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> February 6-8 Southern US Tornado Outbreak, Medium Range: 4-8 Day Forecasts
ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 1 2017, 12:22 AM
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Models are finally converging on yet another severe weather threat for the Southern US; from Oklahoma to Alabama, and maybe up to Missouri and Ohio. Upper 50 to lower 60 dew points are expected to advect from the Gulf up to Missouri and Tennessee with a strong low and mid-level jet above it. Speed and directional shear will be very strong across the warm sector.

Normally these kinds of dew points aren't sufficient for a severe weather thread... the real player in this is the lapse rates. GFS and Euro have steep lapse rates moving out of the deserts, into the Mississippi valley region. The thing about tonight's GFS is that it's capped on Feb 6 in Oklahoma, then the system produces excessive clouds/rain in the warm sector, which weakens the lapse rates and decreases the temperature. However, this is a big change from past runs so this one might be an outlier.

Euro is even scarier than GFS. It has dew points in the 60's all the way up to SE Iowa. It has south-central Iowa reaching 2000+ CAPE, even though they have a dew point of 58 and surface temp of 64.

I tracked the late January tornado outbreak from day 6, and one thing that continually impressed me was the steep lapse rates being shown not only on Euro, but the GFS too!

Seeing a similar kind of thing here, too. The models are showing steep mid-level lapse rates, and with the GFS's tendency to underestimate moisture return, I think this event has more potential than GFS is hinting at. That's what happened with the tornado outbreak... it looked impressive, eerily shared similar characteristics to this event (i.e., soundings)... but it didn't look like an event that would end up being the 3rd largest winter tornado outbreak on record.

With all this said, I don't mean to hype this event. There's no reason to panic or to believe we'll see anything like we did in late January. Some things look similar, but there's plenty of time for things to change. It's not guaranteed that the dew points will end up being higher than what GFS is showing... could be lower if the system comes east faster. However... ingredients do seem to be coming together for another severe weather event. The lapse rates, the moisture advection, and the vertical and speed shear...

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 9 2017, 05:10 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 1 2017, 01:42 AM
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Euro has mid-60 dew points in the Dallas metro area, leading to 2000+ CAPE.

By day 2, the mid-60 dew points push into Arkansas... encompassing the entire state. Mid-50 dew points up into Evansville, IN and then SW OH.

2000+ CAPE in Arkansas at 18z on the 7th, 6 hours later the 2000+ CAPE pushes along and just east of the Mississippi. Also some 1000-1500 CAPE showing up in SW IN.

Low pressure is sitting in Southern Wisconsin

All-in-all, would be a severe weather outbreak from Louisiana to SW IN... maybe up to Indianapolis.

Along with the implied steep lapse rate (how else can you get 1500 CAPE with upper 50 dew points), vertical and speed shear is also very strong in the warm sector in this run.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 1 2017, 01:44 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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jdrenken
post Feb 1 2017, 03:02 AM
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BSR had this for the 8th back on the 20th of January.


and the updated next day 21st of January.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 1 2017, 01:38 PM
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GFS continues to not be very impressive. Still enough for severe weather, but nowhere near Euro. Latest Euro has ~2700 CAPE with mid-60 dew points at 18z in Arkansas with a 994mb low right on the AR/MO border. 6 hours later, 2000+ CAPE moves just east of the Mississippi.

Severe weather and tornadoes likely from Louisiana to Kentucky.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 1 2017, 01:41 PM
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Strong jet streak pushing into the region on GFS and Euro. The big difference between the two models is moisture and its affect on the lapse rates




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 1 2017, 02:46 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 1 2017, 07:01 PM
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GEFS picking up on a severe threat along the Gulf coast




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 1 2017, 11:17 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 1 2017, 11:24 PM
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GFS is still not moving toward Euro with respect to the severe threat.



Western Mississippi. Keep in mind, Euro has 2000+ CAPE at this time frame.


South-central IN


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 1 2017, 11:35 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 1 2017, 10:24 PM) *
GFS is still not moving toward Euro with respect to the severe threat.



Western Mississippi. Keep in mind, Euro has 2000+ CAPE at this time frame.


South-central IN


I use Pro and the Euro hasn't worked on the 0z the last two days,quite annoying.It would be nice to hear some thunder since snow looks bleak for us.Euro though in the long range can be to high at times with instability,we'll see.Hope they fix this freakin' model soon.

