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ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Today, 03:18 AM


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So sad this is at the end of the run... this system would be about to explode... 100+ knots swinging around the trough sad.gif

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253120 · Replies: · Views: 231,599

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Today, 03:04 AM


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Over 100 damaging wind reports today right over the areas that usually get cold season severe weather. Bet you can guess where instability died off.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253118 · Replies: · Views: 3,106

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 05:57 PM


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Likely tornado
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253093 · Replies: · Views: 3,106

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:57 PM


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May be some weak tornadoes in the northern section of the squall
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253072 · Replies: · Views: 3,106

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:39 AM


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Interesting storm mode. Would be very interesting if CAPE wasn't so weak.


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252990 · Replies: · Views: 3,106

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:35 AM


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In other 'news'... I pulled up Chrome on my phone and saw the suggested article was about how the polar vortex is expected to visit us this year. Guess whose forecast it showed?



I'm starting to think he's worse than JB
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252989 · Replies: · Views: 231,599

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:31 AM


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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 17 2017, 08:37 AM) *
I think the models are onto something. laugh.gif

You need to tweet that image & get the word out

Thankfuly with the new 240 character Tweet update, I can get the word out much more efficiently with my plethora of hashtags laugh.gif Watch out Wxtwitter laugh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252988 · Replies: · Views: 231,599

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 17 2017, 01:41 AM


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Well... lock it in... start stocking up on essentials because most of us will freeze to death on 12/22

Insane 1056mb high. No possible way this forecast could go wrong.




850mb temps running up to 21C (35F) colder than average
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252818 · Replies: · Views: 231,599

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 03:19 PM


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CPC's kinda going out on a limb to say basically all of the deep south will likely develop a drought this winter


  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252720 · Replies: · Views: 231,599

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 15 2017, 09:51 AM


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SPC says a marginal or slight risk might be added for Saturday but from the sound of it, it won't be that large.

Oh well, interesting system to track.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252608 · Replies: · Views: 3,106

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 14 2017, 10:17 PM


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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 14 2017, 08:11 PM) *
The solid lines represent the "enhanced" phase of the mode of tropical convection, dashed is the "suppressed". So a purple dashed around the dateline signifies "la Niņa" solid is "el Niņo". Solid black is the enhanced MJO, dashed is the suppressed. Blue is Kelvin waves, red is Rossby. All atmospheric. Hope that isn't confusing.

I was wondering about the same thing, never bothered to ask. That makes sense... thanks!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252586 · Replies: · Views: 231,599

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 14 2017, 07:08 PM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Nov 14 2017, 06:25 PM) *
Biggest factor in that jet is the ridging in the AK region. If we continue to see the -WPO then bets are off on that. Been reading on other threads they believe MJO activity will pick up as we move into December which from the chart you posted a couple days ago of u wind at 850mb that tends to make sense and see something build around 3/4 again. May end up being a pattern reload of some sort since we are still in disconnect between start and trop PV.

Yeah CFS is showing an MJO wave starting. Not sure how accurate the MJO delineation is. But it does make sense that there's something unusual happening because the enhanced trades between 60E and 90E propagates eastward with time, as MJO does.

What's interesting is the last MJO is visible on this map, and that one was characterized by weakened trades/reversed trades. The one coming up, if it verifies, will be characterized by enhanced trades. This would suggest to me that the reaction from this hypothetical MJO would be dissimilar, even opposite of the last one. So maybe we're heading into the "south half" of the MJO circle this time?



If so, watch out for a severe weather event if the MJO passes through phase 2.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252571 · Replies: · Views: 231,599

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 14 2017, 06:19 PM


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FWIW... day 11-15 EPS shows a pattern flip to an extent. Greenland block breaks down, Bering ridge breaks down, negative height anomalies over the Pole, and the Pacific jet pulls together.

I'm suspicious about the timing of this, as it's a big change from the regime we've been in... so we may see this change get pushed back a bit.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252569 · Replies: · Views: 231,599

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 14 2017, 05:54 PM


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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 8 2017, 07:01 PM) *
Right. The placement is similar to what we saw last year. But here, I was responding to Grace who found a bunch of east-based Ninas of varying intensity. I was saying I'd like to look at the OLR of those years, and in a case such as that where you have a bunch of ENSO events of the same base but varying intensity, the position of the greatest OLR anomalies (which should be similar amongst them all if they all behaved as expected (e.g., east-based Nina -> east-based forcing)) is more important than the magnitude of OLR anomalies (which depend upon the strength of the Nina, which was not a part of the selection of ENSO events).

