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> Dec 7-10 Plains/MW/GL/OV Blizzard, Closed: Please move to the OBS thread
StormChaser4Life
post Dec 4 2009, 04:01 PM
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QUOTE(chschargers09 @ Dec 4 2009, 02:58 PM) *
i agree, but even the gfs and ecmwf have shifted southeast. this thing tracks thorugh a corridor between detroit and erie, pa. jmho


yea and? the runs will vary time to time. computer models aren't perfect. i am not pulling my forecast from thin air. i look at the whole picture and trace it back several days ago when the models first picked up this storm.
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Ilovelakeeffect
post Dec 4 2009, 04:02 PM
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Is it safe to say there willbe some decent snows over a large area on the backside of this system unlike the one we saw this past week?
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StormChaser4Life
post Dec 4 2009, 04:03 PM
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QUOTE(INweather @ Dec 4 2009, 03:00 PM) *
Ok everyone, cool down. Models have had this thing west the past couple of days, but as we all know, things change, and that change may be in process as we speak. Would not be at all suprised to see the storm further east and south. I think we all like to put our own track on it so we can "wish" that it hits here. Plain and simple, someone is going to get a snowstorm and major icestorm, and someone is going to get rain/thunderstorms, potentially severe weather.


thank you! i totally agree smile.gif i am not saying i wont change my current thinking. just atm i am going with a more western track.
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WIU Meteorologis...
post Dec 4 2009, 04:04 PM
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QUOTE(StormChaser4Life @ Dec 4 2009, 02:53 PM) *
not saying you wont get snow. i am just talking about the worst effects of this storm being in this region.


I wonder what Dr. Williams will have to say about this come monday when all the models are in a lot closer...I bet he is going to be ticked that he decided to make us do our final forecasts on last weeks storm.

Back to topic I have to agree with StormChaser4Life on the fact that the GFS has been consistently showing this storm going up through the midwest I think the larger concern is where in the midwest it will track and how strong it will be. I still have concerns about myself getting a large amount of snow but someone somewhere is going to get hammered with a decent snowfall and solid winds. As the arctic air looks very well entrenched and as mentioned before the cold front passing through sunday will add even more too it. As for those in Ohio i think there is a chance you will recieve snow but the Arctic air doesnt seem to want to push that far east at the moment
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chschargers09
post Dec 4 2009, 04:04 PM
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QUOTE(StormChaser4Life @ Dec 4 2009, 04:01 PM) *
yea and? the runs will vary time to time. computer models aren't perfect. i am not pulling my forecast from thin air. i look at the whole picture and trace it back several days ago when the models first picked up this storm.

we'll see when the 18z and 0z runs come out. but i didnt "pull my forecast from thin air" if thats what ur implying, i am basing it on the latest models when i do that.
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Gilbertfly
post Dec 4 2009, 04:04 PM
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I know one thing we can ALL agree on....it's gonna be mighty chilly this time next week! blink.gif
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Weatherguy405
post Dec 4 2009, 04:05 PM
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QUOTE(StormChaser4Life @ Dec 4 2009, 05:00 PM) *
i never said that. you are putting words in my mouth. i simply am saying a strong storm will pass through this region. i am basing my forecast on meteorology to because i am a meteorology major. i dont believe the low will be that strong nor will it move due north. i think it is going to track similair to what tom skilling was saying. a parabolic curve like path. i think it will do a rapid turn to the NE at some point. when it does that i dont know yet. the jet stream winds are oriented to carry this storm West to East and then turn in NE at some point in the midwest.


I just pointed out why I don't think it will move north so early, I am expecting a very similar storm to earlier this week only further east or perhaps up the west of the Appalachians... and I already have a degree in Meteorology...


