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Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 7 2018, 03:22 PM


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We made it to 91 before the clouds and showers moved in - that make 3 in a row smile.gif

https://wxforums.com/
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2333354 · Replies: · Views: 29,041

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 5 2018, 05:29 PM


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Of course, those of us still drying out appreciate the full sun - even if it comes with a humidity price tag.

QUOTE
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Monday looks like an almost carbon copy of today with any fog
disappearing early, leading to a hot and humid day with highs
in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Dewpoints will in the mid 60s to
lower 70s will make it feel very sticky and uncomfortable. Max
heat indices of 100 degrees expected in the middle to lower
Susquehanna Valley will result in a heat advisory from noon to
7PM Monday.
There also could be an afternoon or evening in
spots, but still expect coverage and intensity to remain
limited.

&&

The heat peaks earlier in the week, but temperatures will be
near or slightly above normal throughout the extended forecast
period, with humidity also remaining stubbornly high.
It looks
more like some pretty typical mid summer weather as opposed to
the monsoonal downpours we have been dealing with for the last
couple of weeks.






.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2333182 · Replies: · Views: 29,041

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 4 2018, 01:07 PM


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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Aug 4 2018, 10:39 AM) *
Let's get Tropical!

Don't think my valley will quite hit heat wave criteria, but it wouldn't surprise me if we did

Almost pulled the trigger on a HW thread, but the criteria of three days may barely be met for many - guessing S MidAtl will do so easily but above 40N, the inland regions don't seem to quite make it - coastal plain being an exception..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2333109 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 4 2018, 07:17 AM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Aug 4 2018, 07:37 AM) *
Was downpouring like crazy last night in town. Streets became mini rivers again just done with it at this point. Was talking with someone from work about it and he said currently down in baltimore we could literally go for the rest of the year without a single drop of rain and still be above average on the year that is how much above average we are right now. Im sure its only more impressive the further NW you go as some areas over that same period were 15"+ of rainfall especially into southern PA.

Thankfully, the LR OFM signals seem to point to a pattern shift ~20th and that looks to be one that will sustain.

Until then, the models advertise "fits and spurts" of rain showers with the end of the trough parade (still a week and a half away, but increasingly likely). So we seem to be on a "less rainy" trend - but not all fair and dry, just less rainy (admittedly, not hard to attain) and on the coolish side of the ledger.


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2333069 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 3 2018, 06:14 PM


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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Aug 3 2018, 06:49 PM) *
Brutally hard rains just coming and going

Radar indicates more of the same

It's funny in between the hard rains the humming birds are whipping in to gulp down whatever they can. I'm guessing they go back into the trees and put on their rain coats till it's over again. tongue.gif

Hummer's don't mind a bit of rain. I've seen them at my feeders during downpours. And they absolutely delight in the spray of a lawn sprinkler if you set it up on a hot afternoon - it's worth the water to watch them play among it.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2333028 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 3 2018, 06:13 PM


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And now, from the Department of Redundancy Department

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2333027 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 3 2018, 04:00 PM


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all too familiar lately

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2333016 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 3 2018, 03:44 PM


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2333014 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 3 2018, 03:43 PM


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QUOTE
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0592
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
147 PM EDT Fri Aug 03 2018

Areas affected...Central to Eastern PA...Upstate NY...Western
MA...Southern VT and NH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031745Z - 032345Z

Summary...Slow-moving, training precipitation is expected to
continue to spread to the northeast, producing additional heavy
amounts.

Discussion...Morning soundings at PIT and ALY showed deep
saturation through the low to mid levels, with tall skinny CAPEs -
supporting efficient rainfall processes. Observations from
central PA have shown the potential for some of these ongoing
storms to quickly produce heavy amounts. Deep southerly inflow
ahead of a slow-moving trough will continue to support an
anomalous moisture plume. This moisture along with strengthening
dynamics afforded by mid-level energy and favorable upper jet
forcing, in addition to increasing instability, is expected to
support an expanding axis of training precipitation. This may
produce additional moderate to heavy amounts within the
highlighted region. Neighborhood probabilities from the 12 UTC
HREF Mean show a significant signal for additional amounts of
2-inches or more through 00 UTC Sat within this region. These
amounts may cause hydrologic concerns, especially across portions
of central to northeastern PA and the Catskill region in Upstate
NY, where flash flood guidance values are quite low from recent
heavy rains.

Pereira

mn
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2333013 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 3 2018, 03:26 PM


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.
QUOTE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Focus for locally heavy rain continues through Central PA.
Rainfall readings were running almost twice what radar estimates
were indicating and so we changed to tropical mode on the radar.



https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

ohmy.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2333010 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 3 2018, 11:42 AM


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332993 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 3 2018, 04:29 AM


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332970 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 3 2018, 04:22 AM


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332969 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 1 2018, 06:43 PM


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Clapper is telling me of heavy rain in the Port, so that line in PA still has the relatively high PWAT, etc, to cause some concern about localized flooding.

I see there is a Flood Warned event to my southwest in the front of the Highlands.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332872 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 1 2018, 04:34 PM


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Slight Risk was dropped at 4 p.m. update

QUOTE
SPC AC 011956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Wed Aug 01 2018

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PART
OF THE EASTERN U.S....PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS/ROCKIES...

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332867 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 1 2018, 04:33 PM


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Still some veering showing up, but I would expect that to "un-enhanced" (if you will) by other dynamics. Still some concern for any kind of winds that could catch the canopy and wrench trees out of the still saturated surface.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332866 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 1 2018, 04:31 PM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Aug 1 2018, 05:25 PM) *
Slight capping keeping things from towering just yet and with the forcing starting to move in from the SW things should get going pretty soon looks like the area in SCPA is starting to exhibit what may be to come.

