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> Jan. 12-14 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Cogitation: Long Range [8-15 days out] FORECAST
grace
post Jan 10 2018, 12:33 AM
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Someone needs to post 0z GEFS ensembles...not where I can post but majority of members are Further west than GFS OP with the precip shield
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grace
post Jan 10 2018, 12:35 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jan 9 2018, 11:33 PM) *
Someone needs to post 0z GEFS ensembles...not where I can post but majority of members are Further west than GFS OP with the precip shield



NW Ohio folks groaning about 0z OP's would be quiet happy with the GEFS Ensembles
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cary67
post Jan 10 2018, 12:38 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jan 9 2018, 10:03 PM) *
3 weeks shy of 8 years on the forum I bid my adieu.

I thank you all for the knowledge and explanations given to help me understand more of what goes into the weather, and more importantly, how much needs to be ignored in order to understand the forecasting of the weather.

I'll always linger as a guest more than likely, but the fun that once used to be has been all but lost for me. "Changing of the Times" or "Times are Changing" who knows, just feel the need to step aside.

Just an explanation of where I went rather than a lingering question of what happened to me laugh.gif

Salutations to all, been a fun ride.

Regret to see you will be a silent visitor to the boards. Enjoyed having another poster from Illinois. Best of luck to you and hope you rejoin our discussions especially if a big dog does hit our areas.
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ingyball
post Jan 10 2018, 12:41 AM
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I'm getting kind of concerned about the potential for power outages here, if the models continue the snow/ice threat on tomorrow's 12z I will need to order some heavier blankets, my little studio is partially underground and I worry it would get quite cold. If the models keep shifting east though we might not get anything(which would be a bummer because I hate dry cold almost as much as ice.) If the models take a significant jump west the we could get all rain, which wouldn't be the worst outcome.
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ohiocat5908
post Jan 10 2018, 12:41 AM
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GEFS member low locations


Battle of amped vs much less so.
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jasonus03
post Jan 10 2018, 12:45 AM
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GEFS precip accumulation (liquid equivalent). Assume 10:1 ratio. Also unsure how much of this is sleet/freezing rain.

This post has been edited by jasonus03: Jan 10 2018, 12:50 AM
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grace
post Jan 10 2018, 12:50 AM
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0z GEFS clusters are interesting. I'll post in a few minutes

EDIT...I meant GGEM

This post has been edited by grace: Jan 10 2018, 12:57 AM
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jasonus03
post Jan 10 2018, 01:07 AM
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Euro is running. Can see the general path I think. South central AR to West VA.

This post has been edited by jasonus03: Jan 10 2018, 01:09 AM
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snowlover2
post Jan 10 2018, 01:06 AM
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0z Euro stays in the east camp.


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snowlover2
post Jan 10 2018, 01:09 AM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jan 10 2018, 01:06 AM) *
0z Euro stays in the east camp.

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 10 2018, 01:09 AM
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Oooooh this is gonna be a good run for Ohio. Look at all that snow! wub.gif



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 10 2018, 01:10 AM


--------------------
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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

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Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Juniorrr
post Jan 10 2018, 01:12 AM
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Yea its east but there is a clear change in the 0z models producing a weaker system overall it seems. Tomorrow would be a good time for a west trend laugh.gif no more east...
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ohiocat5908
post Jan 10 2018, 01:13 AM
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EURO is quite a bit stronger. Sub 996 vs 1001 of the GFS. Maybe slightly west of GFS, but only 25-50 miles or so.

This post has been edited by ohiocat5908: Jan 10 2018, 01:14 AM
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snowlover2
post Jan 10 2018, 01:14 AM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 10 2018, 01:12 AM) *
Yea its east but there is a clear change in the 0z models producing a weaker system overall it seems. Tomorrow would be a good time for a west trend laugh.gif no more east...

Still will have lots of moisture to work with.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 10 2018, 01:14 AM
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A little underwhelming... perhaps a portion of all that precip was sleet or ice.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 6/17/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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CentralIllinois
post Jan 10 2018, 01:17 AM
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well, The trend all winter long has been for weaker storms hopefully for everyone that's still in it that isn't the case this time!


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Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
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CentralIllinois
post Jan 10 2018, 01:18 AM
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zoomed in 00z EURO for the Ohio folks!
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--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


Note to Accuweather.com....Please give us a dedicated video blogger for the Plains/MW/OV/GL area!
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Juniorrr
post Jan 10 2018, 01:23 AM
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From a beast in IN to a meh 4-8"er. I'll pass... after tomorrow's 0z smile.gif
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NWOhioChaser
post Jan 10 2018, 01:28 AM
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Eh, bit looking so hot for Toledo and SE Michigan right now. Let's see if trends continue.

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snowlover2
post Jan 10 2018, 01:29 AM
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Euro going to give me a headache. 12z had a low in N VA and the heaviest snow was back in E IN/NW OH. Now 0z has a low over WV and somehow the heavier snows are in C/E OH? Makes no sense.


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