 Mar 1-3 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Cogitation: Long Range (8-15 Days Out (Forecasts) |
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 Feb 27 2013, 08:48 AM
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#461
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Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 29,280 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491  |
Over the last 2 winters, this seemingly favorable setup played the role of a false signal... every time we had a strong, deep trough in the East and a ridge in the west during the winter months (early November excluded), a coastal ended up developing a little too far east.
January 2012:
February 2012:
February 2013:
-------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Feb 27 2013, 11:13 AM
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#462
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,915 Joined: 19-August 09 From: nova scotia cape breton Member No.: 18,972 |
Shes even to far east for us grr
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Feb 27 2013, 04:46 PM
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#463
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,121 Joined: 26-December 08 From: New Tripoli, PA Member No.: 16,666 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Feb 27 2013, 08:48 AM)  Over the last 2 winters, this seemingly favorable setup played the role of a false signal... every time we had a strong, deep trough in the East and a ridge in the west during the winter months (early November excluded), a coastal ended up developing a little too far east.
January 2012:
February 2012:
February 2013:
Yep. I say we nuke the Pacific. You in? |
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Feb 27 2013, 05:12 PM
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#464
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 746 Joined: 28-August 10 From: Boston, MA Member No.: 23,496 |
Nothing again on the GFS, pretty sure this threat is dead.
-------------------- 2012-13: 63.4"
Departure from average to date: -+21.2" Departure from seasonal average (44"): +19.5" (updated: 4/04/13) Past winters: 2012-13: 63.4" (+19.5" from average) 2011-12: 9.3" (-34.6" from average) 2010-11: 81" (+37.1" from average) |
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Feb 27 2013, 05:33 PM
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#465
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,604 Joined: 24-January 09 From: Harwich, MA Member No.: 17,084 |
This threat is not the coastal storm, its the large pinwheeling 500mb low moving south of SNE producing a norlun trough or precip enhancement as the surface low moves out to the east. Unless i'm wrong and thats with the 27-28th threat, but I'm not wrong, because this norlun like trough event is actually for the 1st and 2nd of March.
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Feb 27 2013, 11:01 PM
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#466
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,280 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(PSUWeatherNewbie @ Feb 27 2013, 05:33 PM) This threat is not the coastal storm, its the large pinwheeling 500mb low moving south of SNE producing a norlun trough or precip enhancement as the surface low moves out to the east. Unless i'm wrong and thats with the 27-28th threat, but I'm not wrong, because this norlun like trough event is actually for the 1st and 2nd of March. The norlun trough you mentioned technically is a part of the same system from the 27-28th as the 500mb low continues to move out. This thread was for another originally modeled coastal storm on 3/3-4 but is pretty much dead now that it's clear it's not happening, although I guess it can be used for the norlun trough as it falls during the same time frame. This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Feb 27 2013, 11:02 PM -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Feb 28 2013, 01:56 PM
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#467
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,274 Joined: 23-March 08 From: Millersville, PA Member No.: 14,460 |
Again this was the time period i said we would have our best chance at possibly seeing a coastal develop but unfortunately cold will take its place. After this there really is not anything to exciting. May have a storm possibility as the cold air moves out but all i can say is with a waning AO towards neutral a PNA ridge collapsing not much is favoring keeping the chances up. NAO is there but that can only do so much. Instead of getting blasted with warmth gradual warm up seems to be the likely. I think after this weekend of cold I would like to say spring has begun to enter into the region, unless something drastic changes.
-------------------- Tylor
Aspiring Meteorologist, Now living at millersville university Computer models and other important sites: http://southeastpaweather.blogspot.com/ Average: 23" 2008-2009 34" 148% of normal 2009-2010 74" 322% of normal 2010-2011 42" 183% of normal Coldest Temp: 10 Average: 40.1" Rainfall...32.10" (may be off by 1-2") well above average this year... Havent updated since Late july! |
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Mar 3 2013, 03:43 AM
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#468
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,433 Joined: 13-January 10 From: Bronx,NY Member No.: 20,929 |
Not sure if connected to this storm but I got a 90 minute session of light snow earlier.
 Got a coating on cars. -------------------- There is no such thing as boring weather.
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Mar 4 2013, 04:25 PM
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#469
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 746 Joined: 28-August 10 From: Boston, MA Member No.: 23,496 |
There was no OBS thread for today, but some flurries falling here in BOS
-------------------- 2012-13: 63.4"
Departure from average to date: -+21.2" Departure from seasonal average (44"): +19.5" (updated: 4/04/13) Past winters: 2012-13: 63.4" (+19.5" from average) 2011-12: 9.3" (-34.6" from average) 2010-11: 81" (+37.1" from average) |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 25th May 2013 - 02:48 AM |