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NorEaster07
Posted on: Today, 06:27 AM


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From: SW Coastal CT
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NYC Data from the GFS00z overnight..

Check out the Heights for next week. 580+! That's like a warm June pattern.

850mb temps in the 50s/60s (F°)

Rain chances Friday, Saturday night then with a ridge overhead have to wait another week for rain.

Funny I boxed out the 70s and 80s. I could of done 60s too being how cold its been. These are the max temps so NYC might very well hit mid 80s.

Check out what It has for 8am Saturday May 5th. 67°! Hot morning

Lastly... the best part.... Dew points in the 40s & 50s!

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2327024 · Replies: · Views: 41

NorEaster07
Posted on: Today, 06:25 AM


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June Like Warmth coming..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2327023 · Replies: · Views: 41

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 24 2018, 06:58 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Apr 24 2018, 03:21 PM) *
Animated GIF: The first twenty-four days of April 2018 via my webcam noon shot.



Always fun to see. I should put mine together. Looks like the 14th snow lasted the longest? Are u missing a few days?
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326980 · Replies: · Views: 56,944

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 24 2018, 06:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
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Paulie P says the the Official Summer forecast will come out next week from Accuweather..

Here's a snippet of his latest blog..

QUOTE
Saturday, April 21, 2018 6:10:16 AM

May through July outlook driven by dryness in the Southwest and still a slow retreat of the upper jet stream

Summer forecast - June through August will be out next week.

Northeast, mid-Atlantic, eastern Ohio Valley– Across New England, mid-Atlantic coast and upstate New York state, overall temperatures will average near to slightly above normal; it will be wetter and cooler across eastern Ohio Valley and the central Appalachians and most of the mid-Atlantic. Some severe weather, but a below-normal season expected; cooling energy near average (moderate confidence).

Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Gulf Coast– Central and southern peninsula of Florida still rather dry in May, but turns wetter late May into June, drought should end by midsummer, potential early tropical hits along the Gulf coast, large area of above-normal rainfall Gulf states into the Tennessee Valley and extending east to the Carolinas; temperatures will not be far from average, but high humidity will lead to slightly higher energy usage, and this region is still a flood and severe weather risk (moderate to high confidence).

Western Ohio Valley, Midwest, central/northern Plains- A slow transition into spring and now a slow transition into summer for this region. For most of this region, only short-term hot periods with exception toward the Foothills and western Plains, severe weather high impact central Plains, mid- to upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest, drier and hotter in the northern Plains in July (higher risk area as far as temperatures – moderate-to-high confidence precipitation).

Southern Plains– Dry conditions in the southwestern Plains and lower Texas Valley can lead to high heat in long stretches, eastern areas more of a risky forecast as far as temperatures, leaning near to slightly above, precipitation generally normal to slightly below, but the tropics can dictate temperature outcome - drier hotter, wetter, cooler (high confidence western areas, low confidence east).

Southwest–Dry and hot, significant long periods of high heat, fire danger high; rainfall increases in July, especially interior Southwest and central Rockies, watch for flash flooding mid- and late season in these areas (moderate-to-high confidence).

Northwest to Rockies–Transition from wet/snowy and cool late spring/early summer to hot and drier mid- to late summer drought can develop mid- to late summer east of Cascades and increased fire threat late summer into fall, above-normal temperatures can stretch across north-central Rockies into the northern Plains (moderate confidence, but transition depends on water temperature change off the Northwest coast this summer).
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326960 · Replies: · Views: 5,130

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 24 2018, 05:44 AM


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GFS continues to show widespread 70s next week in the East up to Canada. Looks like a Bermuda High might set up. Still 8-9 days away, we'll see. A New Warm Thread may be needed?

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Wednesday 80s for coastal states?

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Thursday 80s for coastal states?

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Wonder if this will mean flooding concerns. Look at all that snow still around in Eastern Canada.
National Snow Analyses - NOHRSC - The ultimate source for snow information

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326959 · Replies: · Views: 56,944

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 23 2018, 06:36 PM


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4th full sunny day in a row. Been since December. Feels so good.


Temps in the 60s for 3 days in a row. Been since October for that.


And Next week... Summer.




GFS for next Wednesday.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326945 · Replies: · Views: 56,944

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 22 2018, 02:01 PM


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From: SW Coastal CT
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Check this out.....I had to double check this because I could of sworn they got snow...and WOW! blink.gif


Oklahoma City only 0.4" of snow this season..

3rd least snowiest season. They haven't had that little since 1935.

