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> April 27th-May 2nd MidAtl/NE warmth, forecast, discussion, & OBS
MaineJay
post Apr 20 2017, 05:11 PM
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Models are starting to turn up the heat.

PMDEPD
QUOTE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CA, MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW. BY SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGH
ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA AS WELL AS
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. PRECIPITATION NEAR THE CENTRAL US/CANADIAN
BORDER AND GREAT LAKES COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
OF THE MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER 48.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR
CORNERS/GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND
INCREASINGLY THROUGH THE MIDWEST, SOUTHEAST, AND OHIO VALLEY INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY MID NEXT WEEK
. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
TAKE UP INCREASING REAL ESTATE WITH TIME WEST OF 80W, STARTING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ROTH


GEFS days 6-10
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EPS
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CPC analogs days 6-10
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This post has been edited by MaineJay: May 2 2017, 06:15 AM


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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Undertakerson
post Apr 21 2017, 04:23 AM
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I stopped in to see if anyone was going to mention this potential. After having viewed the past couple runs of the Euro (in particular), I see those +20 c. values at H8.5 and thought - "looks toasty".

Here is what 00z Euro is advertising.

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Undertakerson
post Apr 21 2017, 04:47 AM
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...
QUOTE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CA, MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PLUS THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND
DIVERGENCE MAXIMA ALOFT NEAR THE CA/OR BORDER. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE HIGH NEAR THE CIRCULATION IN THE CAROLINAS/COASTAL
WATERS ON DAY 3...EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST...SNOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE RANGES OF WA/OR AND FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF ID/WY/CO. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS IN THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH. RAINFALL
BECOMES WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY IN THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SEE THE SEVERAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR A DIAGNOSIS OF
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

TEMPS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE 30 YEAR MEAN ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD
FROM THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS ON DAY 3 EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY 4, AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST,
OHIO VALLEY, TN VALLEY...APPALACHIANS...AND DEEP SOUTH IN THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE WARMTH REACHES THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES NEXT FRI 28 APR AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM AND MORE SUN RETURNS
. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE MID TO
LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REMAINS
COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN.

PETERSEN
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NorEaster07
post Apr 21 2017, 05:20 AM
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People think Easter was bad only 1 day worth in the 80s...

Euro and others have multiple days in the 80s next week. SICK. Top 10, 5 record April 2017 most likely if this happens.

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NorEaster07
post Apr 21 2017, 06:32 AM
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Euro00z for Hartford (BDL)

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BDL LAT= 41.93 LON= -72.68 ELE= 180

00Z APR21
2 M SFC SFC 850 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP DEW PRS TMP RHU QPF HGT 500
(F) (F) (MB) (F) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
THU 00Z 27-APR 53.2 52.3 1008 52.9 34 0.00 570 563
THU 06Z 27-APR 48.7 48.5 1010 51.5 44 0.00 570 562
THU 12Z 27-APR 53.6 52.3 1012 52.9 53 0.00 572 562
THU 18Z 27-APR 75.8 59.6 1010 57.4 80 0.00 575 566
FRI 00Z 28-APR 63.4 58.6 1012 57.8 93 0.00 577 567
FRI 06Z 28-APR 57.3 56.0 1014 58.4 67 0.00 580 568
FRI 12Z 28-APR 61.6 58.8 1018 59.0 16 0.00 583 568
FRI 18Z 28-APR 80.6 64.5 1018 62.1 18 0.00 586 570
SAT 00Z 29-APR 62.9 59.9 1019 62.8 6 0.00 587 571
SAT 06Z 29-APR 54.7 54.2 1022 60.5 2 0.00 587 569
SAT 12Z 29-APR 56.2 54.3 1023 62.7 62 0.00 588 569
SAT 18Z 29-APR 79.6 63.6 1021 63.5 57 0.00 589 571
SUN 00Z 30-APR 66.6 62.5 1021 64.4 50 0.00 590 572
SUN 06Z 30-APR 61.3 59.3 1019 66.1 40 0.00 589 572
SUN 12Z 30-APR 68.6 63.6 1019 67.1 52 0.00 588 571
SUN 18Z 30-APR 88.0 66.6 1016 67.7 45 0.00 587 574
MON 00Z 01-MAY 71.1 64.1 1014 69.4 13 0.00 586 574
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KENNYP2339
post Apr 21 2017, 06:32 AM
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Beautiful !!!! bring on the warmth, get them stripers running up the rivers
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LUCC
post Apr 21 2017, 12:10 PM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Apr 21 2017, 07:32 AM) *
Beautiful !!!! bring on the warmth, get them stripers running up the rivers