In other words, I still stand by my post regarding the forcing this year behaving like last year so far. The magnitude of the OLR does appear to be a bit weaker but the greatest anomalies are located around the same latitude.

Side point:
What's interesting is, although OLR has been weaker this year, MEI is stronger than last year. The value for AUG-SEP 2017 was -0.449, compared to -0.091 AUG-SEP 2016. Additionally, JUL-AUG 2017 to AUG-SEP 2017 featured a bigger drop (0.027 to -0.449) than JUL-AUG 2016 to AUG-SEP 2016 (0.186 to -0.091).

Regarding MEI... latest bimonthly numbers are in.

September/October 2017: -0.551 (up from -0.449)
September/October 2016: -0.363 (up from -0.091)

It's kind of an unfair comparison because this Nina is so much different from last year. Not only regarding the location of the Nina, but also the fact that we were almost 2 weeks past peak at this time last year. It looks like this Nina still has a solid 15-30+ days left until the Nina starts dying out.

NOAA has MEI ranks. Their definition:
QUOTE
How can one interpret these ranks? Given that there are 67-68 numbers in each column, the lowest
number (1) would denote the strongest La Nina case for that bimonthly season, while the highest
number (67 or 68) would indicate the strongest El Nino case. For instance, in December-January
(DECJAN), the strongest La Nina was recorded in 1974, while the strongest El Nino occurred in 1983.

If we use percentiles (say, the lower and upper 30%iles) to define La Nina and El Nino, respectively, MEI ranks from 1-21
denote strong to weak La Nina conditions,
while 47-67 (48-68) denote weak to strong El Nino conditions. If one uses the quintile definition for (moderate or stronger) ENSO events, MEI ranks from 1-14
would denote La Nina, while 54-67 (55-68) would denote El Nino. Finally, the comparison figures on this
website refer to strong ENSO events, such as might be defined by the top 7 (upper decile)
ranks, such as 1-7 for La Nina, and 61-67 (62-68) for El Nino.


In other words, focusing on Nina... you have a La Nina according to MEI if the rank is between 1-21. You have a moderate Nina if it's between 7-14. You have a strong Nina between 1-7.

September/October 2017 rank is 19.
August/September 2017 rank was 21.
September/October 2016 rank was 24. This was the lowest it got during the entire event.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/rank.html
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252565 · Replies: · Views: 77,888

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 14 2017, 05:54 PM


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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 8 2017, 07:01 PM) *
Right. The placement is similar to what we saw last year. But here, I was responding to Grace who found a bunch of east-based Ninas of varying intensity. I was saying I'd like to look at the OLR of those years, and in a case such as that where you have a bunch of ENSO events of the same base but varying intensity, the position of the greatest OLR anomalies (which should be similar amongst them all if they all behaved as expected (e.g., east-based Nina -> east-based forcing)) is more important than the magnitude of OLR anomalies (which depend upon the strength of the Nina, which was not a part of the selection of ENSO events).

In other words, I still stand by my post regarding the forcing this year behaving like last year so far. The magnitude of the OLR does appear to be a bit weaker but the greatest anomalies are located around the same latitude.

Side point:
What's interesting is, although OLR has been weaker this year, MEI is stronger than last year. The value for AUG-SEP 2017 was -0.449, compared to -0.091 AUG-SEP 2016. Additionally, JUL-AUG 2017 to AUG-SEP 2017 featured a bigger drop (0.027 to -0.449) than JUL-AUG 2016 to AUG-SEP 2016 (0.186 to -0.091).

Regarding MEI... latest bimonthly numbers are in.

September/October 2017: -0.551 (up from -0.449)
September/October 2016: -0.363 (up from -0.091)

It's kind of an unfair comparison because this Nina is so much different from last year. Not only regarding the location of the Nina, but also the fact that we were almost 2 weeks past peak at this time last year. It looks like this Nina still has a solid 15-30+ days left until the Nina starts dying out.

NOAA has MEI ranks. Their definition:
QUOTE
How can one interpret these ranks? Given that there are 67-68 numbers in each column, the lowest
number (1) would denote the strongest La Nina case for that bimonthly season, while the highest
number (67 or 68) would indicate the strongest El Nino case. For instance, in December-January
(DECJAN), the strongest La Nina was recorded in 1974, while the strongest El Nino occurred in 1983.

If we use percentiles (say, the lower and upper 30%iles) to define La Nina and El Nino, respectively, MEI ranks from 1-21
denote strong to weak La Nina conditions,
while 47-67 (48-68) denote weak to strong El Nino conditions. If one uses the quintile definition for (moderate or stronger) ENSO events, MEI ranks from 1-14
would denote La Nina, while 54-67 (55-68) would denote El Nino. Finally, the comparison figures on this
website refer to strong ENSO events, such as might be defined by the top 7 (upper decile)
ranks, such as 1-7 for La Nina, and 61-67 (62-68) for El Nino.


