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> Feb. 24th-28th West/California Low Pressure...Pacific jet relentless, Short Term: (1-3 days) Forecasts and OBS...We're singing the same
idecline
post Feb 1 2017, 09:40 PM
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Low pressure swirling off the west coast will apparently linger for days bringing wave after wave of rain and winds into the West...
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48hr OPC agrees
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and OPC 96hr says :
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and with a flattened ridge more energy is gearing up to the West...

This post has been edited by idecline: Feb 21 2017, 06:16 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
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idecline
post Feb 7 2017, 07:43 PM
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rolleyes.gif Dates updated to show next in a series of storms rolling across the Pacific into the West.

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Another storm in a series of wet, windy storms is poised to rumble across California...

There has been heavy rain, some strong winds and lots of localized flooding and even a landslide that has closed State Rt.17 over the Santa Cruz Mountains...the n=North Bay Area has been especially hard hit as stream rise and the Napa River is approaching flood stage...some areas are so saturated that further slides can occur...the next storm will not help in regards to overtopping reservoirs and localized and small stream flooding...

48hr OPC shows the energy being thrown into California and Oregon as multiple troughs (waves) get ready to pinwheel through the area...

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It appears the low will send several surges through until Friday...with a potential large blocking ridge developing soon after Friday and holding for several days...(hopefully) to let the water runoff and areas to dry out...

96hr OPC shows

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This shows the ridge building in for a decent duration allowing the State to dry out as the next low gets jettisoned over the ridge into Western Canada and across the Northern tier of the CONUS...

WPC shows ridging across entire West until at least next Tuesday...
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Sunny skies ahead... unsure.gif



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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 7 2017, 07:49 PM
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QPF's for the Days 1-3... blink.gif

Attached Image


After the stormy weather, residual showers may linger in the West...with a lot of moisture and low winds...


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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Weatherjunkie
post Feb 7 2017, 09:08 PM
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After this weekend could be back to extended period of dry weather in Cali and Nevada. Models like a cut-off so we could be looking at some shower activity for the desert SW in the 4-7 day range. Fairly active period follows afterward but it's difficult to say just how far south the wet weather can extend. Best bet is Northern most locations of Cali to Pac NW in the 7-10 day window.


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The reason I talk to myself is that I am the only one whose answers I accept~ George Carlin

To be or not to be is not a question of compromise. Either you be or you don't be ~ Golda Meir

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Why is the rum gone? ~ Captain Jack Sparrow
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FrostFuzz
post Feb 8 2017, 10:39 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Feb 7 2017, 06:08 PM) *
After this weekend could be back to extended period of dry weather in Cali and Nevada. Models like a cut-off so we could be looking at some shower activity for the desert SW in the 4-7 day range. Fairly active period follows afterward but it's difficult to say just how far south the wet weather can extend. Best bet is Northern most locations of Cali to Pac NW in the 7-10 day window.


I confess I haven't been paying particularly close attention recently but looking now the upcoming period does look pretty wet, aside from a break early next week as you mentioned. This year models seem to be trending wetter as we have gotten closer to events so I am reasonably optimistic we will see some action even down here in southern California.

As for the system forecast over the next few days it doesn't look like a deluge but should add to the already solid totals so far this year. Will keep an eye on it as it approaches to see if things change but for now anticipating about a quarter of an inch in my area.


--------------------
My Precip Total '16-'17: 13.73"


'13-'14: 4.36"
'14-'15: 6.24"
'15-'16: 7.97"

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idecline
post Feb 10 2017, 08:22 PM
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Accuweather Water Vapor
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Looks like Southern California is in for another day of rain, as the trough(s) move through...

48hr OPC (500mb upper air)shows lingering effects with a smaller ridge than prognosticated...
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OPC 96hr shows ridge begginning to break down as second low will rotate around the firtst 'storm' which puts a big 'dent' in the ridge...
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Then another round of consistent 'zonal flow'...with only the amount of tropical air mixing in and where the storm track focuses...(if the early season is any help...this round may shift even further south...with corresponding severe weather reemerging over lower Mississippi Valley by late next week (as BSR,RRWT and others have said...)