Last 3 seasons WOW! ohmy.gif

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326896 · Replies: · Views: 56,944

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 22 2018, 02:00 PM


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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Apr 22 2018, 12:37 PM) *
My Spring has sprung

[attachment=355665:20180422_110234.jpg]


Whoa, cool! Coffee? Can you even grow that there? I actually never heard of that in the U.S.

Speaking of Spring and Garden.. Potatoes and Onions are in the ground. 1-2 weeks later than previous yrs.



  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326895 · Replies: · Views: 56,944

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 22 2018, 06:35 AM


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UPDATE::

Final update of the season? Most likely.. No snow being shown on the map except for higher elevations and for Montana and Wyoming next 14 days.

Here's a look at the Top 30 Snowiest Locations in the U.S from all NWS Climo Sites through April 21st..

Rhinelander, WI with a big move compared to last month. Mid March they only had 61.3". They got 38.6" more since then...now only 0.1" away from 100" season.

Montana having a banner yr. Great Falls is 5th snowiest on record with 104.9". Only 6 yrs since 1892 had 100"+

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And here is a look at the Top 50 locations with the largest season snowfall departures..

Surprised? blink.gif Islip, Long Island NY is +41.1" above normal which is 7th largest in entire U.S. 3rd snowiest season on record.


Bridgeport, CT #31 being 18.3" above normal.
Hartford at #43 being 15.6" above normal.
Norfolk Nebraska and NYC makes the list as well.

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326884 · Replies: · Views: 511,878

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 21 2018, 08:35 AM


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From: SW Coastal CT
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On a similar note...

Something interesting.. Danbury, CT 2018:

Max temps:
70s: 3 days
60s: 6 days
50s: 21 days

There hasn't been a day with just 60s since February 20th! I didn't count March 1st because it was literally for 30 minutes in between hours. Most of day was in the 50s.

Also... Having a max of 51°-59° with full sun only has happened once this month on April 1st.

Also... more days in the 50s in February than 1st 20 days of April

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326849 · Replies: · Views: 56,944

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 21 2018, 08:32 AM


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From: SW Coastal CT
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QUOTE(yamvmax @ Apr 21 2018, 05:50 AM) *
I'm wondering if I will ever see 70 the rest of spring here in the north east. What a miserable spring.


QUOTE(telejunkie @ Apr 21 2018, 07:02 AM) *
Serves you right for living so close to a big body of water tongue.gif tongue.gif


Lol. Yeah, 70s on the island isnt that common to get before May but definetly happens. Happened twice this month already. Happened 5 times last yr.

But I think yamvmax was wondering if that type of pattern will happen again this Spring.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326848 · Replies: · Views: 56,944

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 20 2018, 06:39 AM


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QUOTE(alczervik @ Apr 20 2018, 06:13 AM) *
Detroit News

I really struggle with the idea that what are currently experiencing won't have an effect on our summer weather. The link is to article stating we have been the coldest we have ever been for April in 143 years


Im not in front of PC but I have an image of a switch layered onto a temp map. We can easily switch to well above normal temps. It happens. Dont worry, winter is ending soon and Summer is coming.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326799 · Replies: · Views: 56,944

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 20 2018, 05:57 AM


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IMBY Update from this morning April 20th. Truely going backwards. Insane. blink.gif

Soil temp 4" down now 42.2°. Colder than the last 8 days, and colder than the last week of March. Unbelievable. blink.gif





  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326795 · Replies: · Views: 56,944

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 20 2018, 05:57 AM


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From: SW Coastal CT
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Whoa!! NYC has only hit 52° or warmer 13 times this spring. That's the least since 1940!




NYC Only 9 times above normal with the max temp this spring so far.




So far this Spring, Islip, Long Island, NY has hit 48° or warmer only 18 times. That's the least on record for the period of March 1 - April 19th.

We've had these abrupt drops with certain criterias now and then since 2015. Kinda fascinating .




Heating demand is the 7th highest for the period and the most since 2007. I think the lows have been a bit higher this spring (clouds) so the average temp didn't bump up the heating demand?

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326794 · Replies: · Views: 56,944

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 19 2018, 09:03 PM


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Over 20 MLB games cancelled this spring.

Heres Lacrosse in snow

https://twitter.com/JimTeskeNC9/status/987140994314526720

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326788 · Replies: · Views: 1,962

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 19 2018, 09:01 PM


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From this morning in PA

https://twitter.com/alexpmoser/status/986985838021169154

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326787 · Replies: · Views: 1,962

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 19 2018, 07:16 PM


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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Apr 19 2018, 06:53 PM) *
Definitely believe it...my pic was from top of bromley this evening, about 1100’ below top of manfield and south facing. Still full coverage top to bottom. Was mid-winter powder conditions....amazing the ice accretion from last weekend’s storm too.


