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> Long Range Summer 2017 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and more
ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 09:35 PM
Post #21




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There's currently a big divergence regarding what happens after the system on the 27th. GFS wants to bring warmth back soon after, Euro doesn't. This can be explained by the disagreement with the MJO. GFS takes the MJO more into phase 2 and dies out, while Euro keeps it closer to phase 3 and the wave continues.



Beyond what immediately happens after the 27th, Euro has potential to make it into phase 4 and possibly beyond. This would mean warm weather in the first half of June.



So if the GFS is right, warmth will return after the 27th but the MJO dies out, which makes the first half of June more uncertain.

If Euro is right, the weather pattern will be cool and severe weather relatively stagnant... however, if it stays consistent with the MJO wave continuing, then we can expect warmth in the first half of June.

Euro was the outlier with the most recent MJO wave and it turned out to be correct, so I'm favoring Euro regarding the MJO. However, BSR has another severe threat ~4 days after the one on the 27th-28th, so perhaps Euro is going to cave into the GFS a little bit and allow for more of a warmup ahead of the next system.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Yesterday, 09:41 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

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