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> Eastern Canada winter storm Feb 7-9th, Medium range potential double header
Lake effect
post Feb 1 2017, 07:53 AM
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Will it be like the 00Z GFS, or the 06Z. CMC a bit of a mix of the two. Definitely one to follow, and I think for many of us, how this storm pans out may determine how we feel about this winter.

00Z

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png ( 181.17K ) Number of downloads: 0


06Z

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27__1_.png ( 195.3K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 1 2017, 03:01 PM
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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2017, 08:11 AM
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ECWMF:

Attached File  ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8.png ( 142.44K ) Number of downloads: 0


CMC:

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png ( 180.53K ) Number of downloads: 0


GEFS:

Attached File  f180.gif ( 168.36K ) Number of downloads: 1
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 1 2017, 08:16 AM
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As bigmt mentioned in the winter thread the EPS has moved well south of what it showed yesterday. I am really thinking this system could be a good one for S ON on east.
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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2017, 08:18 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 1 2017, 08:16 AM) *
As bigmt mentioned in the winter thread the EPS has moved well south of what it showed yesterday. I am really thinking this system could be a good one for S ON on east.


I think we as a forum should engage in whatever religion we follow and sacrifice whatever small animals we need to so this will go our way...couldn't bear another rain storm, or worse still, ice event.
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MrMusic
post Feb 1 2017, 08:19 AM
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Ensembles all over the place this morning.

GEFS keep the storm way to the South and slide of the SE coast of the US
CMCE still with a rainy cutter but temps not really getting above 5.
EPS also with a track to our NW, but much further SE than yesterday.

Nothing set in stone at all with this one.
For a good laugh, check out the differences in storm track between the OP GFS and its ensembles. Winnipeg or Atlanta


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowgeek93
post Feb 1 2017, 08:54 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Feb 1 2017, 08:18 AM) *
I think we as a forum should engage in whatever religion we follow and sacrifice whatever small animals we need to so this will go our way...couldn't bear another rain storm, or worse still, ice event.

laugh.gif

Have we really become that desperate? Anyway, still a week or so out for things to change. Wouldn't take threats like this serious until we're a couple of days out.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2017, 08:58 AM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 1 2017, 08:54 AM) *
laugh.gif

Have we really become that desperate? Anyway, still a week or so out for things to change. Wouldn't take threats like this serious until we're a couple of days out.


Agreed, but unless you live in Barrie, or Sauble Beach, there won't be much else to talk about in Ontario for the next while. The GEFS panels are all showing something, so is the EPS, and CMC, so I think there will be something.
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snowgeek93
post Feb 1 2017, 09:06 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Feb 1 2017, 08:58 AM) *
Agreed, but unless you live in Barrie, or Sauble Beach, there won't be much else to talk about in Ontario for the next while. The GEFS panels are all showing something, so is the EPS, and CMC, so I think there will be something.

Yup, pretty quiet over the next week though if we can hold what little snow we have now that would be awesome. This storm really will be the deciding factor in how good or bad this season has been so far.





--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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travis3000
post Feb 1 2017, 09:38 AM
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Dont give up hope on this one, as the ensembles show it could end up anywhere at this point. Models will be all over the place for the next 2-3 days.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2017, 11:27 AM
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12Z GFS looking good. Bit messy on the back end south of 401, but good front end. Lots of time.

Attached File  gfs_asnow24_neus_24.png ( 140.79K ) Number of downloads: 2
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 1 2017, 11:29 AM
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Better track on the 12z GFS. This system has lots of potential. I fully expect the euro and CMC to start to go in this direction as well in the next few runs. I strongly feel with the setup as it currently is this will be a storm with lots of precip on the northern (cold) side of the low and this could be a good one for the lower lakes.
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Torontoweather
post Feb 1 2017, 12:50 PM
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I like the posting and discussion of ensembles! smile.gif
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elder05
post Feb 1 2017, 01:07 PM
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as most are, this should be fun to watch evolve.
GFS and CMC both showing a back to back scenario. One on the 7th and followed by another on the 9th.
Both also showing some significant cold and potential clippers to follow. Could get interesting
ECMWF 00z was north with the first LP and second shot supressed way south. looking forward to its 12z.
going to ease into this time frame however, as we all know this hasn't been fun! lol


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elder05
post Feb 1 2017, 01:57 PM
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12Z ecmwf quite a bit further south. a decent sign


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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2017, 02:37 PM
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QUOTE(elder05 @ Feb 1 2017, 01:57 PM) *
12Z ecmwf quite a bit further south. a decent sign


Looking good, lets hope it doesn't start going coastal or something.

Attached File  ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8.png ( 156.53K ) Number of downloads: 1
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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2017, 02:59 PM
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12Z GEFS:

Attached File  12Z_GEFS.png ( 119.55K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  f168.gif ( 169.36K ) Number of downloads: 5
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snowgeek93
post Feb 1 2017, 03:05 PM
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I wouldn't even mind if it ended up being a smaller snowfall just as long as we could add something to our paltry snow base here. Rain would be a nightmare scenario.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2017, 05:14 PM
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12Z EPS:

Attached File  12Z_EPS.png ( 325.27K ) Number of downloads: 1
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Torontoweather
post Feb 1 2017, 05:35 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Feb 1 2017, 02:37 PM) *
Looking good, lets hope it doesn't start going coastal or something.

Attached File  ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_8.png ( 156.53K ) Number of downloads: 1



Seriously? blink.gif I think a coastal is the least of our worries... A GLC is definitely still the track to be worried about for this one. If it does go far enough SE to ride up the coast, the precipitation field associated with this is likely to be quite large so even that kind of track would produce decent snows as far west as the southern Great Lakes.

I was speaking with a PhD student and one of my profs today and we all agreed that the track of the 5-7 (of February) system will have important upstream impacts on this system. If the 5-7 system ends up more amplified and digging a stronger trough, then there will be more cold air in place and at least favour a more southerly track for this system. If however, the 5-7 system remains relatively flat, then expect the chances of a GLC to increase.

Currently, the forecast track (from the models) for the 5-7 system is somewhere between a flat and more amplified system and hence why we see a more W-E or WSW to ENE track with more cold air available, as opposed to a GLC.

Certainly a tricky time period for the models, and potentially either very exiting or heartbreaking for us rolleyes.gif tongue.gif
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snowgeek93
post Feb 1 2017, 06:21 PM
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^Good to hear there's still potential, we still have a week to track this after all. Thanks for the analysis TOWeather!


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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