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> Clipper 10/11th Feb, Decent looking clipper short range
Lake effect
post Feb 8 2017, 07:48 AM
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This is looking better every day on the GFS. They have been rock solid with this, as were they with yesterdays storm, so feel this one may well lift our spirits:

Friday evening:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png ( 186.43K ) Number of downloads: 3


Total snowfall...looks like a solid 5-10 cms for many in southern and central Ontario.

Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_13.png ( 147.94K ) Number of downloads: 8
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Lake effect
post Feb 8 2017, 07:52 AM
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The CMC is even more amped, but comes in slightly later and has a tighter band of snow:

Saturday morning:

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png ( 173.89K ) Number of downloads: 2


Total snowfall...good 15cms for many, but further north than GFS.

Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_16.png ( 145.06K ) Number of downloads: 6


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Lake effect
post Feb 8 2017, 07:57 AM
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The UK in on the fun too (the free Euro doesn't tell us much):

Attached File  P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif ( 214.45K ) Number of downloads: 3
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Lake effect
post Feb 8 2017, 08:02 AM
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Ensembles:

Attached File  f72.gif ( 155.25K ) Number of downloads: 4


Attached File  gfs_ens_z500_mslp_us_14.png ( 116.42K ) Number of downloads: 2


Attached File  ecmwf_ens_z500_mslp_us_4.png ( 126.9K ) Number of downloads: 2
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snowgeek93
post Feb 8 2017, 09:55 AM
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Such a waste of snowfall as it's all gonna melt either Saturday or Sunday.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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plowguy
post Feb 8 2017, 10:41 AM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 8 2017, 09:55 AM) *
Such a waste of snowfall as it's all gonna melt either Saturday or Sunday.

Ahh, I'm for more snow. Not sure about this one for me. I seem to be on the outer edge and it looks to me that what snow does fall will be during the afternoon. As cold as it is...not sure it will stick to the pavement.
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newfiebrit
post Feb 8 2017, 11:08 AM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 8 2017, 11:25 AM) *
Such a waste of snowfall as it's all gonna melt either Saturday or Sunday.


Snow always melts, I find even the more fleeting storms are better than no snow or worse still...rain.
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travis3000
post Feb 8 2017, 11:10 AM
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What concerns me is that EC has us pegged at 8C on Saturday, and 3C on Sunday.

I trust the GFS over EC, as that model has been pretty bang on. My guess is that this clipper is coming in Friday night when we still have the cold. Then things warm up for the weekend, GFS is showing a more muted warmup (1-3C) , with another low pressure Sunday bringing rain and snow. Should be interesting to see what ends up happening.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Feb 8 2017, 11:40 AM


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Feb 8 2017, 11:12 AM
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Here's the total snowfall from the brand new 12z GFS run

Attached File  gfs_asnow24_neus_8.png ( 126.46K ) Number of downloads: 5


And total snowfall from the Sunday low pressure system:


Attached File  gfs_asnow24_neus_17.png ( 139.21K ) Number of downloads: 7



Based on this run of the GFS, the Barrie area could pick up 20cm of fresh snow between these two low pressure systems over the course of this weekend. EC disagrees as they have the weekend balmy and 8C, but my guess says EC will come down with their temps. GFS has been on point all winter, so my bets are with them.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Feb 8 2017, 11:14 AM


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Feb 8 2017, 11:35 AM
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New 12z CMC data for the clipper:


Attached File  gem_asnow24_neus_10.png ( 122.42K ) Number of downloads: 3



Looks like a widespread 6-10cm across the Toronto Area north up to Barrie. Bullseye on this run is North Simcoe County (Midland, Orillia), and then of course extreme N Ontario north of Sudbury.

SW Ontario misses out on the fun with just a trace to a couple CM's.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Feb 8 2017, 11:39 AM
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I will also note that there is a big difference in 2m air temperature between the GFS and Canadian models.

The GFS maxes the daytime highs on Saturday and Sunday around 1-3C in the Golden Horseshoe, whereas the CMC has highs Saturday around 7-9C. This must be where EC is getting their data from. Makes sense now. My bets are with the GFS, colder weekend in store, highs only getting into the low single digits.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowgeek93
post Feb 8 2017, 11:39 AM
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QUOTE(newfiebrit @ Feb 8 2017, 11:08 AM) *
Snow always melts, I find even the more fleeting storms are better than no snow or worse still...rain.

But like what's the point? If its all gonna be gone the next day then it's like nothing even happened. We're exactly back to where we started just with more snow added to our totals. Even holding it for a few days to a week would be nice unless were getting lots of snow but none of that is happening atm.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 8 2017, 12:14 PM
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This ones looking good ATM. A fairly quick 5-10cm for the area. GEM now on board as well so looks decent. Have to watch for any last minuet shifts north with it as the NAM is showing though.









This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Feb 8 2017, 12:29 PM
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Lake effect
post Feb 8 2017, 12:26 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 8 2017, 12:14 PM) *
This ones looking good ATM. A fairly quick 5-10cm for the area. GEM now on board as well so looks decent. Have to watch for any last minuet shifts north with it as the NAM is showing though.


This far out the NAM is not so good, 48 hours away it starts to nail it. The GFS has been the star performer most of the time this year.
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winter48
post Feb 8 2017, 12:27 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 8 2017, 12:14 PM) *
This ones looking good ATM. A fairly quick 5-10cm for the area. GEM now on board as well so looks decent. Have to watch for any last minuet shifts north with it as the NAM is showing though.

Is there still a clipper possibility for next week? unsure.gif
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 8 2017, 12:34 PM
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QUOTE(winter48 @ Feb 8 2017, 12:27 PM) *
Is there still a clipper possibility for next week? unsure.gif

I don't remember there really being a clipper being mentioned for next week to be honest. There's a chance for a system impacting from the south on the 12th-13th but looks like mixing is a better chance with that one.
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 8 2017, 12:43 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Feb 8 2017, 12:26 PM) *
This far out the NAM is not so good, 48 hours away it starts to nail it. The GFS has been the star performer most of the time this year.

I guess to a certain extent that's true, but the NAM usually does well with track placement of northern stream energy. Having said that I wouldn't be surprised to see it tick a bit south of what it shows now.
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winter48
post Feb 8 2017, 01:06 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 8 2017, 12:34 PM) *
I don't remember there really being a clipper being mentioned for next week to be honest. There's a chance for a system impacting from the south on the 12th-13th but looks like mixing is a better chance with that one.

Oh then I must have thought this one on Friday was for next week for some strange reason. My bad!
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 8 2017, 04:44 PM
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18z nam looks like it came a bit more south this run. Better run than 12z.
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 9 2017, 09:36 AM
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Have to watch how models are picking up on a band of heavier snow right into the GTA with this system. GFS and RGEM both have it. NAM is just slightly east with the heavier band but still affects eastern GTA. Could be some surprise accumulation numbers if it verifies.
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