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> Apr 8-10 MidAtl/NE Shocker Storm FORECASTS, The irony of all ironies?
monsoonevans
post Mar 25 2008, 10:59 AM
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As we begin to pack up the car and head back to our regularly scheduled lives, we may have to turn around and unload the gear for one last surprise. The long range GFS is showing a potential snow event for the snow starved I-95 during the end of the first week of April. While the reliability of this model at this range is questionable at best, the ingredients for a winter storm are in place with the cold air obviously being the Big question mark.
These are the multiple GFS models for the period.
Crazier things have happened??!!?!?

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Removed_Member_OHweather2_*
post Mar 25 2008, 11:13 AM
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While one crazy run of the GFS may have indicated some snow, the 0z GFS ensemble means for this time period don't indicate a good pattern for a snowstorm:

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They show a split jet stream with ridging over the NE, perhaps a warmer weather pattern?
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cyclone31
post Mar 25 2008, 11:17 AM
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QUOTE(OHweather2 @ Mar 25 2008, 12:13 PM) *
While one crazy run of the GFS may have indicated some snow, the 0z GFS ensemble means for this time period don't indicate a good pattern for a snowstorm:

Attached Image

They show a split jet stream with ridging over the NE, perhaps a warmer weather pattern?


Would love to see it but I'm not jumping on board smile.gif

This post has been edited by cyclone31: Mar 25 2008, 11:17 AM


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Removed_Member_ilovesnow2007_*
post Mar 25 2008, 11:45 AM
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I am not sure what ensembles he is referencing but the 00z GFS ensembles for this time range continue to show a zonal flow from west to east...


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12 Z ensembles are just starting to update now!

However, 850s off of the 00z run are quite warm during this period!

I really think this is too late in the season in all honesty!
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Removed_Member_OHweather2_*
post Mar 25 2008, 11:54 AM
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QUOTE(ilovesnow2007 @ Mar 25 2008, 11:45 AM) *
I am not sure what ensembles he is referencing but the 00z GFS ensembles for this time range continue to show a zonal flow from west to east...


Attached Image

12 Z ensembles are just starting to update now!

However, 850s off of the 00z run are quite warm during this period!

I really think this is too late in the season in all honesty!

I am refrencing these ensembles: http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfsensemble.html And the map I posted was the 500MB height anamoly map. On those maps the blues (or negative anomalies) show troughiness and the greens/yellows (or possitive anomolies) show ridging. The reason I said it was a split flow was because of the big ridge over most of the US and troughiness on either side. Generally the jet stream(s) reside somewhere between the troughiness and the ridging, and I drew on the appoximent possition of the jet stream on the map posted above. When we're looking at a storm possiblity more than 5-7 days out I look at thses maps instead of surface/850MB maps because they give you an idea of what the weather pattern will be and if it is conducive for a storm in the area in question. And yes I think it may just be too late in the season, but I hope it isn't!

This post has been edited by OHweather2: Mar 25 2008, 11:56 AM
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Removed_Member_ilovesnow2007_*
post Mar 25 2008, 12:09 PM
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All really mute actually at this point because the 12 Z does not show anything in the time period mentioned...however, irregardless I think it is too late in the season for any snows outside of Northern New england!
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stormchaos88
post Mar 25 2008, 12:56 PM
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I agree with ilovesnow2007. It's too late in the season to get snow across southern New England and I-95 corridor, not impossible but highly unlikely at this point.


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post Mar 25 2008, 01:09 PM
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Didn't we learn our lesson already?!?!?
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monsoonevans
post Mar 25 2008, 01:18 PM
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This possibility is obviously a stretch but has some of the ingredients needed to materialize. The opportunities are running thin now so it bares watching this one. I think its safe to say that this would be the very last chance until next season.
Negatively tilted trough looks likely as does a series of strong s/w's forming in the Northern Pacific. The ECWMF has the potential energy crossing Anchorage Alaska on the 4th that would follow a favorable jet stream that looks to be in place (+PNA). Thats the farthest out this model goes though.
We just need to watch were the core northern canadian artic air is at this period as we will need that to be in the perfect position to get drawn into the jet.


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WeatherMatrix
post Mar 25 2008, 02:09 PM
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For the record, this storm was not on the 18Z yesterday, appeared on the 00Z and 06Z but has disappeared from the 12Z GFS.


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Where is MY SNOW...
post Mar 25 2008, 02:30 PM
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Snow, LOL


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Snowfall in Warren, NJ
December 26-27 "Post Christmas Blizzard": 14 inches
January 7 "Norlun Trough": 1.5 inches
January 8 "Coastal": 1.5 inches
January 17-18 "Snow to Ice to Rain": 2 inches snow to freezing rain to rain
January 21 "Mini-storm": 4.5 inches
January 26-27 Nor'Easter: 16 inches
February 1 "Groundhog Day Storm Part 1" 1 inch snow, 1/10 inch ice
February 2 "Groundhog Day Storm Part 2" 3/10 inch freezing rain
February 21 "Wave 1" 1.5 inches snow
Subtotal of 42 inches

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_AR_
post Mar 25 2008, 02:33 PM
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Welcome to GFS Fantasy Land


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twister4999
post Mar 25 2008, 06:29 PM
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No way...



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post Mar 25 2008, 07:43 PM
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Blizzard........... But my peeps are waiting confirmation
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tick629
post Mar 26 2008, 08:03 AM
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keep this on topic with this storm...winter is over posts need to go in the winter is over thread


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monsoonevans
post Mar 26 2008, 08:58 AM
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I'm just going to continue to monitor this couple of times a day until we get within 7 days when I will look more closely. 12Z GFS still has this thing as shown on the critical thickness map and total accum precipe for the period.

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Mr.Sea
post Mar 26 2008, 02:12 PM
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12z GFS barely has the storm, and has the coast warm, so once again it is rain for NYC and Long Island.
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WeatherMatrix
post Mar 26 2008, 02:34 PM
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As far as winter precip goes, I've not seen this storm for over 24 hours on GFS so I vote we close this thread or merge it with the April 4-6 thread, or rename this one Apr. 9-10th. PM me with your vote.


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VArebelTY
post Mar 26 2008, 05:00 PM
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QUOTE(Mr.Sea @ Mar 26 2008, 03:12 PM) *


12z GFS barely has the storm, and has the coast warm, so once again it is rain for NYC and Long Island.

models are almost useless this far ahead except for looking at long term trends, storm track and cold air masses can be hundreds of miles off at this point. after all it is 9 10 days away. i dont think there is a model out there that can acurately give a storm track more than a few days. It has a better idea once the ingredients of the storm come on shore up until then its all speculation.


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snowfall total for Orange, VA this winter= 8 inches
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VArebelTY
post Mar 26 2008, 05:02 PM
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QUOTE(MDsnowbunny @ Mar 26 2008, 02:31 PM) *
Soooooooooo - what do you know about this storm? There is snow on the forecast for MD at this point -interesting! I think it was 2002 the last time it snowed in April here.

We had 5 inches in april of last year here about 100 miles south of you in VA.


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Tyler 23 student and electrician. From Orange VA located in North Central Virginia in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains one of the most beautiful places on the east coast.

snowfall total for Orange, VA this winter= 8 inches
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