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> EPAC: Major Hurricane Iselle, 2am PDT: 125mph - 958mb -Movement: W @ 9mph
NYCSuburbs
post Aug 4 2014, 08:45 AM
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Iselle has once again defied intensity forecasts and intensified into a major hurricane, with what NHC states appears to be an annular hurricane structure, and have accordingly slowed down the forecast weakening trend.

5am NHC discussion:?

QUOTE
Iselle continues to show an annular hurricane structure with no
outer banding around a symmetric inner core.
Satellite
classifications are about the same as a few hours ago, so the
initial wind speed will remain 110 kt. Little change in intensity
is likely today while a low-shear environment remains near the
hurricane. Iselle is likely to experience some shear on Tuesday,
which should start a more consistent weakening. As the cyclone
moves deeper into the central Pacific basin, a combination of dry
air aloft, westerly shear and marginal SSTs should continue the
weakening process. The latest NHC forecast is somewhat above the
model consensus early on due to the annular structure, but ends up
below the consensus at long range due to the unfavorable
environment described above.


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NHC predicts it will pass just north of Big Island and make landfall near NW Hawaii as a tropical storm. We'll have to see how well that goes; last year's Flossie was forecast to make landfall near Big Island, but collapsed into a tropical depression and relocated north of the islands at the last minute. No tropical cyclone made landfall in Hawaii since 1993's Eugene, and I don't think any tropical storm made landfall in Big Island since 1950.

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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 4 2014, 10:53 AM
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Third category 4 hurricane of the season...

11am EDT: 140 mph / 947 mb

Discussion:

QUOTE
Iselle continues to intensify and has reached category 4 strength.
Convective cloud tops as cold as -75C surround the eye, which has
grown to a diameter of 25-30 n mi. Dvorak estimates were a
consensus T6.0/115 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC, and the
objective UW-CIMSS ADT has crept up to T6.3/122 kt since that time.
Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 120
kt. Vertical shear is expected to remain light for the next 24 hours
or so while Iselle moves over gradually cooler SSTs. Since Iselle
has some characteristics of an annular hurricane, it is likely to
change little in intensity during the next day or so, and even when
it begins to weaken, the trend should be gradual.


Satellite - cloud tops seem to be warming a bit so Iselle may be near peak strength IMO:

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Juniorrr
post Aug 4 2014, 12:59 PM
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Beautiful eye and structure... very circular like lol
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 4 2014, 06:34 PM
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Still holding together... intensity maintained at 140 mph as of the 5pm EDT update.

In case anyone was wondering, I didn't edit the circular eyewall with Paint or Photoshop.

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ohiobuckeye45
post Aug 4 2014, 07:35 PM
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I can't imagine if julio follows this same path but hits the islands with hurricane power. Flooding followed by hurricane on an island 40 miles wide would be a disaster especially within a week
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 4 2014, 09:28 PM
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NWS Honolulu forecast for Hilo looks rather stormy... which could be followed by Julio just a few days later.

I'm not fully convinced it'll make landfall in Hawaii as a tropical storm, but it definitely bears watching. No tropical cyclone made landfall in the Big Island since 1993, although some have come close.

Attached File  Plotter.php.png ( 27.17K ) Number of downloads: 122


Almost perfect circular structure this evening.

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This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Aug 4 2014, 10:03 PM
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LUCC
post Aug 5 2014, 08:46 AM
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[attachment=238104:Iselle.gif]

This post has been edited by LUCC: Aug 5 2014, 08:48 AM


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 5 2014, 11:36 PM
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Tropical storm watch issued for parts of Hawaii. Luckily it seems Julio is trending increasingly north of the islands towards next weekend.

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ohiobuckeye45
post Aug 6 2014, 04:16 PM
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Landfall as a hurricane ????? Yikes...
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 6 2014, 05:19 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Aug 6 2014, 05:16 PM) *
Landfall as a hurricane ????? Yikes...

Looks like Iselle actually intensified slightly this afternoon (85-90 mph winds), prompting CPHC to issue a hurricane warning for SE Hawaii... this seems to have only been a temporary burst though, there's still some dry air around Iselle and it wouldn't surprise me if given the latest trends it weakens to a tropical storm with the center sliding just south of South Point, but nonetheless it looks to be the most significant tropical cyclone to affect Hawaii for a while, possibly since Iniki.

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ohiobuckeye45
post Aug 7 2014, 06:54 AM
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still looking like some 20+ year history.

Max sustained at 90 actually gives it some wiggle room to hold the "title"



This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Aug 7 2014, 06:58 AM
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 7 2014, 07:05 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Aug 7 2014, 07:54 AM) *
still looking like some 20+ year history.

Max sustained at 90 actually gives it some wiggle room to hold the "title"


Probably even more than that... looking through a history of Hawaii tropical cyclones from 1949, all hurricanes came in from the west, and only 2 tropical cyclones I think made landfall in Big Island, Eugene (1993) as a tropical depression and an unnamed weak tropical storm in 1957. If this does continue on its current path (I was too optimistic yesterday...), it will be unprecedented in modern historical records.
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LUCC
post Aug 7 2014, 09:55 AM
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Looks like the entire island chain will be on the N/NE side of this one as well.


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 7 2014, 11:09 PM
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Inner core of Iselle showing up on the Hawaii radar mosaic:

Attached Image

It's barely hanging onto hurricane intensity, and seems to have taken a west/WSW wobble which places the landfall location close to the southern tip of Big Island, as opposed to the center of the island which was forecast earlier today. If it manages to shift further south closer to the southern coast, this may slightly delay Iselle's demise as a track right through the center of Big Island would significantly disturb Iselle's inner core with the 4000+ meter peaks.

With increasing shear and a less organized structure, I would expect Iselle to make landfall in southern Big Island as a strong tropical storm, which will be the first time this has happened in modern records, although there are reports of a possible hurricane in Big Island in 1871.

Screenshot of the forecast for one of these 4 kilometer mountain peaks - imagine if it was several degrees colder...

Attached Image


On another note, while typing up this post, a perfectly timed ad showed up in the top of the page recommending a vacation to the Big Island of Hawaii laugh.gif
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 8 2014, 08:23 AM
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Iselle officially made landfall in the southern coast of the Big Island... the first tropical storm to do so in the satellite era, despite many storms having approached Hawaii from the east over the years and several landfalls in the western islands of Hawaii.

QUOTE
WTPA63 PHFO 081245
TCUCP3

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
245 AM HST FRI AUG 8 2014

...CENTER OF ISELLE MAKES LANDFALL...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 230 AM
HST...1230 UTC...ALONG THE KAU COAST ON THE BIG ISLAND...ABOUT 5
MILES EAST OF PAHALA.


SUMMARY OF 245 AM HST...1245 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 155.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...64 KM SSW OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 9 2014, 12:13 AM
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For a relatively small island, the Big Island gets the job done like Hispaniola in shredding tropical cyclones, as would normally be expected from a tropical cyclone circulation moving through 4000+ meter (13,000 feet) peaks regardless of the size of the landmass. Iselle is pretty much shredded apart and looks to simply keep dissipating from this point on.

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