Something tells me things are just a little off for a large severe weather event other than a region dealing with a squall or small scale bow echo situation. Lets see how it plays out though meso models backed off of what they thought would happen today from yesterday.

Heck - they've back off from even later this morning.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=...us_ne&dpdt=
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332865 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 1 2018, 02:54 PM


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QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 1216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Wed Aug 01 2018

Areas affected...Portions of eastern WV...MD...northern VA...and
central/eastern PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 011915Z - 012145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected through
the afternoon, with some risk for strong to locally damaging winds.
Watch issuance is possible depending on convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown gradual clearing
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon downstream of a
large-scale upper trough centered over the MS Valley. A very moist
low-level airmass is present across this region per 12Z area
soundings and recent surface observations. With continued diurnal
heating through the remainder of the afternoon, surface temperatures
will generally warm into the mid/upper 80s, with MLCAPE of 500-1500
J/kg likely. Strengthening flow at mid-levels will support effective
bulk shear of 40-50 kt, although the main contribution to these
shear values will come from increasing wind speeds with height
rather than directional turning. One or more bowing line segments
may eventually develop off the higher terrain of eastern WV/northern
VA/western MD and move into parts of central/eastern PA by early
this evening. If this were to occur, then a relatively greater
potential for strong to damaging winds may be realized.
However,
poor mid-level lapse rates (around 5.5-6.0 C/km) will likely limit
updraft strength, and the overall coverage of strong to severe
thunderstorms remains in question.

..Gleason/Grams.. 08/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...R
X...
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332855 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 1 2018, 11:46 AM


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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Wed Aug 01 2018

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES...

SPC mid-day update

QUOTE
...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are most likely across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions this afternoon.

...Eastern States...
East of a longwave trough centered across the MS Valley, a belt of
50-60 kt 500 mb south-southwesterlies should exist at 00Z from
western NC northeast towards the New York City tri-state region. In
spite of this strong belt of flow, pervasively poor mid-level lapse
rates peaking only from 5.5-6 C/km along with winds weakening from
the mid to upper levels will serve to curtail the overall severe
threat. The degree of boundary-layer heating will be quite
influential on where the relatively greatest damaging wind potential
will exist. With broken cloudiness evident from eastern WV/western
VA into eastern PA, this corridor appears most likely to have a
couple multicell clusters evolve with 30-50 kt gusts, yielding a
risk of scattered tree damage.


Holy Cow! This is for like 11 p.m. ohmy.gif ohmy.gif

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332847 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 1 2018, 05:52 AM


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Let's see - super soaked soils pre-event, more rain sometimes heavy, and twisty wind profiles with decent shear versus full leafed trees.

Would could possibly go wrong?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332833 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 1 2018, 04:57 AM


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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Aug 1 2018, 05:46 AM) *
Possible severe wx day, when ever we have a sw flow with shear I always get a little worried, these type of storms almost always pack a punch in my area with hail, straight line winds and isolated tornadoes, when storms come from the nw straight line winds are usually the issue, but the mighty apps usually cut the threat down some, with the sw flow the apps do little to slow things down, if anything there is enhancement due to land enhanced lift couple that with an open warmth / moisture fetch from the sw and colder ocean influence, sometimes when these ingredients come together we get stacked storms with lots of wet down bursts and some extreme hail (not big hail, just inches of dime / nickel hail. This should be interesting.
last time we had this setup we had an f2 tornado in wantage nj, I think it was 2009

Indeed, when we see both left and right motion within the Hodograph's, that is a concerning. The temp falls at height are not the worst I've seen, but seem ample. With MUCAPE running in the mid 2K j/kg range, the tipping point could be breeched, easily.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332828 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 1 2018, 04:40 AM


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CTP

QUOTE
There will be a late morning lull in the convection and precip
across the CWA as drier mid/upper level air advects northward
from the VA Piedmont and Delmarva region. The presence of this
drier air spreading over the moist llvls with sfc dewpoints in
the upper 60s to L70s will load the sounding across central and
eastern PA for a severe weather episode this afternoon and
evening - comprised of primarily a downburst wind threat, but
even the potential for a few weak tornadoes as the 07Z RAP
indicates several areas of ML/0-1KM EHI of 1.5-2 M2/S2 moving
NNE across the Central Mtns and Susq Valley INVOF and just on
the north side of a sfc warm front that was located from near
KUNV to KMDT and KLNS.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332825 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 1 2018, 04:22 AM


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ohmy.gif

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332824 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 1 2018, 04:19 AM


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332823 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

Undertakerson
Posted on: Aug 1 2018, 04:04 AM


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QUOTE
Flash Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service State College PA
406 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...Periods of heavy to excessive rain expected Today into
Friday...

.An extensive plume of tropical moisture will combine with a warm
front over the region to focus several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms today into early Friday. Some of the thunderstorms
could train northeast over the same areas, elevating the threat
for Flash Flooding.


...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of central Pennsylvania,

* From noon EDT today through Friday morning

* Several rounds of moderate to heavy showers, and the potential
for localized training of thunderstorms across the same
locations, could lead to excessive rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches in less than an hour, and bring the threat of flash
flooding.

* Flood prone roads adjacent to streams could be eroded and washed
out by high, fast-moving water. If you encounter water over the
roads turn around and seek and alternate route. Washed out roads
and the depth of water over the roads is especially difficult to
discern at night.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332822 · Replies: · Views: 68,510

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