In other words, focusing on Nina... you have a La Nina according to MEI if the rank is between 1-21. You have a moderate Nina if it's between 7-14. You have a strong Nina between 1-7.

September/October 2017 rank is 19.
August/September 2017 rank was 21.
September/October 2016 rank was 24. This was the lowest it got during the entire event.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/rank.html
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252564 · Replies: · Views: 231,599

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 14 2017, 04:59 PM


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Nina looking quite healthy. A lot of cold water in the east ready to spread westward. Wonder how low region 3.4 will go.



  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252559 · Replies: · Views: 77,888

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 14 2017, 02:34 PM


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I anticipate a slight risk being re-added for the lower OV/mid-Mississippi valley. Euro still has <600 CAPE in the lower OV with very strong speed shear. This moves eastward but weakens, down to <200 CAPE at 00z for east Ohio.

Severe threat not looking as 'good', but a strong low that's deepening should still make for something to talk about I guess.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252548 · Replies: · Views: 3,106

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 10:57 PM


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WPC slowed the front down a lot in their latest forecast. GFS is caving to Euro... go figure laugh.gif

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 13 2017, 01:40 PM) *
Nice quadruple point. Also, insanely quick moving cold front



  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252479 · Replies: · Views: 3,106

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 09:53 PM


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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 13 2017, 09:34 PM) *
I'm kind of up in the air about DEC. Originally I thought maybe a mild DEC but cold JAN, but RRWT showing a pretty good stretch of colder weather 2-3 week of DEC.

BSR says there should be a monster ridge nearly the entire month laugh.gif tongue.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252474 · Replies: · Views: 231,599

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 08:15 PM


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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 13 2017, 08:00 PM) *
I'm guessing the weeklies didn't show wall to wall cold today because I have not seen a comment anywhere...not even twitter

Nope.

Control is cold through November 30 and warm through most of December, would definitely be a warm to very warm December. I counted 4 major western troughs leading in the month, and that doesn't include shortwave troughs coming off the west Canadian vortex that takes over on 12/10. There's 1 Arctic blast but it only lasts a few days.

Ensemble mean has a big warming trend starting on the 27th. It has broad positive height anomalies through December, pretty much a zonal flow.

It's worth noting that control has an additional eastern trough dipping down on the 29th while the ensemble mean doesn't.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252467 · Replies: · Views: 231,599

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 07:17 PM


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Yeah I'd hope you're kidding because that would be an "F" in reading comprehension laugh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252455 · Replies: · Views: 231,599

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 03:43 PM


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ILN wrote a book

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be east of the Ohio Valley on Wednesday
morning, as heights fall in advance of a mid-level wave moving into
the Great Lakes. An area of surface low pressure will moving
near/north of Lake Superior on an eastward track, with the mid-level
trough strengthening as it moves across the Great Lakes. A SW-to-NE
cold front attached to the surface low is expected to pass through
the ILN CWA between 15Z-00Z, and while this front may be at its
strongest early in the day on Wednesday, there remains high
confidence (and good model agreement) regarding the timing and
placement of a band of rain moving through the area. PoPs have been
refined and increased to 90 percent with this system, though the
overall arrangement is essentially unchanged from the previous
forecast. Ahead of the front, temperatures should be slightly warmer
than on Tuesday -- with highs in the lower to middle 50s. For the
northern and northwestern CWA, where rain and clouds should be an
impact for most of the day, highs will be a little cooler (upper
40s).

There will be a transition through high pressure on Thursday /
Thursday night, leading into the return to southerly flow on Friday.
The next system, moving in for the Friday-to-Saturday time frame,
remains complicated from a forecast stand point. Thus, it is not a
surprise that model solutions are still not particularly consistent
in its depiction. One piece of information that seems in agreement
among all 12Z runs (GFS/ECMWF/CMC) today is an overall slower
progression of this system. This means that the warm front will not
get into the area until Friday, which removes the formerly-likely
scenario of non-diurnal temperatures leading into Friday morning. It
also delays the start of precipitation until late Friday morning /
Friday afternoon.

