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> Nov 25-27, 2015 Mid/NE Thanksgiving storm, Long range
grandpaboy
post Nov 9 2015, 08:04 PM
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Never too early to start a holiday thread...especially GFS 384 map.... tongue.gif

In all seriousness, we will be entering a pretty active period the next few weeks, due mostly to the SWJ mostly cutters...but at least it wont be boring... wink.gif

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just a guy who despises weather but loves the drama....


whats going to happen when weather is predictable:...-me
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grandpaboy
post Nov 9 2015, 08:11 PM
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Alittle too early for tellies ...but everything looks pretty neutral beyond 14 days...

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just a guy who despises weather but loves the drama....


whats going to happen when weather is predictable:...-me
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JDClapper
post Nov 9 2015, 09:14 PM
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Heck, just to add to the early entertainment of this thread.. here's some candy for the Apps.


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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 5"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Cool, thanks.
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 9 2015, 10:19 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 9 2015, 09:14 PM) *
Heck, just to add to the early entertainment of this thread.. here's some candy for the Apps.


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If only laugh.gif
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 10 2015, 01:39 PM
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Large persistent blocking signal in the NAO region around the ~24th showing up

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...MJO/block.shtml


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Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
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MD Blue Ridge
post Nov 10 2015, 01:50 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Nov 9 2015, 09:14 PM) *
Heck, just to add to the early entertainment of this thread.. here's some candy for the Apps.


Attached Image


ahhh a snow map for the high country...smile.gif delightful...last two years thanksgiving has been white, and Christmas has not...will it continue?


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 10 2015, 04:10 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 10 2015, 01:39 PM) *
Large persistent blocking signal in the NAO region around the ~24th showing up

Attached Image

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...MJO/block.shtml


Oddly enough today's esrl teleconnection forecast has a +ve NAO toward the end of it's range. It does however have a epo that is freshly negative and a PNA that is on the rise.
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Do keep in mind this is beyond even D10 range. This is simple harmless non-snowmap hype tongue.gif



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Undertakerson
post Nov 10 2015, 04:14 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 10 2015, 01:39 PM) *
Large persistent blocking signal in the NAO region around the ~24th showing up

Attached Image

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...MJO/block.shtml

It's been quite a long long time since I last saw those green bars (showing the strength of the block) above the NAO region. As in, it may have been 2 or even 3 winters ago since I've seen that (in the cold season that is).


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Harleigh Hal
post Nov 11 2015, 12:04 AM
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FWIW, the 18 z GFS has been perty consistent with a Rain to Snow scenario the last few days.... laugh.gif rolleyes.gif

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This post has been edited by Harleigh Hal: Nov 11 2015, 12:08 AM


--------------------
Snowfall Totals - 2014 - 2018

2014-15 - 61.50 Inches through 3-31-15

2015-16 - 22 & 1/4 Inches plus a skosh thru April 3rd.

2016-17 - 56.25 Inches Through March 15th, 2017

2017-18 - 13.5 Inches Through January 13th, 2018

Banned from commenting against DT since 2012, but now there's Twitter, so I can Trump him!
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shaulov4
post Nov 11 2015, 12:13 AM
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QUOTE(Harleigh Hal @ Nov 11 2015, 12:04 AM) *
FWIW, the 18 z GFS has been perty consistent with a Rain to Snow scenario the last few days.... laugh.gif rolleyes.gif

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This storm is kind of similar to the senario we had right around thanksgiving time last year, but of course it was more realistic due to the cold nature November was last year. However it is very intriguing how storms tend to come around similar time frames compared to years prior.
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shaulov4
post Nov 11 2015, 12:32 AM
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http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?ac...t&id=243587

This is from last years Thanksgiving storm, although storm tracks are different, it is still interesting to see that both see a storm from the 300hr range.

This post has been edited by shaulov4: Nov 11 2015, 12:36 AM
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Undertakerson
post Nov 11 2015, 03:57 AM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Nov 11 2015, 12:32 AM) *
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?ac...t&id=243587

This is from last years Thanksgiving storm, although storm tracks are different, it is still interesting to see that both see a storm from the 300hr range.

laugh.gif I just jumped back to pg 13 and read the lead in thread for last year's Turkey Day storm. Yikes, the models were all over the place with that one for a while. Interestingly, some of the first comments in this thread - also appear in that thread.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...31974&st=80


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MD Blue Ridge
post Nov 11 2015, 08:14 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 11 2015, 03:57 AM) *
laugh.gif I just jumped back to pg 13 and read the lead in thread for last year's Turkey Day storm. Yikes, the models were all over the place with that one for a while. Interestingly, some of the first comments in this thread - also appear in that thread.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...31974&st=80


That was such a wonderful event and thanks for posting last years thread, I know were a ways out but cant help but get excited. Had a good time reading through the old posts. It does appear a cooler trend is on the way, but enough to support snowfall? we shall see.

