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> March 12 MidAtl/NE Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Slight - Forecasts & OBS
Ryan Duff
post Mar 11 2014, 02:06 PM
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QUOTE
SPC AC 111710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...

...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY EMERGING
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD
AND REACH THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE BEGINNING OF D2/WED. AS IT DOES
SO...IT WILL PHASE WITH A NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIGGING SSEWD
FROM ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. THE RESULTING PERTURBATION WILL BE A
POTENT...HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ADVANCE EWD
ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES. HIGH-MAGNITUDE...LARGE-SCALE UPWARD
MOTION PRECEDING THIS TROUGH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE ATTENDANT TO A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND
INTENSIFYING LLJ OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT THE ENEWD/NEWD DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF A FRONTAL
CYCLONE FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE
SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW OF THE
CYCLONE WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND MID
ATLANTIC...WHILE STRONG POLEWARD MASS FLUXES PRECEDING THE CYCLONE
ALLOW A WARM SECTOR TO EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF ERN PA AND NJ.

...THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
THE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE -- E.G. MLCAPE AROUND 300-600 J/KG -- DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE COMBINATION OF /1/ AT
LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION IN SOME AREAS IN THE WAKE OF
EARLY-DAY...WARM-ADVECTION-ENCOURAGED CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND /2/ STRONG NWD FLUXES OF RELATIVELY
HIGHER THETA-E AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM/BUOYANT SECTOR WILL BE
MODULATED TO SOME EXTENT BY DOWNWARD-DIRECTED SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES
WITHIN THE SFC LAYER ATOP THE ONGOING SNOW PACK IN NRN PA AND NRN
NJ. REGARDLESS...DIURNALLY ENHANCED BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS IT ADVANCES FROM SERN OHIO/ERN KY INTO WRN WV AND WRN PA BY
MID-DAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY SPREADING EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-90-KT H5 JET CORE OVERSPREADING THE
WARM SECTOR BUOYANCY ABOVE A SWLY LLJ INCREASING TO 50-60 KT...WIND
PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED...ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED INTO FAST MOVING
QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES INVOF THE COLD
FRONT. STRONG CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH THIS POTENTIAL BOLSTERED BY
THE STRONG CROSS-FRONTAL...SYNOPTIC PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- E.G. AROUND 30-40 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK
SHEAR -- WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES
TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE OF
WV INTO NRN VA...CNTRL/WRN MD...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND
S-CNTRL PA...WHICH MAY HAVE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY TO EXPERIENCE
PRE-FRONTAL INSOLATION. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD SVR-WIND EVENT TO TAKE PLACE IN THESE AREAS...POTENTIALLY
WARRANTING HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
HOWEVER...SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEGREE OF
INSOLATION-ENHANCED STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FOR WHICH
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

..COHEN.. 03/11/2014


This post has been edited by Ryan Duff: Mar 11 2014, 02:20 PM


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BtownWxWatcher
post Mar 11 2014, 02:16 PM
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The front will pack a punch, 45-55mph gusts are possible along with the Thunder and isolated Tornado


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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 11 2014, 02:23 PM
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Were slated to go from 60F to 12F on the ridge top. I'm betting NOAA will at least issue a wind advisory for places above 1000'. Should be a wild ride tomorrow.


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phillyfan
post Mar 11 2014, 03:34 PM
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Might as well kick off the severe weather season a bit early this year. Middle of my backyard is still 10" deep with snow. Hoping for no flooding.


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Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18, 4/2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Winter Storm Warning: 2/17, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Flood Watch 2/10-11
High Wind Watch: 3/2-3
High Wind Warning: 3/2-3, 4/4

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5"
2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7"
3/7: 1.5", 3/12-13: 2", 3/21: 12", 3/25: 1.5"
4/2: 4"

Total: 45.5"

Average Snowfall: 32"
2016-2017: 25.5” (-6.5” from avg.)
2015-2016: 41” (+9” from avg.)
2014-2015: 48” (+16” from avg.)
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25” from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
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2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
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WEATHERFAN100
post Mar 11 2014, 03:50 PM
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This caught me with a bit of a surprise. I don't think this will be any huge threat, but isolated locally damaging winds seem likely. I can see a severe thunderstorm watch, possibly even a tornado watch being issued for the area, even with it being a small chance.


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Undertakerson
post Mar 11 2014, 03:55 PM
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Pretty extensive coverage area for the HWO put out by CTP

QUOTE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
320 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

PAZ019-025>028-034>036-049>053-056>059-063>066-121930-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-
FRANKLIN-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-
SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
320 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A DYNAMIC LATE-SEASON WINTER STORM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD BEING STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 BELOW ZERO. THE RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP MAY
PRODUCE FLASH FREEZES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ICE JAMS AND MINOR
FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?...ok#.Ux93pOl3tdg


Latest NAM is picking up on this threat the most ATTM from what I've seen.
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Undertakerson
post Mar 11 2014, 04:01 PM
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Latest HiRes NAM looks like DC to the south and my region immediate north are under the deepest convection.
I'll have to look at the SKEW to see for sure though.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/rad29.html


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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 11 2014, 05:11 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 11 2014, 06:01 PM) *
Latest HiRes NAM looks like DC to the south and my region immediate north are under the deepest convection.
I'll have to look at the SKEW to see for sure though.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/rad29.html


Attached Image


Definitely like the idea of some wind reports of 30-40mph in some of the strongest storms. may exceed 50 in a few spots also depending on how much instability we can get going. Warm front is dragging northward, virtually stationary.

I say the northward extent of severe potential will be up to about allentown region. See how much this warm front is able to move.

I like the wind potential behind this also definitely like some wind advisories to come out for the region later tonight or tomorrow morning.


