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#1
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,769 Joined: 17-December 12 From: Barrie Member No.: 27,345 ![]() |
Will it be like the 00Z GFS, or the 06Z. CMC a bit of a mix of the two. Definitely one to follow, and I think for many of us, how this storm pans out may determine how we feel about this winter.
00Z ![]() 06Z ![]() This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 1 2017, 03:01 PM |
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#2
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,769 Joined: 17-December 12 From: Barrie Member No.: 27,345 ![]() |
ECWMF:
![]() CMC: ![]() GEFS: ![]() |
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#3
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 914 Joined: 16-January 13 Member No.: 28,061 ![]() |
As bigmt mentioned in the winter thread the EPS has moved well south of what it showed yesterday. I am really thinking this system could be a good one for S ON on east.
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,769 Joined: 17-December 12 From: Barrie Member No.: 27,345 ![]() |
As bigmt mentioned in the winter thread the EPS has moved well south of what it showed yesterday. I am really thinking this system could be a good one for S ON on east. I think we as a forum should engage in whatever religion we follow and sacrifice whatever small animals we need to so this will go our way...couldn't bear another rain storm, or worse still, ice event. |
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,534 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
Ensembles all over the place this morning.
GEFS keep the storm way to the South and slide of the SE coast of the US CMCE still with a rainy cutter but temps not really getting above 5. EPS also with a track to our NW, but much further SE than yesterday. Nothing set in stone at all with this one. For a good laugh, check out the differences in storm track between the OP GFS and its ensembles. Winnipeg or Atlanta -------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#6
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,936 Joined: 7-September 09 From: Thornhill, Ontario Member No.: 19,154 ![]() |
I think we as a forum should engage in whatever religion we follow and sacrifice whatever small animals we need to so this will go our way...couldn't bear another rain storm, or worse still, ice event. ![]() Have we really become that desperate? Anyway, still a week or so out for things to change. Wouldn't take threats like this serious until we're a couple of days out. -------------------- Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm
First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm) Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm) Days with Snow on Ground: 85 Days with Snow Cover: 62 November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm) December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm) January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm) February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm) March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm) April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm) Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm |
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,769 Joined: 17-December 12 From: Barrie Member No.: 27,345 ![]() |
![]() Have we really become that desperate? Anyway, still a week or so out for things to change. Wouldn't take threats like this serious until we're a couple of days out. Agreed, but unless you live in Barrie, or Sauble Beach, there won't be much else to talk about in Ontario for the next while. The GEFS panels are all showing something, so is the EPS, and CMC, so I think there will be something. |
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#8
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,936 Joined: 7-September 09 From: Thornhill, Ontario Member No.: 19,154 ![]() |
Agreed, but unless you live in Barrie, or Sauble Beach, there won't be much else to talk about in Ontario for the next while. The GEFS panels are all showing something, so is the EPS, and CMC, so I think there will be something. Yup, pretty quiet over the next week though if we can hold what little snow we have now that would be awesome. This storm really will be the deciding factor in how good or bad this season has been so far. -------------------- Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm
First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm) Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm) Days with Snow on Ground: 85 Days with Snow Cover: 62 November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm) December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm) January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm) February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm) March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm) April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm) Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm |
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,844 Joined: 21-January 08 From: Alliston,Ontario Member No.: 12,822 ![]() |
Dont give up hope on this one, as the ensembles show it could end up anywhere at this point. Models will be all over the place for the next 2-3 days.
-------------------- Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( ) October: 2cm (0cm) November: 30cm (13cm) December: 70.5cm (52cm) January: 49.5cm (27cm) February: 39cm (30cm) March: 20cm (18cm) April: 33cm (19cm) SEASON TOTAL... Barrie: 244cm Alliston: 159cm -- Alliston history 2016/2017: 148cm 2015/2016 Total: 121cm 2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm 2013/2014 Total: 200cm 2012/2013: 140cm 2011/2012: 103cm 2010/2011: 213.5cm 2009/2010: 97cm 2008/2009: 232cm 2007/2008: 291cm 2006/2007: 84.8cm LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm Travis |
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#10
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,769 Joined: 17-December 12 From: Barrie Member No.: 27,345 ![]() |
12Z GFS looking good. Bit messy on the back end south of 401, but good front end. Lots of time.
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 914 Joined: 16-January 13 Member No.: 28,061 ![]() |
Better track on the 12z GFS. This system has lots of potential. I fully expect the euro and CMC to start to go in this direction as well in the next few runs. I strongly feel with the setup as it currently is this will be a storm with lots of precip on the northern (cold) side of the low and this could be a good one for the lower lakes.
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 10,169 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 ![]() |
I like the posting and discussion of ensembles!
![]() -------------------- McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.
When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;) |
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#13
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 1,930 Joined: 30-January 09 From: Grimsby, ontario, can Member No.: 17,251 ![]() |
as most are, this should be fun to watch evolve.
GFS and CMC both showing a back to back scenario. One on the 7th and followed by another on the 9th. Both also showing some significant cold and potential clippers to follow. Could get interesting ECMWF 00z was north with the first LP and second shot supressed way south. looking forward to its 12z. going to ease into this time frame however, as we all know this hasn't been fun! lol -------------------- follow me on twitter @coreywxelder
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#14
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 1,930 Joined: 30-January 09 From: Grimsby, ontario, can Member No.: 17,251 ![]() |
12Z ecmwf quite a bit further south. a decent sign
-------------------- follow me on twitter @coreywxelder
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,769 Joined: 17-December 12 From: Barrie Member No.: 27,345 ![]() |
12Z ecmwf quite a bit further south. a decent sign Looking good, lets hope it doesn't start going coastal or something. ![]() |
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#16
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,769 Joined: 17-December 12 From: Barrie Member No.: 27,345 ![]() |
12Z GEFS:
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#17
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,936 Joined: 7-September 09 From: Thornhill, Ontario Member No.: 19,154 ![]() |
I wouldn't even mind if it ended up being a smaller snowfall just as long as we could add something to our paltry snow base here. Rain would be a nightmare scenario.
-------------------- Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm
First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm) Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm) Days with Snow on Ground: 85 Days with Snow Cover: 62 November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm) December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm) January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm) February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm) March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm) April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm) Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm |
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,769 Joined: 17-December 12 From: Barrie Member No.: 27,345 ![]() |
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 10,169 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 ![]() |
Looking good, lets hope it doesn't start going coastal or something. ![]() Seriously? ![]() I was speaking with a PhD student and one of my profs today and we all agreed that the track of the 5-7 (of February) system will have important upstream impacts on this system. If the 5-7 system ends up more amplified and digging a stronger trough, then there will be more cold air in place and at least favour a more southerly track for this system. If however, the 5-7 system remains relatively flat, then expect the chances of a GLC to increase. Currently, the forecast track (from the models) for the 5-7 system is somewhere between a flat and more amplified system and hence why we see a more W-E or WSW to ENE track with more cold air available, as opposed to a GLC. Certainly a tricky time period for the models, and potentially either very exiting or heartbreaking for us ![]() ![]() -------------------- McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.
When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;) |
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#20
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,936 Joined: 7-September 09 From: Thornhill, Ontario Member No.: 19,154 ![]() |
^Good to hear there's still potential, we still have a week to track this after all. Thanks for the analysis TOWeather!
-------------------- Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm
First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm) Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm) Days with Snow on Ground: 85 Days with Snow Cover: 62 November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm) December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm) January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm) February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm) March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm) April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm) Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 23rd April 2018 - 10:24 AM |