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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
StL weatherjunki...
post Today, 03:59 PM
Post #321




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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Sep 21 2017, 04:43 PM) *
Few things in life are a guarantee, but I can guarantee that this winter will be quite different than the last. First and foremost, it's very unlikely that California has another record setting precip year.

The La Nina is stronger so the fire hose of moisture should land farther north than California along the west coast. As of this moment in time, my best bet is British Columbia in December and the Pac NW in Jan/Feb.

This has important implications across the US with a more positive PNA early in the season and a more negative PNA later in the season. Therefore, December into January is likely the best time frame for eastern snow interests. Plus, March/April are always a wild card irrespective of what happens during the winter season.

I wanted to put some visuals with my words.

The season as a whole will quite likely be warmer than normal across the US:
Attached File  DJF99_00_500mb.gif ( 15.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


The month by month breakdown does give a couple shreds of hope in the Dec/Jan time frame though:
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Dec99_500mb.gif ( 13.89K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  Jan00_500mb.gif ( 14.91K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  Feb00_500mb.gif ( 17.61K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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snowgeek93
post Today, 04:11 PM
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Moderate La Nina's are usually a goldmine for my area (Southern Ontario) but that 1999-2000 analog does not bode well for my region if it comes true. That was a pretty lame season across the great lakes region. I'd even take last year over that winter any day.


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Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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grace
post Today, 04:49 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Sep 21 2017, 03:59 PM) *
I wanted to put some visuals with my words.

The season as a whole will quite likely be warmer than normal across the US:
Attached File  DJF99_00_500mb.gif ( 15.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


The month by month breakdown does give a couple shreds of hope in the Dec/Jan time frame though:



Keep in mind 1999-2000 had a +QBO. This winter likely moderate to strongly - QBO. Unlikely to have the same outcome.
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