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> Eastern Canada winter storm Feb 7-9th, Medium range potential double header
snowgeek93
post Feb 2 2017, 02:35 PM
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Great analysis as always Torontoweather! An interesting system to track for sure.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 4
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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travis3000
post Feb 2 2017, 04:40 PM
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TWN has us pegged at 10-20cm next week, no rain. EC seems to agree.


Models Im looking at certainly look better than a few days ago. I will re-iterate my thoughts from Jan 31st in that the areas north and northwest of Toronto toward Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec stand a solid chance of seeing accumulating snow, as well as ice.

SW Ontario to the GTA IMO will be on the warm side of this one, with mostly rain.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 29cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Feb 2 2017, 04:52 PM
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My thoughts on the storm next week:


Attached File  Storm_Feb_7_8th.jpg ( 207.93K ) Number of downloads: 8


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 29cm (12cm)


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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JJ Snowlover
post Feb 2 2017, 05:10 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Feb 2 2017, 02:05 PM) *
A couple things before I get back to school work:



From this image, which is 12 z tomorrow, we can see large amounts of vorticty streaming down from the Arctic and the Northwest territories. This is what will essentially be carving the trough out west. A few difficulties already in association with this: that huge ridge over Alaska. All of the energy has to go over that ridge and then back down on the other side. For one thing, this is a very data sparse region and so as pointed out before, models will continue to change with every 00z and 12z update as things get more clear. As a result, we MAY actually have decent consensus with tonight's 00z runs and tomorrow's 12z runs.

Next problem.



How deep does the western trough actually get and what is the timing of it coming ashore? From the above spaghetti plots we can see reasonable DISagreement between the ensemble members in terms of how far SW the trough digs.

This will be the next key component in terms of getting model consistency and the models probably won't have a great handle on it until it comes ashore next Monday/Tuesday.

At this point, the track of the actual surface cyclone(s) still has a pretty large spread between through the central Great lakes or through the central Ohio River valley.



Only time will tell but perhaps a middle-ground or slight northern middle ground is best right now with a track somewhere through the lower lakes.
Great read TOWeather. What links on NOAA are you using to get the spaghetti plots, both jet stream/trough and low placement?
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snowgeek93
post Feb 2 2017, 06:04 PM
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Nice map Travis! Doesn't look like anything special here if that comes true though.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 4
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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Torontoweather
post Feb 2 2017, 08:48 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Feb 2 2017, 02:26 PM) *
Great analysis...really exemplifies the issues we are facing and the fact that nothing is written in stone. Will be looking at 00Z with interest.


Thanks! Yeah, 00Z should have some sampling of the energy up in the Yukon and NT that will be digging our western trough.


--------------------
McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.

When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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Torontoweather
post Feb 2 2017, 08:48 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 2 2017, 02:35 PM) *
Great analysis as always Torontoweather! An interesting system to track for sure.


Thanks very much! smile.gif


--------------------
McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.

When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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Torontoweather
post Feb 2 2017, 08:50 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Feb 2 2017, 04:52 PM) *
My thoughts on the storm next week:


Attached File  Storm_Feb_7_8th.jpg ( 207.93K ) Number of downloads: 8


Though I think it may still be a bit early for forecast maps, I think this is a realistic middle ground right now. Nice map smile.gif


--------------------
McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.

When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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Torontoweather
post Feb 2 2017, 08:58 PM
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Had another fun discussion with one of my profs today. We discussed the storm for about an hour. A lot of what a I posted a page back is what we talked about, just in more depth. Basically the lewd clipper - type system ahead of the main low will be key in determining the amount of cold air available. The more wrapped up it gets and further west, the more cold air will funnel south.

In terms of the strength and track of the main low that will be de pendent on the strength and position of the western trough and the inherent cyclonic vorticity advections (CVA).

We also discussed how the precipitation is likely to come in two waves: one associated with Warm Air Advection (WAA) out ahead of the low and the second associated with the maximum CVA. The track and strength of the storm will determine where the jackpot zone is in terms of the the areas that will cash in on snow from both rounds.

Tonight's 00Z and tomorrow's 12 z will have some sampling from Northern BC, Alaska and the NWT. After that we go back into higher uncertainty when the trough begins to dig ST off the west coast of Canada and the northern US.


--------------------
McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.

When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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Lake effect
post Feb 2 2017, 09:06 PM
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I used to go to the bar after my lectures.
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Torontoweather
post Feb 3 2017, 07:50 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Feb 2 2017, 09:06 PM) *
I used to go to the bar after my lectures.


Haha, that was our lecture! We have a 1 credit course called current weather discussion. It's literally the only forecasting course we have and it's not even full credit! All the other courses are theoretical.


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McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.

When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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Lake effect
post Feb 3 2017, 08:28 AM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Feb 3 2017, 07:50 AM) *
Haha, that was our lecture! We have a 1 credit course called current weather discussion. It's literally the only forecasting course we have and it's not even full credit! All the other courses are theoretical.


Sounds fun!
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Lake effect
post Feb 3 2017, 08:35 AM
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All the models, OP and ensemble seem to be showing the now very familiar and depressing scenario of the majority of storms for 2016/17:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png ( 193.47K ) Number of downloads: 6

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Torontoweather
post Feb 3 2017, 08:53 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Feb 3 2017, 08:35 AM) *
All the models, OP and ensemble seem to be showing the now very familiar and depressing scenario of the majority of storms for 2016/17:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png ( 193.47K ) Number of downloads: 6


00Z runs actually looked much better than yesterday's runs wink.gif


--------------------
McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.

When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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Lake effect
post Feb 3 2017, 08:57 AM
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Agreed, they are further South East, but they still need to shift a whole load more to be insuring that there isn't a repeat of the previous storms.
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JFK
post Feb 3 2017, 09:25 AM
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Here's the Euro for the storm:



J
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JFK
post Feb 3 2017, 09:27 AM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Feb 2 2017, 08:58 PM) *
Had another fun discussion with one of my profs today. We discussed the storm for about an hour.



Hi

What textbook do they assign for your low credit weather forecasting course ?

Thanks

J
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snowgeek93
post Feb 3 2017, 09:47 AM
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There needs to be a significant push south for the track of this system to avoid another disappointment here.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 2.8cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: N/A
Days with Snow on Ground: 4
Days with Snow Cover: 0

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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Torontoweather
post Feb 3 2017, 09:52 AM
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QUOTE(JFK @ Feb 3 2017, 09:27 AM) *
Hi

What textbook do they assign for your low credit weather forecasting course ?

Thanks

J


Well it's actually a graduate level course so in general they expect you to have take at least synoptic meteorology 1 and atmospheric and oceanic dynamics (i.e fluid dynamics). But the two recommended texts for synoptic meteorology are: "Synoptic - dynamic meteorology in mid latitudes: principles of kinematics and dynamics", Volume I" by Howard blue stein, and "Midlatitude atmospheric dynamics: A first course" by Jon Martin. A good beginner book would be "Meteorology Today" by Donald Ahrens, if you don't have a strong math and physics background.

Hope that helps! smile.gif

This post has been edited by Torontoweather: Feb 3 2017, 10:03 AM


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McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.

When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 3 2017, 09:53 AM
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The 00z euro tracks the system a fair bit more SE. I can't see how there is such a lack of cold holding on. With that kind of track it should be able to keep the 850 and SFC temps below freezing.

There continues to also be the chance for ZR/sleet as the GFS has shown for the last few runs for around the GTA.

I would think even is we had the warmer solution ottawa should do good with this storm.
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