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> June 27-July 5? 2018 MidAtl/NE Heat Wave OBSX, Observations - last minute forecasts
Black05GSR
post Jul 19 2018, 03:53 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Jul 19 2018, 10:42 AM) *
Man, GFS has rain or chance of rain from 7/21 to 8/4!


12z not looking much better



--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5"); 1/30 (2.5"); 2/2 (4"); 2/4 (5"); 2/7 (2"); 2/17 (5.5"); 3/2 (10.5"); 3/7 (9.5"); 3/8 (3"); 3/13 (3"); 3/21 (3"); 4/2 (7")
Total: 70.5" Avg. 49"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7"); 2/17 (6"); 3/7 (6"); 3/13 (1"); 3/21 (11"); 4/2 (6")
Total: 45.75"
Avg. 26"
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bingobobbo
post Jul 19 2018, 05:22 PM
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They claimed that a troughy pattern would be with us next week, but they say that it will be at least 5 degrees ABOVE normal. I knew that Bermuda high was too close for comfort because we will have insufferably muggy conditions for five or six days, with no relief until next Thursday.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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MaineJay
post Jul 19 2018, 07:03 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Jul 19 2018, 01:12 PM) *
Sounds like we still have another 5+ months with AW forums, so not disappearing just yet...

definitely a wet pattern coming...first a coastal potential, and continued troughing with a strong anomalous trough coming in that last week of July. Fun times ahead...



I'll be here until the bitter end. smile.gif I just hope the plug isn't pulled during some big event like a hurricane nearing landfall, or the first big snowstorm of the year. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 19 2018, 07:04 PM


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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STEVE392
post Jul 19 2018, 07:44 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 18 2018, 10:36 PM) *
Outflow is a killer sometimes


how does it kill storms in some area's but not in others? Is it because of the mountainous terrain that stops the outflow or slows it vs more flat terrain that allows the outflow to continue?
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 19 2018, 08:53 PM
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QUOTE(STEVE392 @ Jul 19 2018, 08:44 PM) *
how does it kill storms in some area's but not in others? Is it because of the mountainous terrain that stops the outflow or slows it vs more flat terrain that allows the outflow to continue?


Its an interesting thing outflow chokes the storm out from getting the necessary warmth and moisture it needs to continue to grow. If there is no convergence of air at the location of the outflow more then likely it will just continue on its way and essentially mix out versus other times when you get to outflows clashing or an outflow and a boundary that is set up like a sea breeze will then spawn new storm development. The closer you get to the ocean though there is stabilization, aka marine layer, that halts vertical development and tends to cause storms to weaken.

When you get storms that form say in NW NJ its due to mountainous terrain and air being pushed vertically their but once they get on the move they start a process for the thunderstorm to decay (natural balance) by pushing the outflow ahead of the storm if it equals the speed of the storm it will maintain and continue on but if the cold pool is moving faster than the storm you then have nothing but an outflow and maybe some showers as it rains out.

Mountains do play a role in changing how things progress though but from NW NJ to say NYC area there isnt too much that will block flow more likely it was marine layer influence that caused things to help choke it out and if the storms were dying already its a double whammy.

To add it is hard to have strong motion or forcing aloft in the summer time so we tend to get more pulse storm action but there can be some organized convection. It just depends on its forward progress I think I saw it the other day even in FL they tend to get convection dieing as it nears the coastal regions just a natural thing. Not as often as say up here or near cooler waters but it happens.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jul 19 2018, 08:57 PM


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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STEVE392
post Jul 19 2018, 11:27 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 19 2018, 09:53 PM) *
Its an interesting thing outflow chokes the storm out from getting the necessary warmth and moisture it needs to continue to grow. If there is no convergence of air at the location of the outflow more then likely it will just continue on its way and essentially mix out versus other times when you get to outflows clashing or an outflow and a boundary that is set up like a sea breeze will then spawn new storm development. The closer you get to the ocean though there is stabilization, aka marine layer, that halts vertical development and tends to cause storms to weaken.

When you get storms that form say in NW NJ its due to mountainous terrain and air being pushed vertically their but once they get on the move they start a process for the thunderstorm to decay (natural balance) by pushing the outflow ahead of the storm if it equals the speed of the storm it will maintain and continue on but if the cold pool is moving faster than the storm you then have nothing but an outflow and maybe some showers as it rains out.

Mountains do play a role in changing how things progress though but from NW NJ to say NYC area there isnt too much that will block flow more likely it was marine layer influence that caused things to help choke it out and if the storms were dying already its a double whammy.

To add it is hard to have strong motion or forcing aloft in the summer time so we tend to get more pulse storm action but there can be some organized convection. It just depends on its forward progress I think I saw it the other day even in FL they tend to get convection dieing as it nears the coastal regions just a natural thing. Not as often as say up here or near cooler waters but it happens.


I really appreciate the explanation!! I was just hoping for a good old fashioned storm. Been years since i've seen a good thunderstorm in my area that has made it across NNJ and not died.
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