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RobB
Posted on: May 22 2018, 12:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 0489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Indiana...Ohio...Far Northwest Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 221657Z - 221930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop this afternoon
from eastern Indiana east-northeastward across Ohio into far
northwest Pennsylvania. Wind damage and isolated large hail are
expected to be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will need
to be considered as storms increase in coverage and intensity.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front located from
northwest Ohio southwestward into west-central Indiana. Surface
dewpoints along and just ahead of the front are in the upper 60s to
near 70 F. Surface temperatures are now in the 75 to 80 F range and
the RAP is analyzing a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE
of 1000 to 1500 J/k across eastern Indiana and western Ohio.
Thunderstorms have developed over the last hour along the front near
the strongest instability. Thunderstorms will continue to expand in
coverage as low-level convergence increases along the front and as a
shortwave trough moves from west to east across the region. In
addition to the instability, regional WSR-88D VWPs show moderate
deep-layer shear. For example, the Cleveland VWP has 0-6 km shear
near 30 kt with unidirectional winds from the west-southwest. This
wind profile should support a potential for damaging wind gusts with
multicells especially as low-level lapse rates steepen over the next
few hours. Cells that have rotation may also be capable of producing
isolated large hail.

..Broyles/Weiss.. 05/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 42068049 42048150 41878255 41238391 40248550 39818581
39258563 38958505 38788372 39488188 40958016 41657990
42068049
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328885 · Replies: · Views: 3,434

RobB
Posted on: May 22 2018, 11:42 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328884 · Replies: · Views: 3,434

RobB
Posted on: May 22 2018, 11:39 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


SPC Update:

QUOTE
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast mainly this
afternoon and evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and
Ohio Valley, as well as over portions of the High Plains and
north-central Rockies.

...Upper Ohio Valley...
Visible imagery indicates thinning cloud cover over Indiana and much
of Ohio which will permit stronger diabatic heating and air mass
destabilization to occur this afternoon, in advance of a
southeastward moving cold front located from extreme northwest Ohio
into southwest Indiana. The decrease in cloud cover will spread
into western Pennsylvania with time and contribute to a gradual
increase in heating. MLCAPE is expected to reach 1000-1500 J/kg,
with greater instability expected with westward extent.

Short bands of mainly shallow convection are developing along/ahead
of the front from northwest Ohio into east central Indiana.
Updrafts within this activity are expected to strengthen with
several bands of northeast-southwest oriented thunderstorms forming
by early-mid afternoon. The storms will be located on the southern
edge of stronger westerly winds aloft, including the right entrance
region of an upper level jet, resulting in deep layer shear of 30-40
kt that will enhance storm organization and intensity. Stronger
cells will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts with isolated
hail also possible mainly with any storms that are able to develop
transient updraft rotation. The activity will spread eastward and
southeastward through the evening hours before storms gradually
weaken as boundary layer cooling and low-level stabilization occurs.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328882 · Replies: · Views: 3,434

RobB
Posted on: May 15 2018, 11:21 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16






QUOTE
SPC AC 151613

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST
PA...FAR NORTHERN NJ...SOUTHERN NY...NORTHWEST CT...SOUTHWEST MA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and scattered large hail
is expected across parts of the Northeast States this afternoon into
early evening.

...Northeast States...
Convective evolution will be tied to an MCV and small convective
cluster currently ongoing near the OH/PA border. Robust diabatic
heating is underway ahead of this feature with trailing outflow from
a lead convective cluster currently crossing the Hudson Valley. 12Z
Pittsburgh sounding sampled a favorable environment for
destabilization with an EML yielding steep mid-level lapse rates.
Warm-sector buoyancy of 1000-2000 J/kg will become common by peak
heating. This sounding also sampled the southern periphery of strong
700-500 mb winds. As the OH/PA cluster evolves east and becomes
surface-based, convection will organize into a fast-moving QLCS with
embedded bowing structures given the strong mid-level westerlies
nearly orthogonal to the line. Widespread strong to scattered severe
wind gusts appear likely which may yield a derecho, and thus
damaging wind coverage probabilities have been increased this
outlook. A few cells should form ahead of the developing QLCS, most
likely across parts of southern NY/Hudson Valley vicinity into
western New England. Supercell wind profiles will support a tornado
and large hail risk maximized across this region, with this activity
becoming absorbed within the broader QLCS. The severe threat will
quickly wane near the Atlantic Coast once the QLCS impinges on the
stable marine layer.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328179 · Replies: · Views: 20,648

