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> March 28-29 MidAtl/NE Storm Potential, Short Range (1-3 days)
JDClapper
post Mar 22 2015, 02:36 PM
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This has been discussed over the past several days on the March 25-27 thread .. separating so we can concentrate on 1 event/potential in each thread.

12z GFS made another step closer to at least impacting coastal places .. see the 500/vort picture and the shift of the backside of the trough.


Attached Image


Eventually this happens


Attached Image


12z CMC is a bit faster and much further west, which it has shown over several runs now..


Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


12z Euro resembles the GFS as a miss wide-right for this region.

12z UKMET looks very GFS like, if you compare these maps..


GFS


Verbatim, models (except CMC) says not likely. But, they weren't too hot on this past Friday either. And if I recall, the CMC caught on a bit faster this past time... 2 in a row this time?

This post has been edited by JDClapper: Mar 26 2015, 08:44 PM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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MaineJay
post Mar 22 2015, 02:45 PM
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0z EURO to 12z euro comparison. Looks like the eastern trough and surface low about 12 hours slower, energy topping the western ridge quicker (edit: not quicker, but more separated), still goes OTS, but baby steps.

22/0z hr 144


22 /12z hr 144

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/ecm...op.html#picture

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 22 2015, 02:48 PM


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Road Runner
post Mar 22 2015, 03:55 PM
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Mount Holly

QUOTE
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT. ENSEMBLES ARE TOTALLY SPAGHETTI
THOUGH THE 12Z OP RUNS ARE ALL STARTING TO INDICATE IT BEING
WORTHY TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND A POTENTIAL WET
WEATHER MAKER FOR FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. IF THIS TRANSPIRES
, WINTRY
WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
THE 12Z/22 GGEM BEING THE INSIDE RUNNER
WARMEST MODEL. SO WHILE THE DETAILS ARE TO BE DETERMINED OUR FCST
HAS INDICATIONS OF THIS EVENT AND FROM MY OWN PERSPECTIVE IT IS
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS (REFERENCE THE NAEFS).


This post has been edited by Road Runner: Mar 22 2015, 03:56 PM
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east coast storm
post Mar 22 2015, 05:44 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 22 2015, 03:36 PM) *
This has been discussed over the past several days on the March 25-27 thread .. separating so we can concentrate on 1 event/potential in each thread.

12z GFS made another step closer to at least impacting coastal places .. see the 500/vort picture and the shift of the backside of the trough.


Attached Image


Eventually this happens


Attached Image


12z CMC is a bit faster and much further west, which it has shown over several runs now..


Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


12z Euro resembles the GFS as a miss wide-right for this region.

12z UKMET looks very GFS like, if you compare these maps..


GFS


Verbatim, models (except CMC) says not likely. But, they weren't too hot on this past Friday either. And if I recall, the CMC caught on a bit faster this past time... 2 in a row this time?

The GGEM has a classic noreaster in the friday saturday timeframe.
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east coast storm
post Mar 23 2015, 09:16 AM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Mar 22 2015, 06:44 PM) *
The GGEM has a classic noreaster in the friday saturday timeframe.

The 6Z GFS has no storm in this timeframe. As always, it could change.
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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 23 2015, 10:49 AM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Mar 23 2015, 10:16 AM) *
The 6Z GFS has no storm in this timeframe. As always, it could change.

Imagine that.....Canadian has a classic Nor'easter however the GFS has nothing....lol

Gotta love Todays technology dry.gif
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telejunkie
post Mar 23 2015, 12:56 PM
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man this past month has been boring and frustrating...would be like Jan-Feb '09-'10, but at least there were big storms in the mid-atlantic that year to at least keep things at least somewhat interesting. Lots of cold and potential with zero to show for it...I think i've recorded 3" over the past 5 weeks. dry.gif
This nice looking trough once again looks to remain progressive & positive...ughh


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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JDClapper
post Mar 23 2015, 02:43 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Mar 23 2015, 01:56 PM) *
man this past month has been boring and frustrating...would be like Jan-Feb '09-'10, but at least there were big storms in the mid-atlantic that year to at least keep things at least somewhat interesting. Lots of cold and potential with zero to show for it...I think i've recorded 3" over the past 5 weeks. dry.gif
This nice looking trough once again looks to remain progressive & positive...ughh


Yeah, this potential is having a hard time manifesting on the models .. sure, time to change, but I think we are getting into that period where it's less and less likely, especially by tomorrow's 12z run..