cool.gif


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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NorEaster07
post Apr 21 2017, 12:40 PM
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GFS12z not buying it. No 80s north of DC. Center of Ridge stays in Southeast as opposed to Northeast with Euro.


Attached Image



Here's Friday max. Heat stays Ohio Valley and Southern Mid Atlantic.


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NorEaster07
post Apr 21 2017, 02:33 PM
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Euro 12z continues its Torch591





Mid Level temp anomaly off the charts.

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stretchct
post Apr 21 2017, 02:59 PM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Apr 21 2017, 07:32 AM) *
Beautiful !!!! bring on the warmth, get them stripers running up the rivers

smile.gif


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis




First measurable
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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STEVE392
post Apr 21 2017, 03:54 PM
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I could finally retire away my hoodie. One day its shorts and tshirt, next is putting on the hoodie to stay warm.
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MaineJay
post Apr 21 2017, 04:05 PM
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This was on NWS Caribou Twitter yesterday

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--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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Undertakerson
post Apr 21 2017, 04:15 PM
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CTP afternoon update:

QUOTE
Thursday into Saturday the 850 hPa temperatures will be well
above normal, mainly in the 14 to 16C range
and we will be on
the western edge of a rather impressive early season subtropical
ridge. The GEFS and GEFSBC show a closed 5880 m ridge along the
VA/NC/SC coast with +2 sigma height anomalies by Fri-Sat
.

Thus Thursday through at least Saturday should be very warm and
humid. We should have several days with high temperatures well
into the 80s. Any precipitation after Wednesday will likely be
in a more summer-like atmosphere so added thunder in all
forecasts beyond Wednesday
.

The ridge will likely continue retrograding. If the NEAFSBC and
GEFSBC are correct we could be looking at our first enduring
period of warm weather from this coming thursday into the
following week.


My Fb post from this morning

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MaineJay
post Apr 21 2017, 04:19 PM
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GYX, can never rule out getting backdoored.

QUOTE
High pressure builds in on Monday as the cold front settles over
southern New England. The result should be a nice day - a good
amount of sunshine with temperatures in the 60s. The high
continues to nose in from the northeast Monday night and
Tuesday. However, things look to quickly change during the day
Tuesday as northern and southern stream short wave troughs team
up and move toward New England. As long as current model progs
are close to reality, we're looking at rain developing from S to
N Tuesday which then continues into Wednesday. Better conditions
are possible Thursday and Friday as the system moves away, but
current indications are that a cool easterly SFC flow may remain
in place.


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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MD Blue Ridge
post Apr 21 2017, 08:41 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Apr 21 2017, 05:15 PM) *
CTP afternoon update:
My Fb post from this morning

Attached Image

smile.gif


Matching CTP...it's hard to watch you throw any remaining credibility out the window. laugh.gif


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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Undertakerson
post Apr 22 2017, 04:46 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Apr 21 2017, 09:41 PM) *
Matching CTP...it's hard to watch you throw any remaining credibility out the window. laugh.gif

laugh.gif laugh.gif

Wait!... I have credibility? huh.gif Whodaguessed?
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NorEaster07
post Apr 22 2017, 05:11 AM
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Euro00z backed off the intensity of the heat. No 80s north of KY and Virginias. (only pockets). Still, 70s is warm
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Undertakerson
post Apr 22 2017, 05:44 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 22 2017, 06:11 AM) *
Euro00z backed off the intensity of the heat. No 80s north of KY and Virginias. (only pockets). Still, 70s is warm

Noticed that as well. However, as WPC points out, there is uncertainty with the cyclone in the Mid West and its associated front - so they are riding an ensemble means outlook ATTM (which is always prudent in the LR anyway)

QUOTE
DIFFERENCES DEVELOP STARTING THU WITH THE TIMING OF LOWS ALONG THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVES OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC APPROACHING
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALSO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE WAVES
TRAVERSING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.