Line 'em up!
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See you soon with the new 'wet' reports from California... dry.gif



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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 13 2017, 08:02 PM
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Thread date updated to indicate 'new' series of storms will ride into the West on a 'zonal' jet stream...
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The 'strong' HP over the West and Great Basin have again failed in their duties rolleyes.gif

We had over-running cloudcover beginning mid-day which to me was a sign of the 'dirty' ridge breaking down sooner than was originally forecast...
48hr OPC surface
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With a 'parent' low again forming in the Aleutians...this will send what looks like two storms in the West in the next few days...with perhaps a short break...and then another round of storms next week...

Here is 96hr OPC upper air(500mb)
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...with the aim right towards the West Coast...a series of large Extratropical storms will ride along the jet
OPC 96hr surface
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more info as the timing becomes clearer in a day or so...

Is the West prepared for another series of wet storms?

(and into March and April if there is not a significant pattern change...RRWT? or Bering Sea?)
huh.gif



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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 14 2017, 08:19 PM
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Already raining in Seattle...next storm on weekend may be even more potent for California

QPF's 7 day:

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QUOTE
Southern California to face significant impacts late week

The second storm from Friday to Saturday will track much farther south compared to the midweek storm.

"The storm from Friday to Saturday has the potential to be the biggest of the winter in terms of rainfall and impact to much of Southern California," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Jim Andrews.
Most areas from the Los Angeles basin to San Diego can expect 3 to 6 inches of rain to fall. Even higher rainfall amounts are forecast along the west- and south-facing slopes of the Transverse ranges and Sierra Nevada. Rainfall in this region can range from 6 to 12 inches from the single storm at the end of the week.


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--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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KSpring1
post Feb 16 2017, 10:16 PM
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As of last week I read that the Tahoe-Truckee region has had 12-15 feet of snow so far (not including what's fallen this past week-today-tmrw etc).



When I hear about the back-to-back-to-back never-ending storms -- like the major atmospheric river that hit in January and what may be coming in these next days, it always makes me think of the DONNER PARTY!!!


Whereas now everyone is so happy to measure up the ever-growing snowpack and the skiers are thrilled, I think so often about what it was like for those people who saw the first flakes fly, not knowing what was coming for them...

Can you imagine trying to survive 12-15 feet of snow that just encases your wagons, animals, shelters. How did they find wood to burn? If I remember correctly some of the group spent at least the first major snowstorm in a kind of tent or something. Thankfully they found those abandoned cabins. But, really 12-15 feet of snow on any shelter.... it's just unthinkable!


Anyone else think about the Donner Party in years such as this? ....






(and I feel like adding for the ones who didn't make it out ~ may they continue to rest in peace)










--------------------
*************
82 degrees in Richmond - Feb 12

*************
We are deep into Solar Spring :-)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
February blooming: crocuses (2/4), flowering trees(2/15), maple trees(2/18), daffodils, hyacinths(2/24). forsythia(2/24)
When the heck are those first hickory buds going to sprout??!! ..... (I swore it'd be in Feb ... still waiting!!)
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idecline
post Feb 18 2017, 05:55 PM
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On Thursday I was sitting outside getting sun at about 68-70F degrees...then Friday we had winds from the south up to 40mph with gusts (est.) to 60-65mph, heavy rain and generally miserable weather.

Southern California got the worst of this second 'wave' and had numerous downed tress, localized flooding, and some mud and debris flows...
from AccuWeather story on Southern California storm...(edited by idee)
QUOTE
Southern California bore the brunt of the latest storm to blast into the western United States as the region is now cleaning up from flooding, mudslides, sinkholes and downed trees.
This storm, one of the biggest storms in years to target the region, bombarded Southern California with heavy rain and gusty winds on Friday into Friday night.
Widespread rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches were measured in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.
"The airport at Santa Barbara measured 4.16 inches alone on Friday, shattering the day's previous rainfall record of 2.08 inches from 1980," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski said. "Friday was also Santa Barbara's wettest day since March 20, 2011."
Downtown Los Angeles received slightly more than 2 inches of rain from the storm, guaranteeing the city will experience its first above-normal winter rainfall (December to February) since the winter spanning 2010-2011.