RobB
Posted on: May 2 2018, 11:53 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE(telejunkie @ May 2 2018, 11:23 AM) *
April 2018 was a full 10F colder than April 2017 imby, averaging 39.3F (vs 49.5 F in 2017) according to my neighbors PWS:



Crazy stuff. IMBY, it was 11.8 degrees!

47.4 degree mean this past April compared to 59.6 in 2017.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327308 · Replies: · Views: 73,136

RobB
Posted on: May 1 2018, 07:04 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


My back yard Vantage Pro stats. Quite the cool April. Last April, I had one morning with a temp of 32 or below. This past April, I counted around 13.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327197 · Replies: · Views: 73,136

RobB
Posted on: Apr 15 2018, 11:13 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 15 2018, 11:58 AM) *
Look at the epic bust... severe reports all around the moderate risk, only a few in it.



Funny how that works. Just extend the moderate area out 40 miles in diameter then boom, it looks good. Is a bust, I guess, but not too far off from being right. Funny how bullseyes in weather potential so often don't turn out..At least we remember those more. Psychological fun and games smile.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326385 · Replies: · Views: 13,945

RobB
Posted on: Apr 14 2018, 09:09 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


April so far IMBY. Was quite nice to see upper 70s the past two days. Cleaned my grill out yesterday evening in preparation for back deck grilling and IPA consumption smile.gif

CODE
MONTHLY CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY for APR. 2018

NAME: South Dayton Bruiser Home   CITY: South Dayton   STATE: Ohio
ELEV:   728 ft  LAT:  39 41' 30" N  LONG:  84 12' 20" W

                   TEMPERATURE (F), RAIN  (in), WIND SPEED (mph)

                                      HEAT  COOL        AVG
    MEAN                              DEG   DEG         WIND                 DOM
DAY TEMP  HIGH   TIME   LOW    TIME   DAYS  DAYS  RAIN  SPEED HIGH   TIME    DIR
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1  41.3  48.7  12:47a  33.0  12:00m  23.1   0.0  0.00   3.2  24.0   2:44a     N
2  37.2  45.9   4:38p  28.8   7:32a  27.2   0.0  0.17   1.8  13.0   3:12p    SE
3  54.5  65.0   3:31p  42.0   1:41a  10.2   0.0  2.18   2.5  28.0   4:34p    SW
4  37.3  60.3  12:01a  32.9  10:34p  27.3   0.0  0.03   7.1  29.0   1:41a   WNW
5  38.3  47.1   6:07p  27.4   7:42a  25.1   0.0  0.00   1.4  14.0  12:28p   WNW
6  45.0  56.7   2:32p  30.4  11:27p  19.5   0.0  0.06   4.1  22.0   5:29p   WNW
7  33.1  41.1   5:46p  27.7  12:29a  31.6   0.0  0.05   3.0  16.0  12:04a     N
8  34.2  42.4   3:41p  24.2   7:07a  30.6   0.0  0.00   1.7  11.0   9:14a     N
9  35.4  38.6   2:50p  31.3   6:46a  28.8   0.0  0.03   0.7  11.0   3:18p    NW
10  36.9  44.0   2:36p  26.1   5:48a  27.7   0.0  0.00   0.8  11.0  11:06a   WNW
11  45.4  62.2   4:36p  26.5   5:33a  19.3   0.0  0.00   2.4  20.0   2:26p    SW
12  65.9  78.3   5:04p  54.5   5:57a   3.5   4.4  0.00   4.9  28.0  11:31a    SW
13  71.9  79.7   4:39p  64.5   7:36a   0.0   6.8  0.00   4.3  28.0   1:43p    SW
14  68.0  72.1  12:01a  65.0   9:08a   0.0   1.2  0.00   1.8  13.0   4:57a    SW
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    46.0  79.7    13    24.2     8   273.9  12.4  2.52   2.8  29.0     4       N