THE 12Z CANADIAN FIT A BIT BETTER WITH THE ECMWF AND GEFS
MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THU 27 AND FRI 28 APR. A BLEND OF THE 18Z
GFS/GEFS AND 12Z GFS/ECMWF/ECENS MEAN WAS A GOOD STARTING POINT
THROUGH THURSDAY 27 APR. THEREAFTER, THE GFS RUNS GO ASTRAY FROM
THE OTHER SOLUTIONS SO ARE CONSIDERED LOW PROBABILITY. THE 12Z
CANADIAN WAS BLENDED WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
18Z GEFS MEAN...AS THE CANADIAN GLOBAL CLUSTERED WELL WITH THE
ECMWF MEAN LOW POSITION NEXT FRI-SAT IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. ON SAT 29 APR..T.HE ECMWF AND CANADIAN AND GFS ALL
HAVE ANOTHER SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE MOVE NORTHEAST...BUT EACH HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION. WITH THE MEANS AGREEING BETTER...MORE
WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND GEFS MEANS
. THE MEANS
MAY NOT BE THE PERFECT SOLUTION EITHER IF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE
CORRECT IN DEPICTING A STRONGER CYCLONE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE.
CONSEQUENTLY CONFIDENCE FOR THE CENTRAL US CYCLONE
POSITION AND INTENSITY NEXT SAT 29 APR IS BELOW AVERAGE
.

QUOTE
TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
LEAD FRONT. MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL SEE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK AFTER THE COASTAL LOW
DEPARTS. RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY NEXT
WEEKEND...STARTING OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
TEXAS...WHERE THE FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGHS OF THE SEASON ARE
FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS THEN EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST....TN VALLEY...AND UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD REMAIN COOLER
THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

Since the S/W flow would (as I see it) be the genesis region of most of the warmth, the central US storm and front has the greater influence. So, naturally, its exact orientation will be key to the forecast.
Attached Image


http://cms.met.psu.edu/WeatherWorld/12day.html
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NorEaster07
post Apr 22 2017, 10:25 AM
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NorEaster07
post Apr 22 2017, 10:42 AM
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Mid April 2016 had an Omega block pattern for days providing dry and heat. Then it flipped and the Omega block gave the East a trough for beginning of May providing clouds, cool, and precip days.


Paulie P's blog yesterday...

QUOTE
"Its amazing how an Omega ridge can completely blow up a pattern and create some extremes across an area. For the end of April we will get to see that in action, as an Omega Block builds over the southeastern United States rather rapidly on the 28th.

The first and most obvious impact will be some significant heat building into the eastern U.S. While the modeling has backed off on the strength of the ridging since yesterday, it should still be a warm end of the month for anyone located from Mississippi on north and east of the Appalachians. The biggest departures will be right where you expect, just east of the peak of the ridge, from the Virginias to Quebec. While records looked threatened yesterday, the tamer model solutions today would indicate records will be a bit out of reach (although any locations with “low hanging fruit”) still stand a chance.

Whenever you have an Omega Block, troughs are allowed to deepen down and upstream, resulting in the pattern turning much more dynamic and slowing down. While the East is warming up, a large trough will build into the western U.S., pushing shortwaves into the ridge and resulting in a series of low pressure systems delivering round after round of severe weather.

The Arklatex region looks to be the hardest hit from the sequence of coming storms. Gulf moisture is very close to the region and with Gulf SST temperatures running so much above normal, there should be no shortage of “juicy” air for storm systems to work with."
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