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> Dec. 31 - Jan 3 MidAtlantic/NE Winter Storm, Forecast Topic CLOSED; SEE OBS
Poconos Blizzard
post Dec 30 2009, 08:23 PM
Post #6961




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,031
Joined: 30-January 09
From: Jacksonville Beach, FL
Member No.: 17,252





QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Dec 30 2009, 08:20 PM) *
Yeah if anything it is probably going to be underdone...


You have to be liking what you are seeing right now Matt. The radar and the precip shield is pretty impressive IMO. Thoughts?


--------------------
Jax Beach, FL
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sw03181
post Dec 30 2009, 08:23 PM
Post #6962




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 7,354
Joined: 7-December 08
From: South Windsor, CT
Member No.: 16,373





QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Dec 30 2009, 08:15 PM) *
First off i do not pay anything for models..Second of all look at a radar and tell me what is happening smile.gif [attachment=72271:inmaSIRUS_.gif] Now you say 6-12 inches has no support.. Here is HPC 5 day total QPF [attachment=72273:p120i12.gif] Thats alot of liquid huh? [attachment=72274:day2_psnow_gt_04.gif] The above is day 2 (4 inches or more) [attachment=72275:day3_psnow_gt_04.gif] The above is day 3 (4 inches or more) [attachment=72276:day3_psnow_gt_08.gif] The above is day 3 for 8 inches or more [attachment=72277:day3_psnow_gt_12.gif] And the above is for the chance of at least 12 inches... So no support? Keep in mind that my map was issued before these maps were issued.
atown, your map has me getting 6-12 but hpc`s has me getting less than 4


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


[size=2]2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40 /- 6"
Actual: 14.25"

11/14: 0.25"
11/26: 2.5"
11/27: T
12/2: T
12/11: 0.5"
12/20: T (flurries)
12/21 2.0
1/2: T (flurries)
1/3: 1"
1/6: T (dusting)
1/7: T (flurries)
1/9: 3"
1/14: T (dusting)
1/24: 5"
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sw03181
post Dec 30 2009, 08:23 PM
Post #6963




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,354
Joined: 7-December 08
From: South Windsor, CT
Member No.: 16,373





QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Dec 30 2009, 08:15 PM) *
First off i do not pay anything for models..Second of all look at a radar and tell me what is happening smile.gif [attachment=72271:inmaSIRUS_.gif] Now you say 6-12 inches has no support.. Here is HPC 5 day total QPF [attachment=72273:p120i12.gif] Thats alot of liquid huh? [attachment=72274:day2_psnow_gt_04.gif] The above is day 2 (4 inches or more) [attachment=72275:day3_psnow_gt_04.gif] The above is day 3 (4 inches or more) [attachment=72276:day3_psnow_gt_08.gif] The above is day 3 for 8 inches or more [attachment=72277:day3_psnow_gt_12.gif] And the above is for the chance of at least 12 inches... So no support? Keep in mind that my map was issued before these maps were issued.
atown, your map has me getting 6-12 but hpc`s has me getting less than 4


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


[size=2]2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40 /- 6"
Actual: 14.25"

11/14: 0.25"
11/26: 2.5"
11/27: T
12/2: T
12/11: 0.5"
12/20: T (flurries)
12/21 2.0
1/2: T (flurries)
1/3: 1"
1/6: T (dusting)
1/7: T (flurries)
1/9: 3"
1/14: T (dusting)
1/24: 5"
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Removed_Member_md1_*
post Dec 30 2009, 08:24 PM
Post #6964







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Thick cloud cover from west to east boundry layer is at I97 looks neat haven't seen such a thick cloud boundry moving like that in a while.
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Removed_Member_BaltimoreWeatherguy21_*
post Dec 30 2009, 08:25 PM
Post #6965







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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 30 2009, 08:23 PM) *
atown, your map has me getting 6-12 but hpc`s has me getting less than 4

Huh? Are you referring to HPC's probability map? if so your reading it wrong..Its not a snow map, its a probability map.
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Dec 30 2009, 08:25 PM
Post #6966







Guests








Current radar

Attached Image

29 degrees currently with a DP of 13
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sw03181
post Dec 30 2009, 08:25 PM
Post #6967




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 7,354
Joined: 7-December 08
From: South Windsor, CT
Member No.: 16,373





QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Dec 30 2009, 08:15 PM) *
First off i do not pay anything for models..Second of all look at a radar and tell me what is happening smile.gif [attachment=72271:inmaSIRUS_.gif] Now you say 6-12 inches has no support.. Here is HPC 5 day total QPF [attachment=72273:p120i12.gif] Thats alot of liquid huh? [attachment=72274:day2_psnow_gt_04.gif] The above is day 2 (4 inches or more) [attachment=72275:day3_psnow_gt_04.gif] The above is day 3 (4 inches or more) [attachment=72276:day3_psnow_gt_08.gif] The above is day 3 for 8 inches or more [attachment=72277:day3_psnow_gt_12.gif] And the above is for the chance of at least 12 inches... So no support? Keep in mind that my map was issued before these maps were issued.
atown, your map has me getting 6-12 but hpc`s has me getting less than 4


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


[size=2]2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40 /- 6"
Actual: 14.25"

11/14: 0.25"
11/26: 2.5"
11/27: T
12/2: T
12/11: 0.5"
12/20: T (flurries)
12/21 2.0
1/2: T (flurries)
1/3: 1"
1/6: T (dusting)
1/7: T (flurries)
1/9: 3"
1/14: T (dusting)
1/24: 5"
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tick629
post Dec 30 2009, 08:25 PM
Post #6968




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 645
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Member No.: 12,063





Guys,
Please stay on topic or I will issue warnings.