Max >=  90.0:  0
Max <=  32.0:  0
Min <=  32.0:  8
Min <=   0.0:  0
Max Rain: 2.18 ON 04/03/18
Days of Rain: 6 (>.01 in) 2 (>.1 in) 1 (>1 in)
Heat Base:  65.0  Cool Base:  65.0  Method: Integration
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326124 · Replies: · Views: 73,136

RobB
Posted on: Apr 14 2018, 08:55 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE(dissident @ Apr 14 2018, 12:14 AM) *
so far this snow is a bleeping non event like usual. There's a reason so many people ignore these forecasts.. because they always overestimate the bleeping snowfall amounts. Now here I am stuck at home taking off work when I could have worked at least half the night if not the full night for this non event that all the bleeping weather models predicted 12-18 inches, closed all the interstates and issued no travel advised, and so far it's one big bleeping dry slot/non event. Next time they predict a big storm I'm going to ignore them.

This is why people ignore forecasts because they ALWAYS overestimate.. like 80% of the snowfalls in my life and predicting a 70% chance of rain which ends up being maybe a 30% chance to cover their butts, meanwhile everyone just laughs at the forecasts because they are so pathetic.

Don't scare people into thinking we will get a foot of snow when we end up getting 4 inches. People get sick of that *bleep* and then just ignore the forecasts, which is what I'm finally going to start doing.

Yeah I got myself a little drunk to take advantage of the vacation I burned and because I suspected something like this would probably happen because like I mentioned it happens so much. Scare everyone into a non event and then wonder why people complain about forecasting accuracy.



I must admit that I enjoyed this meltdown. Don't hold back smile.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326121 · Replies: · Views: 9,465

RobB
Posted on: Apr 11 2018, 08:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 11 2018, 08:13 PM) *
Probably Henry Margusity laugh.gif


Actually, he is no longer with AccuWeather. I did (do) think he is better with severe weather than winter storms. He's decent w when it comes to that aspect of weather.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325737 · Replies: · Views: 13,945

RobB
Posted on: Apr 10 2018, 07:26 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


4/10 Euro EPS 5 day 2 meter temp anomalies:

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2325605 · Replies: · Views: 73,136

RobB
Posted on: Apr 10 2018, 07:24 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


4/10 0Z GEFS 5 day 2 meter temp anomalies:

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2325603 · Replies: · Views: 73,136

RobB
Posted on: Apr 10 2018, 07:24 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


4/10 0Z NAEFS:
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2325602 · Replies: · Views: 73,136

RobB
Posted on: Apr 9 2018, 05:18 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


4/9 CPC day 8 to 14 probabilities
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2325535 · Replies: · Views: 73,136

RobB
Posted on: Apr 9 2018, 03:24 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


4/9 12Z NAEFS:
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2325512 · Replies: · Views: 73,136

RobB
Posted on: Apr 9 2018, 12:45 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


4/9 12Z GEFS 5 day 2 meter temp anomalies:

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2325488 · Replies: · Views: 73,136

RobB
Posted on: Apr 8 2018, 03:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 8 2018, 03:55 PM) *
Well the GFS took off the idea of that sharp cutoff to COD as PSU was alluding to it did take a step to the EURO idea but also the Euro took a step to the GFS kind of playing a middle ground theme. Both essentially have it in 8 and move it into 1 and weakening quite a bit before just glancing 2 and moving into COD but then they both are starting to pick up on the idea of making a entrance for a week or so into COD but then want to bring it back out into 7 again. That would probably help explain why the GFS almost reverts back to a very similar pattern many are experiencing now. It wants to get a push in the atmosphere to get it moving again but as soon as it does it goes right back. So mean troughing locations showing up in NW PAC and NE Asia region England and central Europe as well as SE Canada Eastern US. Im sure this pattern should break but with us closing in on a week before we head into COD region bets seem to be dwindling on east ridge west trough idea besides the 2-3 day time period where we see some warmth before it gets cut again.