To describe the scenario -- there will initially be a surface low
and mid-level trough moving across the plains provinces of Canada,
but a secondary trough is expected to develop ahead of a jet streak
coming across the central plains. This will allow for another
surface low to develop in the middle Mississippi Valley. This low
will move NE into the lower peninsula of Michigan, and the system
will be relatively compact with regards to its frontal structure.
Models remain in decent agreement with regards to the track of this
system, but timing differences remain problematic. However, the
biggest issue is that there are now considerable differences in the
forecast intensity of the surface low -- with both the ECMWF/GFS
coming in with weaker solutions. This has notable implications with
regards to the wind forecast. There also remains uncertainty with
when the cold front actually comes through the region, bringing what
will end up being the best solid chance for precipitation.

As model differences continuing to evolve for an event still on Day
5 / Day 6 in the forecast cycle, this forecast event is an
emblematic example of two principles. For one, keeping PoPs on the
lower side while timing differences are refined remains a good
decision. With slightly better agreement in timing today, PoPs were
increased to likely (60%) for a period on Friday night, but the
variability in model runs suggests a higher probability forecast
remains unrealistic. For two, making specific predictions for wind
intensity and potential hazards is problematic at this distance in
the forecast. While there still remains a signal for the potential
for strong winds -- both with the frontal passage and in the ambient
flow on Saturday afternoon -- the distance out in time and
uncertainty regarding the strength of the surface low do not warrant
inclusion in any public products (HWO etc) as of yet. It should also
be noted that models suggest only extremely small amounts of shallow
instability just ahead of the front, so from a convective
forecasting standpoint, the potential for traditional severe weather
appears quite low. Nonetheless, the concern will still be mentioned
here in the discussion. With a SSW low-level jet of 50-60 knots, and
an intense jet streak at the base of the upper trough, it could
still be a wind headline scenario to some degree.

After the front passes through, the position of the upper trough
could lend itself to some light precipitation continuing over the
northeast sections of the CWA headed later Saturday or maybe into
Sunday -- and depending on temperatures, some snow could mix in.
Otherwise, the rest of the extended period looks fairly uniform --
moderate to strong cold advection under deep-layer northwesterly
flow.


IND

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /Thursday Night Through Monday/...

Issued at 224 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

ECMWF suggests a strong strong system moving through the Ohio
valley and Great lakes on Thursday night through Saturday morning.

A strong warm front will arrive ahead of a strong low pressure
pressure system. This will result in rain chances arriving late on
thursday night into Friday. Much of Friday will be spent within
the warm sector and the ECMWF and GFS suggest favorable
shear...but little in the way of instability and upper support.
However models do suggest ample moisture in the area. Thus we will
continue to go with a wet Friday...and watch for the potential for
severe weather also.


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252432 · Replies: · Views: 3,106

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 03:39 PM


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Euro still has the greater severe threat. 200-1000 j/kg of CAPE from MS/OH river confluence to NW OH with 80-90 MPH westerly winds at 500mb. Much like the 11/5 event, the angle between storm motion and the cold front orientation and movement is roughly 45 degrees. Unlike that event, the CAPE/shear balance is going to be way off so I don't think there'll be much of a window, if any at all, for supercells. Damaging winds will absolutely be the primary threat.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252431 · Replies: · Views: 3,106

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 03:29 PM


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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 13 2017, 11:54 AM) *
I'd think the warm blob SW of U.S. west coast & Mexico will pretty much guarantee a ridge & warmth in the SW...more than likely a perma. That'll be a big key for winter & bodes well for locations east wanting cold. For some reason...I haven't seen that discussed much in winter forecasts so far. It's certainly not going to have an analog to match.

I've seen that blob being mentioned more than the one off the Northeast US which is more anomalous

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252427 · Replies: · Views: 56,268

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 03:18 PM


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I think doubts about the magnitude of this Nina has been wiped away overnight. Those who have been following this ENSO event know the weekly numbers came overnight, as usual. I was expecting the basin to cool a lot from last week, but not this much.

Nino 3.4, the main ENSO index, is now in moderate Nina threshold. This is first time it's been in this threshold since February 1, 2012. Now 3 out of the 4 regions are in moderate Nina threshold, making it less of an east-based Nina right now.

CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
18OCT2017     19.5-1.4     23.9-1.1     25.9-0.8     28.3-0.4
25OCT2017     19.6-1.4     24.2-0.8     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.2
01NOV2017     20.4-0.8     24.4-0.6     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.1
08NOV2017     20.2-1.2     23.8-1.2     25.6-1.1     28.3-0.3


CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
01FEB2012     24.6-0.8     25.2-0.8     25.5-1.2     27.0-1.2



Enhanced trades aren't really going to give up any time soon. This should be good for strengthening the Nina and spreading it westward since the greatest forecasted anomalies happen in and west of Nino region 3.

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