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travis3000
Rank: F5 Superstorm
28 years old
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Alliston,Ontario
Born July-1-1989
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travis3000

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24 Dec 2017
Here's my initial map for the lake effect outbreak beginning Christmas Day across the snowbelts. Bands will form tomorrow and continue right through Wednesday night. Some of these bands will be intense delivering 4-8cm per hour. Unlike past events, we should have periods where the bands stall out for 3-6 hours at a time. This will allow for some large accumulations especially in a couple key zones.

While I do expect a band to develop off northern lake Huron, the primary band will be one that oscillates north and south across Tobermory down to Sauble Beach/Kincardine and across northern Dufferin County towards Barrie, Orillia, Midland. This also includes all of the southern Georgian Bay shore from Owen Sound down to the Blue Mountains and Collingwood. If you live in this zone be on high alert from the 25th-27th for heavy snows and zero visibility. Amounts of 40 to 70cm are not out of the question wherever this primary band sets up. Lesser amounts further south, but still disruptive and accumulating snows off the shores of Huron from Goderich up to Kincardine and west through Durham, Hanover, Listowel, Mount Forest, Shelburne, Orangeville.

My City By City Estimates: (from noon Monday to noon Thursday)

Parry Sound: 3-8cm
Bracebridge: 5-10cm
Gravenhurst: 8-15cm
Port Severn: 15-25cm
Midland: 30-45cm
Orillia: 30-50cm
Barrie: 35-55cm
Alliston: 15-25cm
Wasaga: 35-50cm
Collingwood/Blue Mountains: 45-70cm
Owen Sound: 40-50cm
Chatsworth: 45-60cm
Tobermory: 50-70cm
Sauble: 30-45cm
Kincardine: 25-40cm
Goderich: 5-15cm
Listowel: 10-25cm
Mount Forest: 25-35cm
Shelburne: 25-35cm
Orangeville: 10-25cm
Newmarket: 5-15cm
Northern GTA: 3-10cm






Here is my map.

Attached File  Squalls_Dec_25_27th.jpg ( 202.04K ) Number of downloads: 17
7 Dec 2017
This thread is for the clipper that runs are showing. I think it has potential to stall out and tap into some east coast energy. Could be the first widespread snowfall for Southern ON.

Too early for amounts but 5-15cm is likely based on some of the runs I've seen.

18z GFS Today:

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2017_12_07_at_5.49.55_PM.jpg ( 467.57K ) Number of downloads: 15
12 Nov 2017
The second lake effect snow outbreak it poised to hit this coming weekend, only this time expect bigger squalls, a longer event, with higher accumulations. I will continue to monitor this event as we head through the week including any changes I see.

Right now I'm expecting this to be a NW to SE orientation, at times being a WNW to ESE orientation. Many areas will see snow, some will see very impressive amounts. While it's too soon to start issuing a city by city snowfall amount I'm going to go out on a lim and put out my initial map where I think the heaviest snows will fall.

Remember, the dates may change. There's a chance we won't see any major activity until into Sunday (19th) as seen on the CMC. The GFS is aggressive and shows a long duration major event. By Wednesday we will have a much better idea.

Attached File  Nov_18_20th_2017_Squalls.jpg ( 203.17K ) Number of downloads: 15


Areas in the high risk zone have a good chance at over 30CM IMO at this point. More to come this week....
30 Jan 2017
Im liking the Thursday Feb 2nd to Saturday Feb 4th timeframe for some pretty intense squalls. There looks to be ample cold air in place which will allow for some fairly intense bands to develop.

We've seen some bands of heavy flurries develop across most of SW, S, C Ontario Wednesday Feb 1st which has put down 2-10cm in many locations. These bands of flurries will consolidate into more classic snowsqualls as we head towards Thursday and into Friday.

Right now its looking like a WNW to ESE event, at times veering into a more NW flow.

Areas to be on alert for 30cm+

-Midland
-Orillia
-Bracebridge
-Gravenhurst
-Muskoka
-North Simcoe County
-Owen Sound
-Meaford
-Kincardine
-Sauble Beach
-Bruce Peninsula
-Grey County
-Flesherton


Attached File  Squalls_Feb_2nd_4th.jpg ( 234.6K ) Number of downloads: 8
16 Jan 2017
I'm creating a thread on this storm, as all the models are showing something for next week. Looks to move into SW Ontario on the 23rd and make its way east, the effects continuing to be felt into the 25th and 26th out east.

Models have been dancing around with tracks, and precipitation types.

Here's the 12z CMC model:

Jan 23rd morning
Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.png ( 158.64K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.png ( 172.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.png ( 180.73K ) Number of downloads: 0


Heavy snow in Eastern Ontario by this point moving into Southern QB.
Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_35.png ( 181.08K ) Number of downloads: 0



Here's the 18z GFS run from tonight


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28.png ( 162.56K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.png ( 181.72K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_32.png ( 175.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_34.png ( 170.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


As you can see this run of the GFS isn't as bullish for big snowfall out east, but potential remains.

Mostly rain for Southern Ontario at this point but potential is there for some mixtures especially over higher terrain.
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Comments
futureweatherman...
Happy Birthday Travis... you need to start updating your blog though
29 Jul 2010 - 23:02

hey there..
want to know more about you... hope you wont mind..
I found you interesting..
10 Dec 2009 - 18:33
players1
hey travis i posted some pics in the febuary pattern disco for you. have a good day.
28 Jan 2009 - 12:16

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