Just went and relived the OBS of that storm, was a wonderful 8"+ above 1400' here, forgot that the lower spots in MD, southern PA got the shaft.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Nov 11 2015, 08:27 AM


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Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
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sometimes Accident, MD
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Undertakerson
post Nov 11 2015, 08:27 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Nov 11 2015, 08:14 AM) *
That was such a wonderful event and thanks for posting last years thread, I know were a ways out but cant help but get excited. Had a good time reading through the old posts. It does appear a cooler trend is on the way, but enough to support snowfall? we shall see.

Yes, and the current modeling is also all over the place - they are trying to sort out the upper level picture out west with the projection of split flow. That always leads to great variability (see the 15-18 storm modeling for example). If the models can't figure out the nearer term system, there's virtually no hope they can do anything worthwhile with this time period, being still in very long range.


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kpk33x
post Nov 11 2015, 08:27 AM
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I'll have to watch. If this one trends colder and puts some snow down like last year (we got a foot up here) then I can take the day after Thanksgiving off and go skiing!

EDIT - it would be nice if it got colder too, they can't make snow yet.

This post has been edited by kpk33x: Nov 11 2015, 08:28 AM


--------------------
Winter 2017 - Mahomet, IL

Snowfall:
October: T
November: T
December: 4.25" (Dec. 27th)

# subzero lows to date: 1
Lowest temperature: -3F
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MD Blue Ridge
post Nov 11 2015, 08:46 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 11 2015, 08:27 AM) *
Yes, and the current modeling is also all over the place - they are trying to sort out the upper level picture out west with the projection of split flow. That always leads to great variability (see the 15-18 storm modeling for example). If the models can't figure out the nearer term system, there's virtually no hope they can do anything worthwhile with this time period, being still in very long range.


Models are a mess with temps right now. I shouldn't have read OBS from that storm last year, I was very happy and content with the warmer weather this November, now I can't stop thinking about winter...


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sometimes Accident, MD
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 11 2015, 10:27 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Nov 11 2015, 08:14 AM) *
That was such a wonderful event and thanks for posting last years thread, I know were a ways out but cant help but get excited. Had a good time reading through the old posts. It does appear a cooler trend is on the way, but enough to support snowfall? we shall see.

Just went and relived the OBS of that storm, was a wonderful 8"+ above 1400' here, forgot that the lower spots in MD, southern PA got the shaft.

Don't we always.....hahahaha laugh.gif

But in all seriousness, yea the coastal plain very seldom (if ever) fairs well during a marginal set up with regard to surface/column profile temps.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Nov 11 2015, 10:35 AM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Nov 11 2015, 10:27 AM) *
Don't we always.....hahahaha laugh.gif

But in all seriousness, yea the coastal plain very seldom (if ever) fairs well during a marginal set up with regard to surface/column profile temps.


Especially early or late in the season. The ocean/bay seems more often then not to win the battle, and that's true a good ways up the coast as well.


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sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


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Road Runner
post Nov 11 2015, 11:45 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Nov 11 2015, 08:46 AM) *
Models are a mess with temps right now. I shouldn't have read OBS from that storm last year, I was very happy and content with the warmer weather this November, now I can't stop thinking about winter...



I remember last year how crucial the temps were here in NJ. Elevation was literally your best friend. My side of town is a few hundred feet higher than downtown, and we got a little more than them. That's how crazy that storm was, and it was actually pretty cool to watch.

That's why what you said about the models makes me wonder if we will have a similar situation. Still far away, but still interesting.

This post has been edited by Road Runner: Nov 11 2015, 12:04 PM
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Fire/Rescue
post Nov 11 2015, 01:54 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Nov 11 2015, 10:35 AM) *
Especially early or late in the season. The ocean/bay seems more often then not to win the battle, and that's true a good ways up the coast as well.

Absolutely man.....the bay needs to be at least partially frozen over (such as the past 2 winters "Jan-Feb" time frame) for us here in close to proximity to it not to experience it's realitivly milder marine layer then say just 10 miles away to the North and West.
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