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> Jan. 23-26 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
MaineJay
post Yesterday, 02:26 AM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 17 2018, 05:42 PM) *
Lol, ok. So should someone open a thread to cover the cutter?



Why rush it, I'm not really sold on a second wave (edit: I mean one that's explicitly distinct from the larger system) , so I'll hold off on starting a new thread, if others want to open one, that's cool too. But I'd like to see another model suite. smile.gif

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Yesterday, 02:49 AM


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MaineJay
post Yesterday, 02:55 AM
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EPS MSLP with spread for the duration of this thread. I still only see one system, am I missing something?

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https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/c...l_north_america

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Yesterday, 02:56 AM


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so_whats_happeni...
post Yesterday, 03:31 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jan 18 2018, 04:26 AM) *
Why rush it, I'm not really sold on a second wave (edit: I mean one that's explicitly distinct from the larger system) , so I'll hold off on starting a new thread, if others want to open one, that's cool too. But I'd like to see another model suite. smile.gif


Yea looking at closer detail it really doesnt look like we end up with a second low idea maybe lee side troughing near a triple point region witha wave running near by? surface warm front seems to be sitting right around Pa/md border with this and coastal front idea. Really potent jet aloft would argue that areas of southern NY through PA and down to MD may experience one wild front maybe low topped squall scenario as the GFS is painting temps barely scratching 45 probably heavy fog across the area and then front comes through rather abruptly and cool aloft and maybe ends as some heavy snow? Not very often we get something like this but that front and cold means business for tuesday Going to be a fun morning commute for a lot of folks if this timing holds.


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MaineJay
post Yesterday, 05:26 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 18 2018, 03:31 AM) *
Yea looking at closer detail it really doesnt look like we end up with a second low idea maybe lee side troughing near a triple point region witha wave running near by? surface warm front seems to be sitting right around Pa/md border with this and coastal front idea. Really potent jet aloft would argue that areas of southern NY through PA and down to MD may experience one wild front maybe low topped squall scenario as the GFS is painting temps barely scratching 45 probably heavy fog across the area and then front comes through rather abruptly and cool aloft and maybe ends as some heavy snow? Not very often we get something like this but that front and cold means business for tuesday Going to be a fun morning commute for a lot of folks if this timing holds.



GFS, and the experimental FV3 models do have a wave along the gulf coast, but I don't see a ton of support from models across the pond.

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MaineJay
post Yesterday, 05:45 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 17 2018, 05:32 PM) *



I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not, just being honest. It seems like many, especially the younger generation, like to say something, then if it's not well received, or doesn't go that way, they say they were being sarcastic, ironic, or speaking in hyperbole. Hard to tell these days. So I'll take him at his word, as that's my "default". smile.gif

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Storms R us
post Yesterday, 06:00 AM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 17 2018, 09:59 PM) *
Why do you do this every winter, and pretty much do it on every thread?? Obviously you are a warm wisher or just don't get much snow. So now you did it on the long range thread and now here. No one said this is a big winter storm here, but the warm gates aren't exactly opening either. After this weekend we are pretty much looking at normal to slightly above for most of the coverage area. I just don't get posts like this. Where was everyone screaming cold and snow? So why pollute with the warm posts?


Say what you wish as I will not stoop down to your level. If you have a problem just don't read or if you have nothing constructive to say then its best to say nothing. Your are right about one thing and that is we should be hitting normal to above normal a little bit and I usually post with a specific area like Camden DE or around BWI where I work.

BTW I grew up around the Delaware Water Gap (Jenny Jump State Park), so I like the cold.

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avsguy01
post Yesterday, 07:10 AM
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I remember in late February last year we experienced thunderstorms with wicked lightning and thunder along the Delmarva region. This potentially looks strong enough to mimic this ....that would be pretty wild for January.
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rtcemc
post Yesterday, 09:54 AM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Jan 18 2018, 06:00 AM) *
Say what you wish as I will not stoop down to your level. If you have a problem just don't read or if you have nothing constructive to say then its best to say nothing. Your are right about one thing and that is we should be hitting normal to above normal a little bit and I usually post with a specific area like Camden DE or around BWI where I work.

BTW I grew up around the Delaware Water Gap (Jenny Jump State Park), so I like the cold.

The point was , not that it really matters is you are back to doing drive by posts where you state it's just going to rain, or its too warm with no back up as to why. That's what upsets people, especially the posters that put a lot of time and effort into learning this stuff, and creating and maintaining these threads. Did you see Clap's response to your post on 2/1-2/3 thread, where he said just guessing but I bet 90 % of your posts include the word rain? I don't even know where you are located, as it isn't listed. I'm sick of the cold and don't even like much snow anymore, but it is what it is and where I am located we average about 3 feet of snow every year. I'm guessing where you live it probably is a heck of a lot less, so yea most storms will be warmer. Nothing personal, just think it confuses inexperienced posters or people just tuning in to get the great forecasts in here.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Yesterday, 10:25 AM
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QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Jan 18 2018, 09:10 AM) *
I remember in late February last year we experienced thunderstorms with wicked lightning and thunder along the Delmarva region. This potentially looks strong enough to mimic this ....that would be pretty wild for January.


