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> February 20-22 Southern US/OV Severe Weather, Possibility (6-10 days): long-range forecasts
ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 14 2018, 07:08 PM
Post #1




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The SPC has mentioned severe potential from the southern Plains to the OV. CIPS analogs (GFS and GEFS) show an active severe weather pattern is ahead.

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern will likely begin to amplify late D5/Sunday as a
strong shortwave trough digs southward through the Pacific Northwest
and into the Great Basin. Just how far south the shortwave travels
before ejecting northeastward is in question, with the amplification
likely modified by the strength of the subtropical ridging
downstream and/or the strength of jet throughout its western
periphery. At the same time, a surface low, attendant to a subtle
shortwave trough moving through the southwesterly flow aloft, will
likely move towards the Upper Great Lakes as an associated cold
front sweeps across the Plains.

Combination of increasing southwesterly flow aloft downstream of the
deepening upper trough, forcing for ascent provided by the cold
front, and a modestly moist and unstable airmass could support
severe thunderstorms early next week, particularly from east TX into
the lower OH Valley. However, forecast uncertainty currently remains
too high to outlook any areas at this time.





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 1 (Last: 2/15/18)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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WestLafayette62
post Feb 14 2018, 07:28 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: West Lafayette, IN
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Sounds like flooding will be an issue too.


--------------------
If I had 1 wish, I'd wish for more wishes. And Tons of snow.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 15 2018, 03:05 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 21,449
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Watching OK/Arkansas/eastern TX for severe weather. Would be our first dryline event of the year.







--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 1 (Last: 2/15/18)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 02:50 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,449
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





He also failed to mention the VBV profile which could destroy the supercell/tornado threat. Severe threat looking a bit up in the air, though I'd say there's potential for at least a marginal risk



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Today, 02:50 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 1 (Last: 2/15/18)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
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