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> Dec 5-6th Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm, Please See Obs Thread
BtownWxWatcher
post Dec 4 2009, 05:25 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 4 2009, 05:21 PM) *
Below is my first snow map for this storm.

What we are looking at as of now is a low pressure from the deep south moving NE and offshore, which will bring snow to some areas. We still have some questions about the track, though the models are coming to a solution that I-95 may see some snow out of this.

When making my snow map, I considered the following four factors:

1: Snow ratios should be relatively low due to the snow being wet, between 5:1 and 10:1. In other words, if the GFS shows I-95 getting 0.5 inch of QPF, it would result in 2.5 to 5 inches of snow, though there will be mixing. Higher elevations and perhaps Maine should not have any major issues with snow ratios. Temperatures in the major cities will be in the mid-upper 30s, which is too warm for any notable accumulation. That is why I am going conservative with forecasts.
2: Rain will fall first in I-95 and areas slightly west of I-95, that will make the ground wet and as a result, it will be nearly impossible for the snow to accumulate on paved surfaces. Further inland, this should be all snow.
3: That is true about this storm, we will not be working with a lot of cold air, as we are also looking at warmer temperatures near the coast and possibly NYC and Boston that will keep at least half, if not most of the storm's precipitation as rain.
4: Sleet and freezing rain should not be a major issue with this storm.

Below is my map and forecasts for the cities:

DC: Rain to moderate snow, slushy 1-2 inches
Philadelphia: Rain to moderate snow, up to 1 inch of wet snow
NYC: Moderate rain to rain/snow mixture, dusting to 1/4 inch on cold surfaces
Boston: Rain to moderate snow, up to 1 inch of wet snow.

[attachment=65834:Picture1.png]

Surface temperatures will be in the 30s, I am expecting NYC to get at least ''some'' accumulation out of this, in the area of 2-3 inches IMO, remember, most of the other levels are cool enough.


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bradjl2009
post Dec 4 2009, 05:26 PM
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Not that anyonew here really cares, the local weather I just listened to had an inch or less for Pittsburgh, 1-2 in the counties near the WV border, and 2-4 in the maryland mountains.
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ddweatherman
post Dec 4 2009, 05:26 PM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Dec 4 2009, 05:25 PM) *
Surface temperatures will be in the 30s, I am expecting NYC to get at least ''some'' accumulation out of this, in the area of 2-3 inches IMO, remember, most of the other levels are cool enough.

Going to make your final call for us now or after the 00z Runs? Also, how late are ya staying up tonight my friend?


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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Dec 4 2009, 05:26 PM
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QUOTE(ddweatherman @ Dec 4 2009, 05:24 PM) *
i hate IMBY matt but what are your thoughts for me in SE Bal as of now? Also, how much are you thinking if a 12z GFS like solution occurs?

I posted my map my friend..i will have a map later tonight that will be final! I am not watching models now but radar and satellite and observations
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Weatherjunkie
post Dec 4 2009, 05:27 PM
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Hehe biggrin.gif

12z UW NMS accumulated snowfall. I-95 special.


Attached Image


6-8" from PHL to N NJ. 4-6" for D.C and NYC.

This is a short range model. Accuracy is questionable. Fortunately if you combine the MM5 smaller grid scale and the precip brought in by most 12z models (0.6"+), then it seems that this run fits in fairly well with some of the other 12z runs.



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trex
post Dec 4 2009, 05:27 PM
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QUOTE(atlbravesfalcs7 @ Dec 4 2009, 05:13 PM) *
haha its so frustrating to see everyone on here saying that my area is going to do really well and HM says the same thing and even the accuweather snow map has me in heaviest, then the guy on tv bursts my bubble and says one to two inches are possible im just like wow..

If your referring to Channel 10. They are garbage.
Channel 7 has 2-4, but man I think this is it, you can already start to see snow break out ahead of the main shield over kentucky. I think we get a good 4-6". The NWS said they were being conservative, and I think they will up us to warnings around 9 or 10 because of the 18z runs.


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2012-2012 Snow Totals

Fancy Gap, Va
Elevation: 3009'

Blue Ridge Mountains of SWVA/NWNC

October 31st - 1"
December 21st - 1"
December 26th - 1"
January 17th - 11" in 5 hours
January 25th, 1"
February 1-2 - 2"
February 18th -1"
February 22 - 1"
March 25th - 2"
April 4th - 4"

Snowfall to date- 25"
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ddweatherman
post Dec 4 2009, 05:27 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Dec 4 2009, 05:26 PM) *
I posted my map my friend..i will have a map later tonight that will be final! I am not watching models now but radar and satellite and observations

I see, is your map on your site?


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tick629
post Dec 4 2009, 05:27 PM
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 4 2009, 05:20 PM) *
wow, hpc, are you blind?

[attachment=65833:day2_psnow_gt_04.gif]


thats 4 inches plus...most of the snow will be less than that


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NYCSuburbs
post Dec 4 2009, 05:28 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Dec 4 2009, 05:27 PM) *
Hehe biggrin.gif

12z UW NMS accumulated snowfall. I-95 special.