Couple severe weather threats showing up as well during the next 2 weeks, at least the more noticeable ones Im kind of surprised we have managed to have this pattern lock in as much as it has. The stagnation is pretty remarkable to see. I still think we manage to just around average for the month overall around midatlantic into NE and GL region well that may be a different story. Will all this hold well who is to say for sure but what we do know is we will be having some type of warming taking place around mid month as we have a slight move in the pattern and then maybe revert back to the below normals towards the end of the month beginning of may. Fits what RRWT was pointing out in LR gotta remember though we have a moving average now at this point not as intense in temp average gains as say through march with the increase but low to mid 60s as average down here at the end of the month and pushing mid to upper 60s going into may Ill take slightly below average!


As always, I enjoy and appreciate your posts!

Thanks...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2325411 · Replies: · Views: 73,136

RobB
Posted on: Apr 8 2018, 02:26 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


A few local snow reports....
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325406 · Replies: · Views: 5,122

RobB
Posted on: Apr 8 2018, 02:23 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


I figured, I would post in here despite being in the OV.

41.1 degrees but the dew point is only 10! Crazy..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325405 · Replies: · Views: 4,046

RobB
Posted on: Apr 8 2018, 01:12 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


4/8 12Z NAEFS
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2325399 · Replies: · Views: 73,136

RobB
Posted on: Apr 8 2018, 12:51 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


4/8 12Z GEFS 5 day 2 meter temp anomalies:

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2325398 · Replies: · Views: 73,136

RobB
Posted on: Apr 8 2018, 08:21 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


The 0Z GEFS is more bullish on the extent and depth of cold compared to EPS

4/8 0Z Euro EPS 5 day 2 meter temp anomalies:

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2325383 · Replies: · Views: 73,136

RobB
Posted on: Apr 8 2018, 08:18 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


4/8 0Z GEFS 5 day 2 meter temp anomalies

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2325382 · Replies: · Views: 73,136

RobB
Posted on: Apr 8 2018, 08:17 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


4/8 0Z NAEFS:
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2325381 · Replies: · Views: 73,136

RobB
Posted on: Apr 7 2018, 02:16 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,026
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16


QUOTE(Solution Man @ Apr 7 2018, 03:07 PM) *
Hey brother, you have mci
Thanks


Here you go!
CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MCI    LAT=  39.28 LON=  -94.75 ELE=  1027

                                            12Z APR07
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
SAT 12Z 07-APR  -6.5    -8.3    1028      52      19    0.00     553     531    
SAT 18Z 07-APR   2.5    -8.0    1027      32      30    0.00     554     533    
SUN 00Z 08-APR   3.4    -6.6    1022      57      54    0.00     555     538    
SUN 06Z 08-APR  -1.7    -4.4    1021      64      34    0.00     559     542    
SUN 12Z 08-APR  -0.8    -4.0    1018      61      68    0.00     558     544    
SUN 18Z 08-APR   2.9    -4.4    1015      61      96    0.02     557     545    
MON 00Z 09-APR   3.4    -3.1    1013      75      49    0.03     553     543    
MON 06Z 09-APR   0.2     1.5    1013      90      18    0.00     555     544    
MON 12Z 09-APR  -0.9     4.9    1017      83      35    0.00     556     542    
MON 18Z 09-APR   8.0     2.3    1021      61      46    0.00     558     541
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2325344 · Replies: · Views: 5,122

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