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> Long Range Spring 2017 Outlooks and Discussion, Share thoughts, forecasts, trends, excitement, anxiety here.
NorEaster07
post May 26 2017, 12:23 PM
Post #861




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Upper Low and Surface Storm now off the coast of Maine.

Last 4 hours. 9am-1pm loop.





The previous Storm was prettier. It was stronger too


Are we really talking about storms like this in May? lol


Today. 998mb of coast of Maine.





May 15th. 988mb off coast of Maine.


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NorEaster07
post May 26 2017, 02:26 PM
Post #862




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GOES16 Loop since this morning.

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ClicheVortex2014
post May 26 2017, 04:05 PM
Post #863




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Wow, I'm starting to feel bad for the northeasterners. We're all used to clouds this time of year, but this seems excessive. Crazy there's that much of a difference between Ohio and New York, for example.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 9 (Last: 5/24/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 26 2017, 07:45 PM
Post #864




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First heat-related advisory of the year ohmy.gif
QUOTE
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
335 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.Hot and humid conditions will result in dangerous heat across
portions of North Texas on Saturday Afternoon...

TXZ091-092-101>103-116>119-131>133-270500-
/O.NEW.KFWD.HT.Y.0001.170527T1900Z-170528T0000Z/
Montague-Cooke-Jack-Wise-Denton-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Hood-Somervell-Johnson-
Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Jacksboro,
Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville,
Flower Mound, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth,
Arlington, Dallas, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose,
Cleburne, and Burleson
335 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect from 2 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday.

* TEMPERATURES...Max temperatures will climb into the mid 90s
with heat index values in the 103 to 107 degree range.

* IMPACTS...Heat exhaustion and heat stroke will be possible for
individuals that work or play outside without adequate shade or
water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be sure to check on persons with health problems and the
elderly...as they are the most susceptible to heat exhaustion and
heat stroke. Never leave young children or pets in an enclosed
vehicle...even for a short time...as temperatures can quickly rise
to life threatening levels.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 9 (Last: 5/24/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 26 2017, 10:37 PM
Post #865




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 26 2017, 05:05 PM) *
Wow, I'm starting to feel bad for the northeasterners. We're all used to clouds this time of year, but this seems excessive. Crazy there's that much of a difference between Ohio and New York, for example.


Those darn Appalachians


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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snowsux
post May 26 2017, 11:41 PM
Post #866




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What a *bleep* show so far this spring. Maybe June can be a total washout as well.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Yesterday, 12:17 AM
Post #867




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QUOTE(snowsux @ May 27 2017, 12:41 AM) *
What a *bleep* show so far this spring. Maybe June can be a total washout as well.


Has made for some great hiking weather instead of dieing in the heat and humidity. Bugs have been going bonkers though.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 07:03 AM
Post #868




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Now have much stronger agreement regarding the MJO. Expected to pass through phase 2 in 3-4 days.




Last time we passed through phase 2 was May 14. 1 day later began a 5-day severe weather and tornado outbreak, including a high risk in the Plains.

Per BSR, we called today's to-be outbreak in the Midwest. Per BSR, we should be expecting another one in 3-4 days (+/- 2 days). This aligns well with the phase 2 passage. Only thing is... we don't pass through the entire phase 2; we come out of the CoD into phase 2. So I'm uncertain if that matters.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 13 2017, 08:29 PM) *
I have a feeling we may hear the phrase "the pattern will reload"/"pattern has reloaded"... in other words, similar pattern twice in relatively rapid succession... toward the end of the month or into very early June. Look at the placement of the features... especially the surface low pressures/warm fronts/cold fronts.

Pattern valid on 11/00z

Pattern valid on 15/00z

I've posted about this before... but again... add 17 days to those days, you get May 27 and May 31... give or take 2 days.

The evolution of these systems in the Bering, via my eyeball interpretation, suggests to me that the Plains won't be the primary severe weather area. I think it'll favor severe weather in the regions immediately east of the Plains; Dixie Alley, Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley. I mentioned those areas as primary because of Climatology, but it might also include the Great Lakes, the northeast, and southeast.