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OhioBlizzard
post Dec 4 2009, 04:06 PM
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i don't base anything i say on where i "wish" it to go. sure i want cleveland to get a snowstorm. but I don't see that happening. low will track to far west for that. if i believed cleveland was going to get nailed id say the low would track by pittsburgh


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Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

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CentralIllinois
post Dec 4 2009, 04:06 PM
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QUOTE(Ilovelakeeffect @ Dec 4 2009, 03:02 PM) *
Is it safe to say there willbe some decent snows over a large area on the backside of this system unlike the one we saw this past week?

Yes most Likely
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OhioBlizzard
post Dec 4 2009, 04:07 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 4 2009, 04:04 PM) *
I know one thing we can ALL agree on....it's gonna be mighty chilly this time next week! blink.gif

thats for sure


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Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

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2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

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Removed_Member_nicnic_*
post Dec 4 2009, 04:07 PM
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QUOTE(Ilovelakeeffect @ Dec 4 2009, 04:02 PM) *
Is it safe to say there willbe some decent snows over a large area on the backside of this system unlike the one we saw this past week?


Joe bastardi is saying snow-squalls to east coast from backlash.
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Gilbertfly
post Dec 4 2009, 04:08 PM
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Weather does whatever it wants to no matter what the models say...use them to pin point a decent forcast and see what mother nature does in comparison.
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tick629
post Dec 4 2009, 04:08 PM
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Alright guys, lets get back on topic. If not I'm going to have to give out warnings.


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INweather
post Dec 4 2009, 04:10 PM
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QUOTE(OhioBlizzard @ Dec 4 2009, 04:06 PM) *
i don't base anything i say on where i "wish" it to go. sure i want cleveland to get a snowstorm. but I don't see that happening. low will track to far west for that. if i believed cleveland was going to get nailed id say the low would track by pittsburgh


All I have to say OhioBlizzard is don't give up yet, I am seeing a east push, so let's take a look at the 18Z and 0Z models tonight, and tomorrow and Sunday will be a day in which things will look a little more clear. One thing we all agree on, I think, is this is going to be a pretty strong storm system that will have widespread effects over an entire region. Severe is possible along with snow and ice on the NW side of the low track. Even if you see very little snow and ice, remember that there are still weather dangers possible with strong winds and potentially severe weather and flooding.


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chschargers09
post Dec 4 2009, 04:10 PM
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QUOTE(tick629 @ Dec 4 2009, 04:08 PM) *
Alright guys, lets get back on topic. If not I'm going to have to give out warnings.

me?
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kab2791
post Dec 4 2009, 04:11 PM
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DTX AFD
QUOTE
MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-051000-
LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
358 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES ON MONDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THIS TIME
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
WHICH WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION TYPES AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/outlook.php


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post Dec 4 2009, 04:11 PM
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There is no doubt in my mind that this storm will NOT pan out like its showing at this current time! To many hours and model runs for anyone to get over excited about a storm. The track of this storm will probly shift somewhere by 50-200 miles in any direction. Its gona happen...period...no ifs and or buts. The law of averages and past model runs of other storms all do that..Take a look back on this weeks earlier storm..She shifted all over the place up to 2 days before she hit the Mid West. Not to mention she was on the warm side. Dont take the track or precip amounts to mind...its too early. Any met will tell you or forecast shouldnt stop 100 hours before she hits...Thats when you get burned.

This post has been edited by Detroit: Dec 4 2009, 04:13 PM
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StormChaser4Life
post Dec 4 2009, 04:12 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherguy405 @ Dec 4 2009, 03:05 PM) *
I just pointed out why I don't think it will move north so early, I am expecting a very similar storm to earlier this week only further east or perhaps up the west of the Appalachians... and I already have a degree in Meteorology...


i respect your opinion but i am sticking with my gut. i just dont agree with that solution at this time. where are you a meteorologist at?
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jim6446
post Dec 4 2009, 04:12 PM
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when is the next model run?
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tick629
post Dec 4 2009, 04:13 PM
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QUOTE(chschargers09 @ Dec 4 2009, 04:10 PM) *
me?


Everyone in the thread. Its alright to get into a disagreement but now its time to move things back on track.


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