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> February 24-26, 2017 MidAtl/NE Storm, Long Range [8-15 Days Out] FORECAST
Undertakerson
post Today, 09:25 AM
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I made a trend GIF of the GFS para - past 8 runs. (Para, IIRC, scores slightly better than the Operational GFS)


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Seems to be trending back closer towards the original idea. Not that it will ever go back there, just that no true solution jumps out as the actual outcome.

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RobB
post Today, 09:57 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 19 2017, 09:25 AM) *
I made a trend GIF of the GFS para - past 8 runs. (Para, IIRC, scores slightly better than the Operational GFS)


Attached Image


Seems to be trending back closer towards the original idea. Not that it will ever go back there, just that no true solution jumps out as the actual outcome.



At least lately, the GFS scores a bit better looking at 5 day northern hemisphere SLP wise...CONUS wise, I wish we had those scores...
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Today, 11:05 AM
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By the time this thaw is all said and done I'd bet money on their being ZERO snowpack across the entire state of PA. Aside from big snow piles all my snowpack will be gone by today. I was optimistic about these systems but it's becoming apparent they will most likely have that classic La Niņa glc track

This post has been edited by PA ROAD DAWG: Today, 11:06 AM
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MaineJay
post Today, 11:13 AM
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Might not even be a storm in a couple days, looking less amplified every run.


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--------------------
If you only search for the perfect dendrite, you might just miss on the panoply of frozen precip.

MJ SN-o-meter. Each dash represents 1", 84 in total for 7', my average

//////////////////////////////////////////
//////////////////////////////////////////

***bonus snow***
/////////////
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plowxpress
post Today, 11:40 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 18 2017, 05:12 PM) *
Ugh. Looks yucky


What's the difference, even when it's looked good we haven't gotten much either. At this point maybe reverse psychology will work laugh.gif
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Undertakerson
post Today, 11:45 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 19 2017, 11:13 AM) *
Might not even be a storm in a couple days, looking less amplified every run.


Attached Image

A full 7mb weaker this run and more south east with the track. (than 6z )

CMC still stronger than GFS, but slower and also weaker than its previous version (but not as much less than the 00z CMC) - although the CMC also, like the UKIE, places a 1033mb (or so) surface HP in E Canada (hr126). GFS refuses to place a high there, for now.

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Undertakerson
post Today, 11:48 AM
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Hmm

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12z GFS comparison not yet available, have to compare to 6z GFS

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Remember the CPE site (moe.met) UK 00z had it cutting into Lake Michigan, not Erie.

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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Today, 11:52 AM
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RobB
post Today, 11:58 AM
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UT..I love the revolving avatar pics you are providing smile.gif
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Undertakerson
post Today, 12:32 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Feb 19 2017, 11:58 AM) *
UT..I love the revolving avatar pics you are providing smile.gif

Thanks Rob. Can you tell that I get bored easily? tongue.gif
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Today, 01:28 PM
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This seems to change frequently, but it changed for the worse. Whenever I see the west pummeled and covered with snow it usually means less if any snow on the east coast. This it for winter ??
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RobB
post Today, 01:42 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 19 2017, 12:32 PM) *
Thanks Rob. Can you tell that I get bored easily? tongue.gif



laugh.gif The creative juices flow with boredom!! smile.gif
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stilko4
post Today, 02:56 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 19 2017, 01:28 PM) *
This seems to change frequently, but it changed for the worse. Whenever I see the west pummeled and covered with snow it usually means less if any snow on the east coast. This it for winter ??

I'd say so... we missed the storm last week which wouldve been a big last hurrah, and now that it's in the 60s I think most are over this pathetic winter.
With that said, in a bad pattern, some areas of li got 30", most from just 2 storms (11" and 14") and had a blizzard.

Maybe next yr well all get that 2-3 footer from a miller A.


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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