Attached Image


6-8" from PHL to N NJ. 4-6" for D.C and NYC.

This is a short range model. Accuracy is questionable. Fortunately if you combine the MM5 smaller grid scale and the precip brought in by most 12z models (0.6"+), then it seems that this run fits in fairly well with some of the other 12z runs.

This is now my favorite model laugh.gif
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GreentownShrek
post Dec 4 2009, 05:28 PM
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ok guys so waht do u think for the pocono mountains
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sw03181
post Dec 4 2009, 05:29 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 4 2009, 05:28 PM) *
This is now my favorite model laugh.gif

someone in central jersey gets 6-8 based on this.


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2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


[size=2]2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40“ ±/- 6"
Actual: 14.25"

11/14: 0.25"
11/26: 2.5"
11/27: T
12/2: T
12/11: 0.5"
12/20: T (flurries)
12/21 2.0“
1/2: T (flurries)
1/3: 1"
1/6: T (dusting)
1/7: T (flurries)
1/9: 3"
1/14: T (dusting)
1/24: 5"
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MikeySed
post Dec 4 2009, 05:29 PM
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For anyone in the tri-state... Channels: 2,5,7 says NYC is slushy 1 inch, Most points n/w are 1-3, and extreme farther parts are 2-4.. there snow maps are basically all identical.

Awaiting NBC 4 at 6.


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Poconos Blizzard
post Dec 4 2009, 05:29 PM
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You guys see the precip is completely over florida and in southern texas: http://www.accuweather.com/radar-large.asp...nal&large=1


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nuttyrich
post Dec 4 2009, 05:30 PM
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QUOTE(longislandwx @ Dec 4 2009, 05:19 PM) *
I have tons of respect to Lee Goldberg and he is a great met but, he is still a TV met and I have learned not to trust ANY TV met no matter how good they are. Thats just my opinion. dry.gif



I agree but he was the only Met to even MENTION a storm this weekend, (he said near miss quite a few days back) today he said it came further west (based on models) as we all saw.

But nothing to back up a pure snow event. Everyone has it starting as rain, and changing eventually over to snow. I don't see any met saying it won't end as snow, and that's all that matters. (To me)

I think axtown is right, the track is all but certain... let's just follow the radar.. and the temps. That's all we can do.. track is pretty much nailed.

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stilko4
post Dec 4 2009, 05:31 PM
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QUOTE(nuttyrich @ Dec 4 2009, 05:16 PM) *
I can one up you.. it says "Breaking news Snow for NYC,Boston... you go to the weather alarm and here is what I get in Queens,NY

Heavy rain occurring on Dec 5. Total amount 0.51 Inches.



im in syosset, on the north shore in NE nassau county. my weather alam says Snow occurring on Dec 5. Total amount 1.1 Inches. - this is as of 30 seconds ago


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snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
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winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Dec 4 2009, 05:31 PM
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QUOTE(ddweatherman @ Dec 4 2009, 05:27 PM) *
I see, is your map on your site?

No because it was only a preliminary map and rough sketch at best..here it is one more time..

Attached Image

Totals may be upped on the final map...

PS current temp is 42...dropped 4 degrees once sun went down and never reached the forecasted high temp either..
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Poconos Blizzard
post Dec 4 2009, 05:31 PM
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QUOTE(GreentownShrek @ Dec 4 2009, 05:28 PM) *
ok guys so waht do u think for the pocono mountains


Eastern and southern poconos should do pretty good a solid 3-6 inch storm maybe more.


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NYCSuburbs
post Dec 4 2009, 05:31 PM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Dec 4 2009, 05:25 PM) *
Surface temperatures will be in the 30s, I am expecting NYC to get at least ''some'' accumulation out of this, in the area of 2-3 inches IMO, remember, most of the other levels are cool enough.

Yes, the other levels do seem favorable for snow, that I have no doubt about, though what really counts for accumulation is the surface temperatures, which due to the rain falling earlier and the warmth before the storm will make it hard for accumulation, at least in the parts of NYC closer to the coast. Also IMO the snow gradient further east could be tight, in fact I would not be surprised if we get a scenario where places such as Coney Island get only snow showers while places like Bronx end up with an inch of snow...
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WEATHERFAN100
post Dec 4 2009, 05:32 PM
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I love that UM NMS Model Junkie! laugh.gif

Bring on the 6-8!

Wonder how accurate it really is though.


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nuttyrich
post Dec 4 2009, 05:32 PM
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QUOTE(MikeySed @ Dec 4 2009, 05:29 PM) *
For anyone in the tri-state... Channels: 2,5,7 says NYC is slushy 1 inch, Most points n/w are 1-3, and extreme farther parts are 2-4.. there snow maps are basically all identical.

Awaiting NBC 4 at 6.



Goldberg is the only one who said 1-3 inches + for N/W he said he would go into detail about the + in the next segment.

Lets watch the temps radar .. dew points.. and hope for the best this early in Dec, that's all we can do!
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