Long Range Winter 2009/2010 Outlooks- Plains/MW/OV/GL Options

[Removed_Member_Detroit_*]

Alot has been said about and un-normal start to winter. I disagree with respect to SE Michigan. We have had a warm November and dry but how typicall is this ? From my own observation and good ole memory it is typical. I can only remember snow on Thanksgiving about twice in the last 10 years. The temps are declining nice and overnight lows are dipping below freezing finally. While looking at he latest models for the up-coming week it can be said winter is marching slowly down from Canada. It wouldnt even supprise me if SE Michigan doesnt get its first mesurable snow until mid- late December. Lets not forget to look at the Calender. Its not even Dember yet and weather can change very fast and pattern changes can sneak up out of nowhere. GFS models are in line with this. There is one thing I can remember for sure..I cant remember a Winter when it never snowed or got cold! The debate can say just how cold and snowy will SE Michigan be?

[chfs327]

Btw. Just as saying right now. I dont really think accuweather does a good job with there forecasts. Not just long range. But Overall Saying Stuff like Life Threatening Tornadoes on a slight risk day and Saying That Life threatening flooding would occur when 2 inches of rain fell. Just random stuff like that Is basically losing respect by alot of major Meterlogists across the nation. Because there Not accuarate most of the time but just striking Fear into peoples hearts as well.

To me To be a suscessful Weather Team or Website. You have to hit these 5 major things

#1 Accuracy
#2 Consistancy
#3 Speed
#4 Precision
#5 Effency

If You are sucessful In being Accurate Constistancy. People Will Get to you more. If You carry put information Quickly that is accurate and your consistant with it. People will come to you. Striking fear into people with bull**** Headlines about how Your life could be in danger with these tornadoes with only 1 or 2 strike down is bored.

[BriSr]

My call for a winter storm on the 7th back in July is panning out real close. Not bad for a rookie astromet. The mild part for overall is probably out the window, as I alluded to in the Dec outlook for the region.

Back in post 11:

December
Mostly mild for the majority of region, exception being the Lakes, where it could end up being more seasonable to cooler. Couple strong, windy storms around the 7th, and 21st. A couple strong cold shots around 16th, and 24th. A very mild end to the month.

[BriSr]

This is the Lunar ingress chart for the 7th-9th of Dec.

 Dec_7_lunar_ingress_virgo.gif ( 17.88K ) Number of downloads: 0


The Mercury/Pluto conjunction at the MC in squ of Saturn(low pressure) on the Descendant shows a storm with high winds (because of the Mer/Plu conj). Mercury is known as the governor of wind. Mars's semisquare, and sesquisquare to the trio is helping with the intensity. Because the conj is on the MC, the storm would be centered more south, and with Sat to the east of me on the Desc, more to the east of me.

Mercury, and Pluto conjuncting seems to always bring in high wind situations, whether gradient, and/or severe wx.

This trio will do this again in mid Jan over our region with what looks to be a one-two punch (first more NW, and the second more SE through the region), and this time Mercury will be stationing in conj with Pluto, and in squ with a stationed Saturn. Stationing planets seem to have a stronger effect with there influence a few days before, and after they do so. It'll be followed by the coldest air of the season.

[Removed_Member_AstroMet_*]

This is the Lunar ingress chart for the 7th-9th of Dec.

 Dec_7_lunar_ingress_virgo.gif ( 17.88K ) Number of downloads: 0


The Mercury/Pluto conjunction at the MC in squ of Saturn(low pressure) on the Descendant shows a storm with high winds (because of the Mer/Plu conj). Mercury is known as the governor of wind. Mars's semisquare, and sesquisquare to the trio is helping with the intensity. Because the conj is on the MC, the storm would be centered more south, and with Sat to the east of me on the Desc, more to the east of me.

Mercury, and Pluto conjuncting seems to always bring in high wind situations, whether gradient, and/or severe wx.

This trio will do this again in mid Jan over our region with what looks to be a one-two punch (first more NW, and the second more SE through the region), and this time Mercury will be stationing in conj with Pluto, and in squ with a stationed Saturn. Stationing planets seem to have a stronger effect with there influence a few days before, and after they do so. It'll be followed by the coldest air of the season.

Hi Brian -

Glad to see you are working on astromet forecasting. Try just the lunar phase charts for the geographic region and forecast for the week from there. Note declination of the Moon in its phase north or south, as well as planets on the angles, especially the IC, which is the strongest.

[BriSr]

Hi Brian -

Glad to see you are working on astromet forecasting. Try just the lunar phase charts for the geographic region and forecast for the week from there. Note declination of the Moon in its phase north or south, as well as planets on the angles, especially the IC, which is the strongest.

Actually I do use the phase charts. Ingress charts, I've noticed, are helpful, as well.

[Removed_Member_nicnic_*]

 LOL.GIF ( 16.46K ) Number of downloads: 7

Final winter snow map.

[Removed_Member_thehammer_*]

 LOL.GIF ( 16.46K ) Number of downloads: 7

Final winter snow map.

haha...you nailed it!

[Stormwatcher93]

the current enso event does match up nicely with '93. if you want a blizzard in the southeast or eastern OV, i think this year could bare fruit.

no one is talking about a ridge in the se either. this could cut down on the amount of LC's and give way to an app runner or two. any knowledge on the se ridge or non-existant of the se ridge would be appreciated...

my bet is winter temps stay around normal to .5 below normal in the east.

Oh man i remember 93 , it started out around halloween and it was tornadoes, hail etc and rain all night and woke up and that night it had turned into a bad blizzard, maybe it will happen again i hope??