GFS still missing and CMC seems to be headed that way now... trying to give some backend snow in the MidAlt when the cold front passes, Maine could be in a better spot... but it is the CMC.

And of course hours 348-360 look "interesting" on the 12z GFS. They always look interesting.

I don't think I've ever opened a thread that came through with good winter impacts for the many. I need to stop. laugh.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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AVF21
post Mar 23 2015, 02:56 PM
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I wouldn't count this out. The models (or model) had it there once so it can always come back. A different scenario but remember the "historic blizzard" was only suppose to be a clipper, then suddenly the euro picked up on it turning into a coastal storm. Still plenty of time for change.


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2014-2015 Winter
Winter Weather Advisory: 9
Winter Storm Warning: 3
Blizzard Warning: 1


2015-2016 Winter
Winter Weather Advisory: 6
Blizzard Warning: 1


2016-2017 Winter
Winter Weather Advisory: 4
Winter Storm Warning: 3
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clindner00
post Mar 23 2015, 03:37 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 23 2015, 02:43 PM) *
Yeah, this potential is having a hard time manifesting on the models .. sure, time to change, but I think we are getting into that period where it's less and less likely, especially by tomorrow's 12z run..

GFS still missing and CMC seems to be headed that way now... trying to give some backend snow in the MidAlt when the cold front passes, Maine could be in a better spot... but it is the CMC.

And of course hours 348-360 look "interesting" on the 12z GFS. They always look interesting.

I don't think I've ever opened a thread that came through with good winter impacts for the many. I need to stop. laugh.gif

I wish I would have counted how many times the word "interesting" was used this winter. I think I would have lost track back in December though. It had to have been the most absurdly overused word this winter. sorry east coast storm. laugh.gif
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Road Runner
post Mar 23 2015, 04:09 PM
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QUOTE(AVF21 @ Mar 23 2015, 03:56 PM) *
I wouldn't count this out. The models (or model) had it there once so it can always come back. A different scenario but remember the "historic blizzard" was only suppose to be a clipper, then suddenly the euro picked up on it turning into a coastal storm. Still plenty of time for change.


I would agree, anything can happen, but honestly, the potential looks to be dwindling. With April fast approaching, our chances of snow here in Jersey are quickly diminishing.

Mount Holly

QUOTE
INTO FRIDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP LOOKS TO FEATURE THE OFFSHORE COLD
FRONT, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES, AND A PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST. OVERALL, A DRYING NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SETTING UP, WITH EVEN THE 12Z CMC NO LONGER SHOWING POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE CMC IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF,
LOOKING MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE, WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT WELL
OFFSHORE. THEREFORE, WE CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS.
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east coast storm
post Mar 23 2015, 05:35 PM
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QUOTE(clindner00 @ Mar 23 2015, 04:37 PM) *
I wish I would have counted how many times the word "interesting" was used this winter. I think I would have lost track back in December though. It had to have been the most absurdly overused word this winter. sorry east coast storm. laugh.gif

Thats OK. No problem. Sometimes the model runs really do look interesting with
a major noreaster and then 2 or 3 runs later the storm is gone. Thats the
way it is.
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telejunkie
post Mar 23 2015, 07:10 PM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Mar 23 2015, 06:35 PM) *
Thats OK. No problem. Sometimes the model runs really do look interesting with
a major noreaster and then 2 or 3 runs later the storm is gone. Thats the
way it is.