--------------------
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anysnowindc10
post Dec 30 2009, 08:26 PM
Post #6969




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Member No.: 16,808





Could This storm possibly ride up the Coast?????
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Removed_Member_md1_*
post Dec 30 2009, 08:26 PM
Post #6970







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BTW I've been keeping an eye on the intellicast radar and looks very impressive with the precip moving NE
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Kyle P
post Dec 30 2009, 08:27 PM
Post #6971




Rank: Tornado
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QUOTE(rbowling @ Dec 30 2009, 08:21 PM) *
This going back and forth is going to get the thread shut down again, stop and lets talk about the storm!

we are discussing the storm. by discussing things (just off the top of my head in last few posts) such as current dew points, ATown wx has brought up nowcasting variables, model guidnace, etc. YOU on the other hand just posting for me to cool down is not contributing to the discussion, but breaking the momentum of it...besides this will be an OBS thread before you know it.

QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Dec 30 2009, 08:22 PM) *
Excuse me those are the latest maps perhaps you should look when they were issued

2014 Z wednesday..Guess what thats today 4 hours ago at 4 PM

I was referring to snow maps...they have showed that playout the whole time (+/- small very area changes)
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Poconos Blizzard
post Dec 30 2009, 08:27 PM
Post #6972




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Jacksonville Beach, FL
Member No.: 17,252





Latest pressure maps?


--------------------
Jax Beach, FL
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Superstorm93
post Dec 30 2009, 08:27 PM
Post #6973




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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I give up...

dry.gif


QUOTE
Thursday: Snow likely before noon, then rain. High near 36. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday Night: A chance of rain before 3am, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

New Year's Day: A chance of snow before 9am, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Light wind becoming northwest between 10 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: A chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Northwest wind between 11 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


--------------------
Millersville University Meteorology Major
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winterdude14
post Dec 30 2009, 08:28 PM
Post #6974




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From: State College, PA
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QUOTE(WEATHERFAN100 @ Dec 30 2009, 07:06 PM) *
Already down to 27 F which was the forecasted low temp. Could this play any factor for a longer period of snow and limiting any mixing issues?

OT: anyone from Pennsylvania want to help me with my new PAweathercenter site, just send me a message. Thanks.

Your forecasted low is 25F according to NWS.

24.4F here...with a forecasted low of 24F.
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Poconos Blizzard
post Dec 30 2009, 08:29 PM
Post #6975




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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Dec 30 2009, 08:25 PM) *
Current radar

Attached Image

29 degrees currently with a DP of 13


Wasnt the energy supposed to be transfered off the coast by now?


--------------------
Jax Beach, FL
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Removed_Member_BaltimoreWeatherguy21_*
post Dec 30 2009, 08:29 PM
Post #6976







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QUOTE(md1 @ Dec 30 2009, 08:26 PM) *
BTW I've been keeping an eye on the intellicast radar and looks very impressive with the precip moving NE

The intellicast radar is a bit overdone...Much like Accuweather's it picks up on virga too much.
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Dec 30 2009, 08:29 PM
Post #6977







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QUOTE(Poconos Blizzard @ Dec 30 2009, 08:27 PM) *
Latest pressure maps?

Attached Image
Continue to show the lowest pressure digging southeast from OK/TX panhandle and the pressure in the gulf slowly expanding.
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LoveNYCSnow
post Dec 30 2009, 08:29 PM
Post #6978




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Dec 30 2009, 08:27 PM) *
I give up...

dry.gif


don't worruy about that forecast


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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RickRD
post Dec 30 2009, 08:29 PM
Post #6979




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Nazareth, PA
Member No.: 12,088





QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Dec 30 2009, 08:25 PM) *
Current radar

Attached Image

29 degrees currently with a DP of 13

Wow, very impressive looking radar!

Is there a map out showing what actual stations are reporting hitting the ground?

I would think if I forecasted 1 -2 inches of snow and all the precip was hitting the ground, I would be a little nervous right now.....
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Poconos Blizzard
post Dec 30 2009, 08:30 PM
Post #6980




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Jacksonville Beach, FL
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QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Dec 30 2009, 08:27 PM) *
I give up...

dry.gif


Imo dont listen to anything but the radar. wink.gif


--------------------
Jax Beach, FL
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