Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Post Season Analysis & 2018 Atlantic Season Predictions, 2017 Post Season Analysis, 2018 Season Predictions, ENSO Forecasts etc
Ron in Miami
post Jan 10 2018, 07:39 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,096
Joined: 31-August 10
From: Miami FL
Member No.: 23,522





I spoke with Vort after the 2017 season ended and we discussed starting a thread for the upcoming 2018 Hurricane season. I've been super busy since Irma (still dealing with the insurance company for the damage to my house, have yet to be paid!). So this is the first chance I've had to look into the upcoming season.

With 2017 being one of the most active and destructive seasons on record, current full blown La Nina conditions, 2018 is looking to be another active year. And as you can see in the graph below, active seasons usually come in bunches of 3 or more consecutive years (going back to 95 in the active era).

So what was so special about 2017 to see conditions so ripe for such strong storm formation? We had Harvey, a raggedy looking Tropical Storm go through rapid intensification to a Cat 4 over night surprising most people in Texas. Then having the system stall out and dump historical amounts of rain for days on end. Then the month of August started of what would be a train of 10 consecutive hurricanes through the middle of October!

Early forecasts from CSU predict 2018 will most likely be another active year for Atlantic hurricanes:

1. AMO becomes very strong in 2018 and no El Niño occurs (resulting in a seasonal
average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) activity of ~ 170) – 25% chance.
2. AMO is above average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 130) – 35% chance.
3. AMO is above average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 80) – 20% chance.
4. AMO is below average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 80) – 15% chance.
5. AMO is below average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 50) – 5% chance.

Personally I think 2018 will be another super active year, and to be honest I think the US got off lucky this year. Texas was devastated by Harvey which caught them by surprise, but the US got lucky Irma went on a vacation to Cuba before coming up through FL. 40-50 more miles north and we are talking about a high end Cat 5 running up the whole state of FL. And that's a nightmare scenario for everyone involved O_o

Then we caught another break with Maria, yes it clobbered PR which is still recovering but can you imagine Maria pulling a Hugo instead of recurving? It would have been a disaster in the making if it had.

I'll update this post later in the coming months as the newest predictions come out. So feel free to use this thread to post your thoughts on the 2017 Hurricane season and for your 2018 Season forecast predictions. I know most of you guys are busy with the winter storms but we can still show the tropics some love! laugh.gif




Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ron in Miami
post Jan 15 2018, 07:16 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,096
Joined: 31-August 10
From: Miami FL
Member No.: 23,522





Thought maybe this might get the thread buzzing, was looking at the current SST's for the Atlantic and comparing them to some notable previous years. 2005, 2011, 2017 and this year. 2005 was a Weak La Nina year and 2011 was a moderate one. This year we are in the middle of a La Nina right now. 2011 had a much cooler pacific similar to this years SST's.

While at this time last year the area west of Africa was a bit warmer, the overall Atlantic as a whole is warmer then compared to last year and previous years. Even with a weakening La Nina or ENSO neutral conditions this summer, the Atlantic should see favorable conditions again during hurricane season.

EDIT: Was just looking at the comparison between 2011 and 2018 and noticed the same "cool pool" between SA and Africa at -20 degrees. Found that interesting O_o;;;

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Jan 15 2018, 07:22 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image

Attached Image
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stxprowl
post Feb 4 2018, 01:55 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,445
Joined: 13-December 09
From: Cherry Hill, NJ 5 Miles East of Philly!
Member No.: 20,184





http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Cascade/i...aa296f58636b29f

Attached Image


Attached Image


Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PlanetMaster
post Mar 5 2018, 06:05 AM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,555
Joined: 11-January 11
From: Babylon, NY
Member No.: 25,093





QUOTE(stxprowl @ Feb 4 2018, 01:55 PM) *
http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Cascade/i...aa296f58636b29f

Attached Image


Attached Image

Thanks for the link, very thorough presentation. The numbers just incredible and the loops and graphics amazing. What a storm for the ages.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Solstice
post Mar 12 2018, 03:13 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 937
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112017_Irma.pdf


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ron in Miami
post Apr 5 2018, 11:57 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,096
Joined: 31-August 10
From: Miami FL
Member No.: 23,522





CSU released its first forecast for the 2018 season, and they think it will be an active one.

CSU 2018 forecast story
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 22nd May 2018 - 03:01 AM