Or sometimes (like this time) that you think you see potential for a big hit with lots of energy carving out a deep trough...yet bigger picture factors prevent it from creating a storm. It's kind of like my first marriage, I kept hoping for things to change on the surface, but underlying issues prevent it...but the potential was there...
Okay, time to move on...but problem is that I'm just not done with winter yet cool.gif

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Mar 23 2015, 07:12 PM


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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MaineJay
post Mar 24 2015, 04:49 AM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Mar 23 2015, 08:10 PM) *
Or sometimes (like this time) that you think you see potential for a big hit with lots of energy carving out a deep trough...yet bigger picture factors prevent it from creating a storm. It's kind of like my first marriage, I kept hoping for things to change on the surface, but underlying issues prevent it...but the potential was there...
Okay, time to move on...but problem is that I'm just not done with winter yet cool.gif


I love it when it goes from winter to summer, provided winter relents at some point. I'd post the CPC maps, but they paint the same picture.

Attached Image

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html

Straying OT, and 10 days out, but 4/3 thread anyone ? tongue.gif
24/0z hr 240
GFS

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_0z/mrf240.html
Euro

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f240.php

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 24 2015, 04:50 AM


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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

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"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Ryan Duff
post Mar 24 2015, 05:35 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 24 2015, 05:49 AM) *
Straying OT, and 10 days out, but 4/3 thread anyone ? tongue.gif



Winter of butterface storms continue. Looks like potential in 9-10 day range but once closer it just disappears or otherwise looks ugly. wink.gif


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east coast storm
post Mar 24 2015, 11:53 AM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Mar 24 2015, 06:35 AM) *
Winter of butterface storms continue. Looks like potential in 9-10 day range but once closer it just disappears or otherwise looks ugly. wink.gif

The 12Z GFS run shows the low a little closer to the EC, possibly an inverted
trough situation in the weekend timeframe.
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OSNW3
post Mar 24 2015, 03:57 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 22 2015, 01:36 PM) *
This has been discussed over the past several days on the March 25-27 thread .. separating so we can concentrate on 1 event/potential in each thread.

12z GFS made another step closer to at least impacting coastal places .. see the 500/vort picture and the shift of the backside of the trough.


Attached Image


Eventually this happens


Attached Image


12z CMC is a bit faster and much further west, which it has shown over several runs now..


Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


12z Euro resembles the GFS as a miss wide-right for this region.

12z UKMET looks very GFS like, if you compare these maps..


GFS


Verbatim, models (except CMC) says not likely. But, they weren't too hot on this past Friday either. And if I recall, the CMC caught on a bit faster this past time... 2 in a row this time?


Depending on the BSR duration this might be fuel for this flame? http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2010869


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telejunkie
post Mar 24 2015, 05:10 PM
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Atm, this one has some rough similarities to the Jan 19th storm, with cold air trying to wrap into the system. Looks like NAM was warmest with that storm, while it seems the coldest currently with one


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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east coast storm
post Mar 24 2015, 05:22 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Mar 24 2015, 06:10 PM) *
Atm, this one has some rough similarities to the Jan 19th storm, with cold air trying to wrap into the system. Looks like NAM was warmest with that storm, while it seems the coldest currently with one

The 18Z GFS still has the low off the coast with a possible inverted trough. If
an inverted trough does develop west of the LP, it could brush coastal areas
with a period of light snow or flurries over the weekend.

This post has been edited by east coast storm: Mar 24 2015, 05:35 PM
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telejunkie
post Mar 24 2015, 08:19 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Mar 24 2015, 06:10 PM) *
Atm, this one has some rough similarities to the Jan 19th storm, with cold air trying to wrap into the system. Looks like NAM was warmest with that storm, while it seems the coldest currently with one



QUOTE(east coast storm @ Mar 24 2015, 06:22 PM) *
The 18Z GFS still has the low off the coast with a possible inverted trough. If
an inverted trough does develop west of the LP, it could brush coastal areas
with a period of light snow or flurries over the weekend.

Whoops...my earlier post was suppose to be in the thread for the storm on the 26th, which has a developing SLP crossing the region. Question is about the cold air...


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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