Of course, just as Climatology favors severe weather in the OV/Mississippi Valley, it favors severe weather even more in the Plains. So I feel like I'm kinda going out on a limb with my interpretation by saying the Plains will not be the area of interest with these events. Pretty risky when it's dryline season out there.

Oklahoma hasn't had a high risk since 2012 or 2013, so after all I've said here, I wouldn't be surprised if they finally get one here. rolleyes.gif


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Yesterday, 07:06 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 9 (Last: 5/24/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 01:03 PM
Post #869




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From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 26 2017, 05:05 PM) *
Wow, I'm starting to feel bad for the northeasterners. We're all used to clouds this time of year, but this seems excessive. Crazy there's that much of a difference between Ohio and New York, for example.


Thanks for the sympathy. lol This morning was truly amazing! Felt great...

But it cloudied over at 12pm.

So 4 hrs of sunlight today.


I been keeping track since the full sunny day on the 21st.


6 hours of sun shining in last 137 hours. (5.7 days) blink.gif

#NoVeggieGrowth





After 12pm, It tried...it failed. Goodbye until........ ?





Those areas of light showers are moving SE so no threat to me unless something develops more in Hudson Valley


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OSNW3
post Yesterday, 02:22 PM
Post #870




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 27 2017, 07:03 AM) *
Now have much stronger agreement regarding the MJO. Expected to pass through phase 2 in 3-4 days.


Last time we passed through phase 2 was May 14. 1 day later began a 5-day severe weather and tornado outbreak, including a high risk in the Plains.

Per BSR, we called today's to-be outbreak in the Midwest. Per BSR, we should be expecting another one in 3-4 days (+/- 2 days). This aligns well with the phase 2 passage. Only thing is... we don't pass through the entire phase 2; we come out of the CoD into phase 2. So I'm uncertain if that matters.


With regard to recurring atmospheric modes, the ~31st has more grit than the ~27th. Signals are out of phase for the ~27th and weaker than the ~31st which shows some deep purples and phasing among RRWT members. We shall see.

RRWT Lifted Index anomaly for 5/25-29 from 5/4
Attached File  170504150120.jpg ( 303.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


RRWT Lifted Index anomaly for 5/30-6/3 from 5/9
Attached File  170509150120__1_.jpg ( 298.01K ) Number of downloads: 0


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bingobobbo
post Yesterday, 03:52 PM
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I can never recall all three months of spring having over five inches of precipitation, but this year is likely to be the first. Aside from 2011, this is looking to be our wettest spring on record. It is our coolest May in nine years, but a few more tenths of a degree and it could be our coldest May since 2002.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Yesterday, 10:05 PM
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Will the rain ever stop? We did get above 60F today which was exciting, but man this has been brutally foggy, rainy weather.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer
A gust of the past through the door and I'm back in my place.

Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'
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Undertakerson
post Today, 04:21 AM
Post #873




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Geez - it's becoming like a broken record sad.gif Pretty soon, we might have to write off June (for any hopes of warm and sunny streaks). I would see this as a "not cold" but "not pleasant either" signal

Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 246.73K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Today, 04:23 AM
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NorEaster07
post Today, 04:57 AM
Post #874




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Waking up to dreary clouds again. Not even the bright kind. 6 hours of sunlight in last 156 hours (6.5 days). Started Mid April being like this.

QUOTE(bingobobbo @ May 27 2017, 04:52 PM) *
I can never recall all three months of spring having over five inches of precipitation, but this year is likely to be the first. Aside from 2011, this is looking to be our wettest spring on record. It is our coolest May in nine years, but a few more tenths of a degree and it could be our coldest May since 2002.


Interesting stat! I'm curious to see other areas.

QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ May 27 2017, 11:05 PM) *
Will the rain ever stop? We did get above 60F today which was exciting, but man this has been brutally foggy, rainy weather.



Past 60 days everyone in the region at or above normal with precip. Double the amount for NC/VA there.


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NorEaster07
post Today, 06:59 AM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ May 27 2017, 04:52 PM) *
I can never recall all three months of spring having over five inches of precipitation, but this year is likely to be the first.


Checked some sites around here, no 3 in a row but I do see Providence with a back to back 6"+ total. Last time that happened was August-September 2011. #Irene. This year without a tropical system it happened.


IMBY since Jan 2016.

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