Impressive stuff. look at this flow. Wow



  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326785 · Replies: · Views: 1,962

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 19 2018, 06:35 PM


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Vermont Mansfield.

https://twitter.com/SeanMParker/status/987007770779058177

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326782 · Replies: · Views: 1,962

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 19 2018, 06:33 PM


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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Apr 19 2018, 05:59 PM) *
Remind me again what the date is...?


Wow! Its November. Cant wait for spring already
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326781 · Replies: · Views: 1,962

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 19 2018, 05:09 PM


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QUOTE(stretchct @ Apr 19 2018, 05:00 PM) *
Snow mixed with rain as we passed west through Waterbury. 38 degrees. Had a break of sun around Hartford


Yup.. 5:15pm I couldn't believe my eyes for down here.. It was raining again as I was in Greenwich but then I noticed something different with the drops in Stamford... Frozen stuff!!
Air temp 40°F
5000'' temp 23°F




SLUSH! lol. I should of stopped and seen how long it lasted. I kept driving and.......




Then literally 5 minutes away in same town of Stamford still... Dry..and some sun

Instability from the cold air aloft and the hills creating some interesting weather




Now I'm home and guess what I got going.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326776 · Replies: · Views: 1,962

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 19 2018, 11:46 AM


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<sigh>


QUOTE
National Weather Service New York NY
1235 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

The main upper level jet will remain south of the region through
Friday.

For tonight:

Two more shortwaves pivot across the region in the mid levels. So
despite the surface low moving farther away to the south of Nova
Scotia, the region will remain in cyclonic flow aloft. The chances
for precipitation while much lower than earlier in the day,
will be still be present mainly during the evening. Cold air
advection on the backside could result in a light rain/snow mix
across some parts of the interior, especially higher terrain. No
snow accumulation is expected. Otherwise, the precipitation
will end as rain.

For overnight, more drying takes over with the persistent NW
flow.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW flow aloft Friday night. With no shortwave embedded in the flow
progged to impact the region, have continued with the dry forecast.
Lows Friday night should be around 5-10 degrees below normal.

A couple of northern stream 700-500 hPa shortwaves push through the
area Saturday and Saturday night as the rotate around the base of a
closed low over the Canadian Maritimes. With relative dry low levels
and downsloping boundary layer flow, the shortwaves should pass
through dry. Highs on Saturday and low Saturday night should be
around 5-10 degrees below normal.

Deep layered ridging then begins to builds in Sunday and continues
to ridge over the area through Tuesday. Subsidence associated with
the ridge should keep things dry and relatively (if not totally)
cloud free during this time frame. Highs Sunday-Tuesday run a few
degrees below normal and lows during this time frame run 5-10
degrees below normal.

Noting that 1) the GFS has a known progressive bias in the long term
and 2) that the upper level pattern features closed lows and fairly
sharp ridges - both of which support a less progressive pattern -
favor the slower lifting of the ridge axis to the NE and arrival of
the next system in the ECMWF/CMC Global than the more progressive GFS
handling of both features. The forecast Tuesday night-Wednesday is
based on a blend of the ECMWF/CMC Global as a result.

Tuesday night should be dry as the deep layered ridge axis lifts to
the northeast. Most of Wednesday should probably be dry as well, but
to keep things simple, given the inherent uncertainty this far out,
have run chance pops the entire period for some warm advection
induced rains. Lows Tuesday night should be near to slightly above
normal and highs on Wednesday a few degrees below normal.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326768 · Replies: · Views: 56,944

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 19 2018, 05:24 AM


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Raining with sleet mix outside with a temp of 39°. "TRACE" of snow in the books today.

Incredible pattern since Christmas really with all the precip days.

Snowing in Western MA.

Looks like Chicago got some accumulating snow

Quick burst of snow for Northern Indiana & Ohio.


2-6amEST Loop.



  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326758 · Replies: · Views: 1,962

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 18 2018, 05:02 PM


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Loop last 4 hours..With storm reports on... 1-5pmCST

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326739 · Replies: · Views: 2,088

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 18 2018, 04:57 PM


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Plow Cam from Southern MN.

Check out NWS Twin Cities "Likes"
https://twitter.com/NWSTwinCities/likes

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326737 · Replies: · Views: 2,088

NorEaster07
Posted on: Apr 18 2018, 04:54 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Unreal.

Check out NWS La Crosses "liked tweets". Lots of pics.

11 inches at the Iowa/Minnesota border today. What The? blink.gif

https://twitter.com/ChrisKuball/status/986683863077400576

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326736 · Replies: · Views: 2,088

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