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> July 4-5 MidAtl/NE Summer Storm
phillyfan
post Jul 1 2016, 07:50 PM
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Figured I'd open another thread for this upcoming Tuesday MCS.

18z NAM - That's as far north as it gets on that run


12z NAM - Was a little more south then 18z was


18z GFS - Only has this


HPC has bumped the precip a bit more north:
Attached Image


This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jul 2 2016, 03:30 PM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19

Pea Size Hail: 2/25
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phillyfan
post Jul 1 2016, 10:04 PM
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0z nam:


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19

Pea Size Hail: 2/25
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 1 2016, 11:51 PM
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It looks as though it may be a two wave event. A piece of energy comes in with showers and storms monday night into tuesday morning and another piece tuesday afternoon and evening. Regardless if there is a separation in the energy with this system the cut-off and path of this system will be sharp. The location of how far north the front returns is the key to this event whether southern PA or MD receives the majority of the rains. As for severe weather Im not sure how it will set up probably the best threat would be monday night into tuesday, mainly wind threat but things will probably change as we move closer.


--------------------
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AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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phillyfan
post Jul 2 2016, 12:04 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 2 2016, 12:51 AM) *
It looks as though it may be a two wave event. A piece of energy comes in with showers and storms monday night into tuesday morning and another piece tuesday afternoon and evening. Regardless if there is a separation in the energy with this system the cut-off and path of this system will be sharp. The location of how far north the front returns is the key to this event whether southern PA or MD receives the majority of the rains. As for severe weather Im not sure how it will set up probably the best threat would be monday night into tuesday, mainly wind threat but things will probably change as we move closer.


I'll wait to expand the date part. I'm having flashbacks to the system back in June that was supposed to come through and went way south.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19

Pea Size Hail: 2/25
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 2 2016, 12:17 AM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 2 2016, 01:04 AM) *
I'll wait to expand the date part. I'm having flashbacks to the system back in June that was supposed to come through and went way south.


This blocking pattern that keeps setting up for the NE is really doing work on keeping things shoved south. I mean you can see it in the departures of rain shown by CTP the other day. Overall can not really complain as it has not been terribly hot but that looks to change in the coming weeks as we start to switch up the pattern a bit or at least move it back east a bit instead of having ridging, for the most part, out west and troughiness in the GL region it should allow for some action and heat.

It is still early but the way this front seems to be setting up not much movement north or south may be expected as upper flow may be parallel to the front. Again a couple days from now and minor changes could mean a big change.


--------------------
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Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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phillyfan
post Jul 2 2016, 08:43 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 2 2016, 01:17 AM) *
This blocking pattern that keeps setting up for the NE is really doing work on keeping things shoved south. I mean you can see it in the departures of rain shown by CTP the other day. Overall can not really complain as it has not been terribly hot but that looks to change in the coming weeks as we start to switch up the pattern a bit or at least move it back east a bit instead of having ridging, for the most part, out west and troughiness in the GL region it should allow for some action and heat.

It is still early but the way this front seems to be setting up not much movement north or south may be expected as upper flow may be parallel to the front. Again a couple days from now and minor changes could mean a big change.

HPC push the precip south now on the 5 day:
Attached Image


6z NAM brings it just north of the mason dixon line on the 4th into the 5th.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jul 2 2016, 08:43 AM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19

Pea Size Hail: 2/25
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phillyfan
post Jul 2 2016, 03:30 PM
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Hey a push back north again:
Attached Image


I think I'll change the dates to include the 4th now:
QUOTE
Independence Day
A chance of showers, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Monday Night
A chance of showers before 11pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 11pm and 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Tuesday
A chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19

Pea Size Hail: 2/25
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 2 2016, 10:16 PM
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Already looks to be further south looks more of central MO so far then northern MO as was shown yesterday. Which may translate eastward to most of MD and northern VA. I wouldnt be surprised if we manage to get something in southern pa but the heaviest may seem to be south of the area. I think it would be better anyway to get widespread steady rain instead of the thin banding of heavy downpours that EURO, GFS, and even mesoscale models show.


--------------------
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Undertakerson
post Jul 3 2016, 04:36 AM
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CFI - it's not just for winter time systems

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Not a lot of change to this package.

Forecast issues continue to center around potential for heavy
rain on Monday the 4th.

As was the case on Thursday, June 16th, models seem to track
the sfc low too far north later Monday into Tuesday. In that
case, system was well to the south.
Other issue is to try to
understand how models form 2 low pressure systems with this
system later Monday into Tue. Think models have convective
feedback issues.
Some models seem too far north with QPF and too
heavy. 00Z EC showed very heavy amounts on the MD...PA border.
12Z EC not that heavy, but the idea is that the heaviest amounts
would be from far southern PA southward. I did not change much,
mainly minor adjustments and more detail, given it is a big
holiday.


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jul 3 2016, 04:37 AM
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phillyfan
post Jul 3 2016, 09:07 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 3 2016, 05:36 AM) *
CFI - it's not just for winter time systems

This was pushed more north though:
Attached Image


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19

Pea Size Hail: 2/25
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NorEaster07
post Jul 3 2016, 10:25 AM
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http://www.weather.gov/images/erh/gis/MA_QPF.png

Attached Image

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NorEaster07
post Jul 3 2016, 10:46 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 3 2016, 05:36 AM) *
CFI - it's not just for winter time systems


I just clicked this link without thinking to see the projected storm track. laugh.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 3 2016, 10:55 AM
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JDClapper
post Jul 3 2016, 11:58 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jul 3 2016, 11:55 AM) *


Looks like a sweet spot for good snows in IPT land. laugh.gif

#moreDroughtPlease


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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JDClapper
post Jul 3 2016, 05:11 PM
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qpf through 2am Wed

18z 4k NAM
Attached Image


18z 12k NAM
Attached Image


18z GFS
Attached Image


12z CMC
Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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NorEaster07
post Jul 3 2016, 05:26 PM
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http://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

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rtcemc
post Jul 3 2016, 05:42 PM
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Haven't been tuning in much cuz of holiday weekend, but had 2 Philly TV forecasts on (I know, I know), and they both had almost all of precip staying around the MD border. Then had the temps blowing up starting Tues with the sun and the BH setting in.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 3 2016, 11:11 PM
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Still feeling this will end up further south overall wouldnt be surprised if a batch of steady rains come through early afternoon into the evening tomorrow but further south convective activity will give some decent rains.


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Millersville University


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NorEaster07
post Jul 4 2016, 05:51 AM
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Looks like NYC Metro area is the common bullseye area. Ironically that's where the drought is. lol

MA looks like they could miss out on the rains. Might be just scattered stuff or drizzle only.

Attached Image
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phillyfan
post Jul 4 2016, 09:05 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 4 2016, 12:11 AM) *
Still feeling this will end up further south overall wouldnt be surprised if a batch of steady rains come through early afternoon into the evening tomorrow but further south convective activity will give some decent rains.

It better not go south we really need the rain here.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19

Pea Size Hail: 2/25
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