Now the jet is again aimed at the West Coast...with several more waves until midweek...
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A strong Pacific jet is again sending storms into the West...after a lull for Saturday and early Sunday another strong system will roll through late Sunday into President's Day.
OPC 48hr shows:
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This shows the edge of the next front beginning to make landfall, with the strong low heading north into Washington State...several 'waves' look to 'pinwheel' around this low as it moves north then northwest.
This should keep rain in the picture through Wed./Thu. A strong low in the western Pacific looks to be heading for the Bering Sea...which should finally translate to HP building along the West Coast late week.
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


This shows another 'wave' forming in the wake of the next storm(s) to come ashore on Tue. into Wed.

Unfortunately the upper air OPC(96hr 500mb) map doesn't seem to want to have a High Pressure anywhere across the entire Pacific Ocean region... huh.gif
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Umm...Fair weather ahead... unsure.gif



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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 18 2017, 06:06 PM
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Here's a QPF map for people who like maps of estimated rainfall...

Attached Image


Are we convinced yet? rolleyes.gif

This has been an exceptional year for California rainfall and snowpack...it takes me back to the 1960's and '70's in the Bay Area...
Hopefully we do get a good break of drying out weather...and perhaps a little more 'amplification' in the jet as Spring approaches...too many more RRWT storms could put a lot of pressure on already saturated situation...
We have many years that have had generous March and April rainfall totals...but certainly the jet moving back north when the January storm 'pattern' is recycled by the RRWT in March would not be a terrible thing.



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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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FrostFuzz
post Feb 18 2017, 07:40 PM
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Did very well with this last storm. I got 1.76" as of right now, and I may or may not see more rainfall later today. The sig has been updated as well.


--------------------
My Precip Total '16-'17: 13.73"


'13-'14: 4.36"
'14-'15: 6.24"
'15-'16: 7.97"

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idecline
post Feb 21 2017, 06:02 PM
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Torrential rains all day Monday...with gusty winds...some (est.) over 50 mph.

San Jose is now twice the average rainfall...with records set yesterday...flooding, slides, downed trees.

QUOTE
The city of San Jose said Monday night it was monitoring flood levels along Coyote, Arroyo and Ross Creeks. Many road closures were reported along the area. Evacuation centers were opened for those who chose to voluntarily evacuate their homes on low-lying areas near Coyote Creek.

In the town of Morgan Hill, water flowed onto the spillway at the Anderson Dam for the first time in 11 years.
Thousands were left without power, and lengthy flight delays were reported at San Francisco International Airport. At one point early Monday, delays were over three hours.
The international airports both in San Francisco and San Jose set new daily records for rainfall on Monday. San Francisco received 2.16 inches of rain, surpassing the 1980 record of 1.06 inches. San Jose received 1.87 inches of rain, beating the more than 100-year-old record of 0.89 inches in 1914.
edited from AccuWeather story...
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...fornia/70000918
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Spillway at Anderson Reservoir in Morgan Hill...runs to Coyote Creek north through San Jose and Milpitas.

More rain starting next weekend...after a "dry" late week... dry.gif
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QPF's for the next 7 days... huh.gif
[attachment=318705:p168i.gif]

This post has been edited by idecline: Feb 21 2017, 06:05 PM
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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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jsy
post Feb 22 2017, 09:41 AM
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Hey Guys, just curious what Im looking at here. Trying to learn as much as possible, but to me it looks like there are 2 very large low pressure systems coming off Japan. Whats the impact of these if they hit the west coast?

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