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SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 06:31 PM


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GEFS show a signal at this timeframe near the coast
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288126 · Replies: · Views: 9,780

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 06:30 PM


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18z GEFS have a cold pattern starting from hour 174 through the end of the run with a storm signal near the 29-29th for the east

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2288124 · Replies: · Views: 372,908

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 06:21 PM


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GFS
Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288118 · Replies: · Views: 11,869

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 06:20 PM


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33 in Central Park
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2288117 · Replies: · Views: 81,511

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 10:02 AM


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Hi Res Nam shows 2-4 inches for NYC with more to the west and less to the east
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287836 · Replies: · Views: 81,511

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 09:14 AM


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QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Jan 16 2018, 10:10 AM) *
NAM and HRRR are slashing totals a bit and bringing rain all the way into Lehigh county


I just don't see the rain inland and even near the coast like the models show it

This isn't a deep punch of warm air coming in. This is a weak storm.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287808 · Replies: · Views: 81,511

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 12:02 PM


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CMC Ensembles are way further south and east with the storm tomorrow night
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287255 · Replies: · Views: 62,337

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 12:00 PM


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GEFS is east of the op and colder
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287254 · Replies: · Views: 62,337

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 11:40 AM


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Models are starting to show a storm during this timeframe
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287236 · Replies: · Views: 11,869

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 11:32 AM


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QUOTE(DCBlizzard @ Jan 15 2018, 12:24 PM) *
Define I-95. That is why mid-atlantic thread area is too big IMO but I know that has been discussed over and over. DC/Baltimore are definitely in the I-95 and we have had the BIG snow hole all season! We are now BELOW normal for snow this year. Been on big winter desert!


NYC north
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287226 · Replies: · Views: 62,337

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 10:18 AM


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QUOTE(mr freeze @ Jan 15 2018, 11:15 AM) *
Not necessarily, if it falls as snow, it should stick because the ground is once again frozen after 3 nights of teens and low 20's. Wet bulbs should fall Tuesday night and we should be fine. Not a huge storm as it looks now but enough to cause some disruption. Probably the last opportunity until Feb. Today will be day 19 that stays below freezing. The record is 52 in 1880-81. Need to reach 40 to make the top ten list. Most modern winters to rival it were 1976-77 (45 days) and 1977-78 (42 days). All others headed way back.


What's up buddy?

I agree with this post wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287166 · Replies: · Views: 62,337

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 10:18 AM


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QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Jan 15 2018, 11:10 AM) *
amazing how quiet this place is when I-95 S&E isnt in the game.


I-95 is in the game

I think the models are a little too warm

3k Nam has temps near 31

Models might be missing the cold air thats in place now

Enjoy the snow
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2287165 · Replies: · Views: 62,337

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 14 2018, 09:53 AM


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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 14 2018, 10:04 AM) *
This should have been more interesting.

[attachment=343578:could_ha...eresting.PNG]

Not seeing anything that can get the trough negative at this point.


Euro and now the 12z Nam is also more west with this wave. We have seen the Southeast ridge being undermodeled many times so far this winter.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286739 · Replies: · Views: 28,616

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 14 2018, 09:47 AM


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12z Nam

Pivotal weather snowmap has about 0.50-1 inch for the City with 3 + inches towards eastern LI and SNE

West of 6z though
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286737 · Replies: · Views: 62,337

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 14 2018, 12:01 AM


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GEFS also looks better than previous runs. We will see if the west trend is real in the upcoming days.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286674 · Replies: · Views: 28,616

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 11:09 PM


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0z German is west

2+ inches for NYC with more in eastern SNE
Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286670 · Replies: · Views: 28,616

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 11:01 PM


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Nam, GFS and CMC with some nice improvements tonight with wave 1

It's too early to give up on any of the waves . We have seen big shifts very close to an event this season.

Nice shift west with wave 1. We need more in the upcoming days.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2286667 · Replies: · Views: 28,616

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 10 2018, 09:59 PM


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18z Deep Thunder

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2283639 · Replies: · Views: 118,240

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 10 2018, 09:38 PM


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Nam is east of 18z and now has the low south of LI

Looks good for well interior areas of NY
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2283587 · Replies: · Views: 118,240

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 10 2018, 05:08 PM


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Better ridge placement on the GFS at 129. Looks like a Miller B gearing up.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2283290 · Replies: · Views: 62,337

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 7 2018, 09:36 AM


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CPC

The AO have members staying negative and some staying positive next weekend and beyond

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...ex/ao.sprd2.gif

The PNA will be rising towards next weekend and then dropping after that

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...k/pna/pna.shtml

The NAO will be staying positive

I think with a rising PNA and the AO all over the place, a colder solution shouldn't be ruled out for next weekend, especially after the lakes cutter. ( trailing wave )
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2280054 · Replies: · Views: 118,240

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 7 2018, 09:31 AM


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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Jan 7 2018, 10:20 AM) *
looks like some cold weather setting up for a couple days


Should be brief before we start the thaw
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2280053 · Replies: · Views: 118,240

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 7 2018, 09:28 AM


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This looks like a dusting to an inch for most near the coast and inland areas
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2280052 · Replies: · Views: 56,604

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 6 2018, 08:28 AM


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Very interesting storm to track

Hopefully it trends more east because freezing rain or even sleet is terrible
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2279545 · Replies: · Views: 118,240

SnowMan11
Posted on: Jan 4 2018, 06:58 PM


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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Jan 4 2018, 06:26 PM) *
You can see by the EURO a storm moving way west of the great lakes, the cold H moving off the coast, and our next storm down by FL.

looking at the EURO looks like more cold on the way possibly with another 1040 H coming down.


Wrong timeframe

This looks like WAA precip which I think will be trending colder for everyone due to the snowpack that's currently in place. The models are also trying to form a weak coastal but that's in question right now.

Euro has 1-3 inches for the NYC area
GFS is close and has been trending colder

We track wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2278815 · Replies: · Views: 56,604

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