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> INVEST 95L
Ron in Miami
post Oct 16 2011, 09:52 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 532
Joined: 31-August 10
From: Miami FL
Member No.: 23,522





BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110161236
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2011, DB, O, 2011101512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952011
AL, 95, 2011101412, , BEST, 0, 166N, 865W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011101418, , BEST, 0, 168N, 864W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011101500, , BEST, 0, 172N, 864W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011101506, , BEST, 0, 178N, 866W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2011101512, , BEST, 0, 183N, 869W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 225, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 95, 2011101518, , BEST, 0, 187N, 873W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 95, 2011101600, , BEST, 0, 190N, 876W, 25, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 200, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 95, 2011101606, , BEST, 0, 192N, 878W, 30, 1004, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 200, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 95, 2011101612, , BEST, 0, 194N, 879W, 30, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 200, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Oct 16 2011, 09:52 AM
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Ron in Miami
post Oct 16 2011, 09:54 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 532
Joined: 31-August 10
From: Miami FL
Member No.: 23,522





1. SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXIC
O. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Oct 16 2011, 10:03 AM
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Ron in Miami
post Oct 16 2011, 02:16 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Models and forecast are from wunderground.com
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idecline
post Oct 17 2011, 04:36 AM
Post #4




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Posts: 18,481
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866





QUOTE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 170552
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS TO NEAR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE WESTERN
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE BECOMING
UNFAVORABLE AFTER THAT. ALTHOUGH THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
IS STILL POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
Taken from Accuweather Hurricane page

Now up to 60%


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jdrenken
post Oct 17 2011, 12:06 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 16 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-138

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA OFF YUCATAN
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 17/1530Z
D. 21.0N 86.0W
E. 17/1700Z TO 17/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX SYSTEM AT 18/1800Z IF IT
DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT NEAR 22.0N AND 87.0W.


QUOTE
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 17 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-139

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. 18/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
C. 18/1000Z
D. 25.3N 87.0W
E. 18/1130Z TO 18/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 19/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0318A CYCLONE
C. 18/2200Z
D. 27.5N 84.5W
E. 18/2330Z TO 19/0400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.


--------------------
QUOTE
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jdrenken
post Oct 17 2011, 05:00 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 33,409
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From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND
WINDS OF GALE FORCE...BUT NO EVIDENCE OF A CENTER OF CIRCULATION
NEAR THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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