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> Eastern Canada Winter Storm: March 13-16, Medium Range Forecasts
MrMusic
post Mar 10 2017, 01:03 PM
Post #41




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Here's the ratio map....basically in the 18:1-22:1 range for all of us





--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowgeek93
post Mar 10 2017, 01:05 PM
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I was looking forward to maybe seeing nothing more than sun here but those accumulation maps look incredible if they were to verify.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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MrMusic
post Mar 10 2017, 01:06 PM
Post #43




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The GFS ensembles seem to agree with the OP on that last run.

The ensembles showing anywhere from .5 inches of QPF for northern GTA regions to .8 inches in Niagara.





--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Mar 10 2017, 01:07 PM
Post #44




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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Mar 10 2017, 01:05 PM) *
I was looking forward to maybe seeing nothing more than sun here but those accumulation maps look incredible if they were to verify.


I hurt my lower back at the gym this week....not sure how I'll manage to shovel if by some miracle this happens. haha

Here are the recent trends north from the GFS

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2208222

EDIT:
And the precip trend as it has trended NW on the GFS. Would be nice to see the Euro and CMC have something even remotely similar. Lol

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2208274


This post has been edited by MrMusic: Mar 10 2017, 01:10 PM


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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travis3000
post Mar 10 2017, 01:17 PM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Mar 10 2017, 01:07 PM) *
I hurt my lower back at the gym this week....not sure how I'll manage to shovel if by some miracle this happens. haha

Here are the recent trends north from the GFS

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2208222

EDIT:
And the precip trend as it has trended NW on the GFS. Would be nice to see the Euro and CMC have something even remotely similar. Lol

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2208274


CMC is in a total different ballpark. GFS and UKET showing somewhat similar conditions. Lets see what King Euro has to say. Should be out soon.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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MrMusic
post Mar 10 2017, 01:19 PM
Post #46




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new Euro for Monday morning:



And then by Tuesday morning:




Still much further east than GFS.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowgeek93
post Mar 10 2017, 01:30 PM
Post #47




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I'm staying neutral on this one for the time being. Looks amazing for those on the Eastern Seaboard though.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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MrMusic
post Mar 10 2017, 01:31 PM
Post #48




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new Euro here vs. the old Euro .

The 00z gave most of us nothing....new 12z gives about 10-15cm at 10:1, so more like 20-25 if the ratios are the same as GFS. Seems to amp up the primary low coming south of the Great Lakes before transferring to the coast.
And wow, if the Euro is correct, the big cities on the coast get crushed!

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2208639

This post has been edited by MrMusic: Mar 10 2017, 01:31 PM


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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shane o mac
post Mar 10 2017, 02:48 PM
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Looks like for some rain up this area perhaps some strong winds smile.gif
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snowgeek93
post Mar 10 2017, 03:04 PM
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Interesting storm! If we can get some more pushes west then we're in the game.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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MrMusic
post Mar 10 2017, 04:58 PM
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Looks like it's the GFS and UKIE vs. Euro and CMC


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Mar 10 2017, 05:08 PM
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newest 18z GFS. Continues with the same theme

EDIT: total snowfall. 30cm from Hamilton to Long Point. Up to 45cm towards Ft Erie/Buffalo

20-30cm Toronto-Burlington.





This post has been edited by MrMusic: Mar 10 2017, 05:12 PM


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Jeremy404
post Mar 10 2017, 05:12 PM
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What's Kuchera ratio?
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JJ Snowlover
post Mar 10 2017, 05:17 PM
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I think eastern shifts are still in the cards. I wouldn't lock anything in yet. Take those GFS runs with a grain of salt.
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MrMusic
post Mar 10 2017, 05:19 PM
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QUOTE(Jeremy404 @ Mar 10 2017, 05:12 PM) *
What's Kuchera ratio?


it factors in the ratios due to the temperature.
Due to our cold temps on these GFS runs we get snowfall higher than the typical 10:1

Here is total QPF


If ratios were 10:1 it would equate to 5-10 inches for the Golden Horseshoe. But since our rates are higher than 10:1 we get the totals shown on the Kuchera map.



--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Mar 10 2017, 05:20 PM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Mar 10 2017, 05:17 PM) *
I think eastern shifts are still in the cards. I wouldn't lock anything in yet. Take those GFS runs with a grain of salt.


I agree....I could see something a bit west of the Euro ending up as reality. That banana high is pretty darn strong.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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snowgeek93
post Mar 10 2017, 05:29 PM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Mar 10 2017, 05:08 PM) *
newest 18z GFS. Continues with the same theme

EDIT: total snowfall. 30cm from Hamilton to Long Point. Up to 45cm towards Ft Erie/Buffalo

20-30cm Toronto-Burlington.


laugh.gif

A grain of salt and then some.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm

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akula
post Mar 10 2017, 05:49 PM
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even if we cut the Kuchera ratio map in half , still a good 6-8" storm for a lot of us in Southern Ontario!
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cards101
post Mar 10 2017, 05:51 PM
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Any idea If conditions are set up for some lake effect for this storm for west end of Lake Ontario with those cold N-NE winds, should be right?
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travis3000
post Mar 10 2017, 06:22 PM
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QUOTE(Jeremy404 @ Mar 10 2017, 05:12 PM) *
What's Kuchera ratio?


In my experience, the Kuchera ratio means well, especially for snow lovers but the numbers usually come in too high. Subtract about 20-30% from all those figures

This post has been edited by travis3000: Mar 10 2017, 06:29 PM


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 9cm
April: 13cm
TOTAL: 148cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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