This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Feb 1 2017, 11:37 PM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 2 2017, 12:20 AM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Feb 1 2017, 11:35 PM) *
I use Pro and the Euro hasn't worked on the 0z the last two days,quite annoying.It would be nice to hear some thunder since snow looks bleak for us.Euro though in the long range can be to high at times with instability,we'll see.Hope they fix this freakin' model soon.

Sucks it doesn't work on your site. You're missing out. If only Euro did forecast soundings...


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 2 2017, 01:50 AM
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Euro still has a ridiculously nasty setup for severe weather. 70 knot westerly winds at 500mb and 45 knot southwesterly winds at 850mb with ~2700 CAPE in Arkansas.

6 hours later in Mississippi, the jet streak moves into the warm sector and puts 80-90 knot winds at 500mb with 50 knot winds at 850mb with ~2300 CAPE.

Precip is showing intense convection forming as a result. Some areas get 2-3" of rain over a 6 hour period. Keep in mind that it's not raining the entire 6 hour period... it's probably an hour, tops.

This convection moves west-east and seems to be semi-discrete in nature (i.e., definitely not showing a squall line signature)

These parameters are just as nasty, if not nastier, than what verified on the January 22nd high risk day.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 2 2017, 02:00 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 2 2017, 10:51 AM
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Starting to see this event mentioned more and more.

Michael Ventrice posted his experimental severe weather index for the 6th



Here's how it did with the January 22 weekend outbreak



QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CST Thu Feb 02 2017

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Differences between GFS and ECMWF output from this evening's runs,
with respect to the large-scale flow field over the U.S., become
evident relatively early in the medium-range forecast period.
Broadly speaking, both models gradually evolve large-scale troughing
over the eastern two-thirds of the country by the middle of the
period (i.e. through the Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday time frame).
However, substantial differences exist between the two models at
smaller scales, with the GFS showing the bulk of the
shorter-wavelength troughing moving into/across the Great Lakes
region Day 6/Tuesday, while the ECMWF shifts substantial troughing
across the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Similar
differences in associated surface low positioning are also evident,
with the GFS depicting a deep low in the vicinity of Lake Superior
Tuesday evening, while the ECMWF places a weaker low near the IN/OH
border.

While from a broad perspective the convective/severe risk appears
likely to increase late Day 5 (Monday) and into Day 6 (Tuesday) and
7 (Wednesday), confidence with respect to ability to narrow down
location and magnitude of potential risk remains low, precluding any
areal depiction of severe potential at this time.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 2 2017, 11:09 AM
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GFS is making a strong trend toward the Euro with respect to moisture. GFS is so garbage with handling moisture return, it's frustrating. Look at Cincinnati... dew points are 14 degrees higher this run than last.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 2 2017, 11:11 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 2 2017, 11:36 AM
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Seems Dr. Forbes is siding with the GFS... which makes sense because he just posted the outlooks and GFS just came in and Euro is still 2 hours away.

QUOTE
MONDAY 2/6
Computer models still differ, but there could be some severe thunderstorms in late afternoon and evening and possibly into the overnight in south-central and east OK, east and north-central TX, southeast KS, southwest and south-central MO, west and central AR, northwest LA. TORCON - 2 for now, particularly east OK

TUESDAY 2/7 (no map attached)
Computer models differ, and instability looks limited as upper-air forcing is mostly in the Midwest, but a chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in TN, MS, AL. TORCON - 2 for now. Rain and locally strong winds in north CA.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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WeatherMonger
post Feb 2 2017, 12:50 PM
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All I want is thunder.

So CV, I need you to bring me the thunder laugh.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 2 2017, 01:38 PM
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Euro stepped down on the instability but is still probably 2x more than GFS. 2000-2300 CAPE is located in SE MO and S IL, which is just a little bit southeast of the 993mb low pressure at 18z. So you can just tell that area will be ripe for tornado potential.

1000-2000 CAPE expands north and east, from Louisiana to Northern Kentucky. It has intense convection in the OV, from SE IL through central Ohio, then also down in Alabama. These storms dump 2"+ of rain in streaks. At this time, the low pressure is in NW IN and has dropped 5mb in the past 6 hours.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 2 2017, 01:41 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 2 2017, 08:20 PM
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18z GFS still isn't seeing much more of a severe threat after the 6th.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 2 2017, 09:30 PM
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CIPS has some nasty severe weather analogs



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 2 2017, 11:14 PM
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GFS has a stronger severe threat... still not on Euro's level though.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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