Yea the last two february have offered us some rare severe weather out here 60's and hail with wind and then a week later some snows. Im fine with the swings in the pattern at least makes it fun. Im thinking though we get at least one east coast system that drops the ender for the averages across many areas. To behonest many along coastal plain only need about a foot to hit average which well that can be one storm. Soon as we get a healthy storm and hit average Im good bring on spring!


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Storms R us
post Yesterday, 10:45 AM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 18 2018, 09:54 AM) *
The point was , not that it really matters is you are back to doing drive by posts where you state it's just going to rain, or its too warm with no back up as to why. That's what upsets people, especially the posters that put a lot of time and effort into learning this stuff, and creating and maintaining these threads. Did you see Clap's response to your post on 2/1-2/3 thread, where he said just guessing but I bet 90 % of your posts include the word rain? I don't even know where you are located, as it isn't listed. I'm sick of the cold and don't even like much snow anymore, but it is what it is and where I am located we average about 3 feet of snow every year. I'm guessing where you live it probably is a heck of a lot less, so yea most storms will be warmer. Nothing personal, just think it confuses inexperienced posters or people just tuning in to get the great forecasts in here.



I do go by what others post i.e. maps, guidance from models that are all posted in these forms. At times I do post model guidance or Hazards Warnings for our area and try to make it to my area and you call me confusing. I thank posters for correcting me and point out my mistakes. There are posters who I don't call out that will talk about snow and say big hit etc. but don't explain where in the mid Atlantic as if the mid Atlantic is only PA/NJ when it encompasses a larger area.

I haven't been back to that board lately since someone posted guidance and I responded to the post. There is no reason why someone cannot respond to a post that may show a lot of rain for their area. Again the mid Atlantic area is bigger than your back yards. Some veteran posters agree with what I state at times but not always and that is good for discussion. There are some who will complain where are all the 95ers guess it's not in there backyard.

I'm done and will provide comments at least for my area stating either Camden DE or Dover DE with at times focusing on Severn MD area since I work in that area and at times will include traffic cameras to back up things when an event is going on. If the guidance shows rain I'm not going to ignore and say snow and a lot of the comments I have stated in this last event was pointing at the troff being positive and you could see it on the guidance people were posting.
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Solstice
post Yesterday, 12:04 PM
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Tasty tasty ICON & CMC bait


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Winter Storms of 2017 - 2018 North American Winter:
12/09 - Winter Storm - 6.5" Snowfall, 5.5" Snowdepth.
12/14 - Clipper - 1.5" Snowfall, 2.5" Snowdepth.
12/15 - Winter Storm - 1.5" Snowfall, 4.0" Snowdepth.
12/25 - Winter Storm - 1.6" Snowfall, 1.6" Snowdepth.
12/30 - Winter Storm - 1.4" Snowfall, 1.7" Snowdepth.
01/04 - Nor'easter Blizzard - 11.5" Snowfall, 13.0" Snowdepth.
01/08 - Winter Storm - 0.5" Snowfall, 10.5" Snowdepth.
01/13 - Snow Showers - Trace Snowfall, 0" Snowdepth.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
01/15 Night - Snow remains in plow trails. No natural snow left.
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Fire/Rescue
post Yesterday, 02:28 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 18 2018, 12:04 PM) *
Tasty tasty ICON & CMC bait


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Wow man sure enough is, surely don't look like a whole lot of mildish air in place.

With regard to THESE particular graphics that is.
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risingriver
post Yesterday, 02:37 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 18 2018, 12:04 PM) *
Tasty tasty ICON & CMC bait


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The first image has a lot of green above and behind the 540 line in Central and Northern Virginia. Doze darn Germans... mad.gif At least the Canadians are friendly enough to share their snow. tongue.gif
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jordan4385
post Yesterday, 02:46 PM
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This guys almost coming into range. super excited. The longer you go without, the better chance you will be with.


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The Day After To...
post Yesterday, 02:58 PM
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QUOTE(jordan4385 @ Jan 18 2018, 02:46 PM) *
This guys almost coming into range. super excited. The longer you go without, the better chance you will be with.

Is this the weather nerd equivalent of "the other shoe dropping"?

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Storms R us
post Yesterday, 11:45 PM
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23 rd 00z GFS has GLC and the 26th 00z GFS looks like a wide troff and ots.
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stretchct
post Today, 02:46 AM
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But wait. Here comes the Euro with a transfer through CT/MA.
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My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"

First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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