(Beers1 @ Dec 24 2013, 12:18 PM) *
Looks like a big rain storm for I95 on the GFS no?

If you take this run verbatim, I'd be more concerned about ice along I-95
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jordan4385
post Dec 24 2013, 12:27 PM
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QUOTE(Beers1 @ Dec 24 2013, 12:18 PM) *
Looks like a big rain storm for I95 on the GFS no?


ice maybe, but no one is taking this run verbatim at this point. just be happy that the players are still in the stadium.


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jordan4385
post Dec 24 2013, 01:48 PM
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seems like the sw energy just meanders on the euro,


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JDClapper
post Dec 24 2013, 03:30 PM
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PURELY for fun, at this point. 12z GFS snowmap.

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jordan4385
post Dec 24 2013, 05:34 PM
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18z gfs almost trying to phase withing high res time. and another cut off low trying to enter the field fro m the same spot?


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