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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
RobB
post Jan 14 2018, 07:28 PM
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conifer1
post Jan 15 2018, 06:15 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 14 2018, 08:28 PM) *
.


I keep seeing modeling depicting four or five day stretches of 50's and 60's for my area in the long range only to get to the long range and it is actually at or below normal. Usually, it is the other way around. I am noticing more southern stream involvement going forward also.


--------------------
Snow in the South is wonderful. It has a kind of magic and mystery that it has nowhere else. And the reason for this is that it comes to people in the South not as the grim, unyielding tenant of Winter's keep, but as a strange and wild visitor from the secret North - Thomas Wolfe
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jdrenken
post Jan 15 2018, 08:18 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 14 2018, 06:28 PM) *
.


It reminds me of how people who blankly stare at the 6-10 & 8-14 CPC outlooks. They see one color and can't believe a switch to the other will happen at all during that time period.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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RobB
post Jan 15 2018, 08:26 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 15 2018, 08:18 AM) *
It reminds me of how people who blankly stare at the 6-10 & 8-14 CPC outlooks. They see one color and can't believe a switch to the other will happen at all during that time period.



Indeed. It is often forgotten this is an average over a period of time. Even the 5 dayers I post can be hiding some daily swings the other way.

Not too mention the CPC maps showing above normal probabilities but no notation as to what degree above (or below) normal it is.

This post has been edited by RobB: Jan 15 2018, 08:31 AM
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RobB
post Jan 15 2018, 08:30 AM
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1/15 0Z NAEFS:
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RobB
post Jan 15 2018, 08:30 AM
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1/15 0Z Euro EPS 5 day 850 mb temp anomalies:


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Attached File  EPS850Day0_5.PNG ( 813.28K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS850Day5_10.png ( 775.42K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS850Day10_15.png ( 776.53K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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RobB
post Jan 15 2018, 08:32 AM
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1/15 0Z Euro EPS 5 day 2 meter temp anomalies:


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Attached File  EPS2MeterDay0_5.PNG ( 893.54K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS2MeterDay5_10.PNG ( 861.27K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  EPS2MeterDay10_15.PNG ( 842.52K ) Number of downloads: 0
 
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NorEaster07
post Jan 15 2018, 12:57 PM
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Interesting discussion from NWS Minneapolis and a map to show it. Reason why the Arctic Air is leaving is...........


QUOTE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1121 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018


Main theme for the extended is the expected pattern shift this
week that will have two impacts. One, the arctic air is out of
here after Tuesday. The other is a longwave weather pattern will
be in place by next weekend that will leave the door open for more
active weather locally.

The reason our arctic air will get out of here so quickly is tied to
the energy we are seeing this morning out over the north Pacific.
The broad trough out there will continue to work toward western
North America over the next couple of days, which will finally break
down the western ridge. The western ridge that has been the source
of our northwest flow and arctic air. As the ridge breaks down, we
will see it flatten out and slide east. This will result in the
compressional warming of an airmass that will be heading our way
from the Canadian Rockies.

For Wednesday thru Saturday, our highs
and lows could be as much 5 degrees warmer than what we currently
have. The ECMWF continues to be the warmest guidance these days, and
the last time we got into a Pacific airmass back between the 7th and
11th, it was the ECMWF that performed best in that pattern. The one
difference tough between then and now is back on the 7th-11th, we
had a rather beige snowpack that had lots of bare ground showing

Thanks to yesterdays clipper, we have a more complete snowpack in
place, so kept the more tempered SuperBlend numbers in place. Still,
on Friday, as a cold front moves into MN, we could very well see
lots of 40s show up from west central into south central MN.




Current Upper Level Heights..

There's the dipping Jet stream over the Pacific which will move east into Western U.S/Canada and that will flatten the current ridge in place and move that east. Hence the warmup coming later this week for Eastern U.S.

That Upper Level Low over Great Lakes will just stretch out. I don't think the Northeast had any Upper Lows over the area this winter. Just troughs.

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jdrenken
post Jan 15 2018, 02:30 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 15 2018, 07:30 AM) *
1/15 0Z NAEFS:


In a word...



--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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RobB
post Jan 15 2018, 03:28 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 15 2018, 02:30 PM) *
In a word...




LOL

Here's the 12Z BTW
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RobB
post Jan 15 2018, 04:43 PM
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1/15 12Z Euro EPS 5 day 850 mb temp anomalies:


Attached File(s)
Attached File  EPS850Day0_5.PNG ( 817.71K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  EPS850Day5_10.png ( 782.87K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS850Day10_15.png ( 783.96K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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RobB
post Jan 15 2018, 04:43 PM
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1/15 12Z Euro EPS 5 day 2 meter temp anomalies:


Attached File(s)
Attached File  EPS2MeterDay0_5.PNG ( 872.17K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS2MeterDay5_10.PNG ( 866.52K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  EPS2MeterDay10_15.PNG ( 846.12K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 15 2018, 06:50 PM
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looks like a smoking hot setup for the upper plains/MW coming up, they are due for a good thumping, arguably the furthest behind in climatology snowfall

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stxprowl
post Jan 15 2018, 09:51 PM
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I guess I can’t complain about snowfall IMBY anymore. Poor snow lovers in TX and OK.
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RobB
post Jan 15 2018, 09:54 PM
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QUOTE(stxprowl @ Jan 15 2018, 09:51 PM) *
I guess I can’t complain about snowfall IMBY anymore. Poor snow lovers in TX and OK.
Attached File  313DC119_DD1B_4F54_B7CE_7E4ADCDB385C.png ( 500.84K ) Number of downloads: 8



Yet another reason I am not a fan of using a 'headline' as a statistic. Yep, my National Weather Service office has recently issued a warning ending the drought. That was for the southern tier of counties. Northern tier are still within a drought. Goofy stat.
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 15 2018, 10:41 PM
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Not bad for 3 weeks into astronomical winter..

At least a Trace of snow 29 of the last 36 days..

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This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Jan 16 2018, 01:46 AM


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 172.3”(as of 3/17)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2”
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2”
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 15 2018, 10:56 PM
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Temp anomalies can be deceiving especially when avg temps are in the upper 20’s, looks like a few warm days followed by slightly above average temps..

Attached File  992FFD47_94E7_4665_8964_0E3BAE29EE2F.jpeg ( 320.05K ) Number of downloads: 1


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 172.3”(as of 3/17)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2”
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2”
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1”
My PWS
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 15 2018, 11:34 PM
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CIPS analogs have a pretty decent signal for severe weather in 6-8 days.

Percent of the 105 analogs with at least 1 severe report


Percent of the 105 analogs with at least 5 severe reports


It's this system



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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RobB
post Jan 16 2018, 08:26 AM
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1/16 0Z NAEFS:

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RobB
post Jan 16 2018, 08:26 AM
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1/16 0Z Euro EPS 5 day 850 mb temp anomalies:


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Attached File  EPS5day850temp0_5.PNG ( 817.9K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS5day850temp5_10.PNG ( 879.04K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  EPS5day850temp10_15.PNG ( 773.72K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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