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B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


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Ryan Duff
post Mar 11 2014, 05:40 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 11 2014, 06:11 PM) *
Definitely like the idea of some wind reports of 30-40mph in some of the strongest storms. may exceed 50 in a few spots also depending on how much instability we can get going. Warm front is dragging northward, virtually stationary.

I say the northward extent of severe potential will be up to about allentown region. See how much this warm front is able to move.

I like the wind potential behind this also definitely like some wind advisories to come out for the region later tonight or tomorrow morning.


Forecast. Looks to get to about I-78 or perhaps I-81/I-80 in NEPA

7am
Attached Image


1pm
Attached Image


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"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

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BtownWxWatcher
post Mar 11 2014, 05:49 PM
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I think tomorrow we get into the Middle 60s to Middle 70s barring any sunshine, 75% chance of a watch. We defenitely could have a 25 degree temp drop in 3 hours. Lows Thursday Morning Middle 20s west to Lower 30s east. I would put a watches from the BR/Apps in VA/WV/MD/PA north to the PA Turnpike east to Trenton, SW to Salisbury, West to Richmond back to the BR and all in between.


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WeatherLovingDoc
post Mar 11 2014, 06:25 PM
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QUOTE(:Undertakerson @ Mar 11 2014, 05:01 PM) *
Latest HiRes NAM looks like DC to the south and my region immediate north are under the deepest convection.
I'll have to look at the SKEW to see for sure though.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/rad29.html


Attached Image


Understand tomorrow is bringing potential severe weather. Yikes, that yellow convection looks right over my house. We've lost a lot of trees over the years in our area to severe weather, with close calls on house bisection in our neighborhood alone. Had one confirmed low grade tornado years ago and were without power for ten days (with kids). SuperCells fell five trees during Irene in our yard.

Preparing tonight. Did the SKEW confirm? Thanks.
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JohnDoe
post Mar 11 2014, 07:54 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 11 2014, 04:01 PM) *
Latest HiRes NAM looks like DC to the south and my region immediate north are under the deepest convection.
I'll have to look at the SKEW to see for sure though.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/rad29.html


Attached Image


Pardon my dumb questions but is that 23Z? What is that 7pm? I'm trying to figure what time the bad stuff reaches DC.
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BtownWxWatcher
post Mar 11 2014, 08:38 PM
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QUOTE(JohnDoe @ Mar 11 2014, 07:54 PM) *
Pardon my dumb questions but is that 23Z? What is that 7pm? I'm trying to figure what time the bad stuff reaches DC.

Yes, the main line could push through in the 5-11pm period with a rapid temp drop up to 6-9 hours afterward


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BtownWxWatcher
post Mar 11 2014, 08:47 PM
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I could see 2 different options for tomorrow. 1. The low takes a further south track (furthest south I could see it go would be from the WV Panhandle-North Central MD-Northern DE-Central NJ) and we are completely socked in with Low Clouds and being in close proximity to the warm front. This could give the favorable zones of NOVA, DC, Central MD, Northern MD, and South Central PA some showers during the day, keeping this zone in the Middle 50s to Lower 60s. 2. The Low goes north (maybe Pittsburgh-State College-Scranton-White Plains-Hartford), we are further away from the warm front. We get breaks in the clouds and some instability, some isolated t-storms are now possible during the day, then a strong squall line forms Western VA-Eastern WV-Western MD-Southern PA. Temps would be Upper 60s to Middle 70s.


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Undertakerson
post Mar 12 2014, 02:39 AM
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QUOTE
SPC AC 120553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS/MID-ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TODAY.
A 90 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
. AT THE SFC...A
DEEPENING LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SRN OH SSWWD ACROSS ERN KY AND ERN
TN. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST BY THE HI-RES MODELS TO MOVE EWD AND
ORGANIZE INTO A LINE...AFFECTING THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND AFFECTING THE
APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS TO THE EAST OF THE CREST BY THE MID AFTERNOON
.
IT APPEARS THAT THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC BY LATE AFTERNOON.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM NEAR HAGERSTOWN MD SSWWD TO NEAR
CHARLOTTESVILLE VA SHOW A STRONG WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH VEERED
WINDS AT THE SFC AND 50 KT OF WSWLY FLOW ABOVE 850 MB
. THIS ALONG
WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE THREAT
COVERAGE IS DESTABILIZATION. THE WRF-HRRR DEVELOPS SOME FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN VA EXTENDING NWD INTO SRN
PA WHICH COULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS
. THE NAM HAS TWO
POCKETS OF INSTABILITY...THE FIRST IN WRN MD AND THE SECOND IN NRN
NC SUGGESTING LOCALIZED HEATING SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN CREATING THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THE LINE
. AS THE LINE MOVES INTO MD AND
CNTRL VA...ENHANCEMENT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL
JET...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS SHOULD
CREATE A WELL-DEVELOPED FINE LINE. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...A FEW TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
. THE
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY CONTINUE AS FAR EAST AS THE COAST OF VA AND
NJ BY EARLY EVENING. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS
QUESTIONABLE AND MAY DEPEND UPON HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
NCNTRL NC IF THE LINE CAN ORGANIZE THAT FAR SOUTH.

..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 03/12/2014
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BtownWxWatcher
post Mar 12 2014, 05:41 AM
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Looking for a squall line in the 3-8pm timeframe


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DiehardFF
post Mar 12 2014, 06:52 AM
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Ahhhh, severe weather season already eh?

6z 4KM NAM looks pretty good for strong to isolated severe storms rolling through late afternoon/early evening. SPC took SEPA out of the slight risk tho, be interesting to see what they do at their next update.


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Ryan Duff
post Mar 12 2014, 06:56 AM
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06z GFS and 10z RAP not showing much of an organized squall line. But man do those temps get cold after. blink.gif

7pm - 58F
8pm - 41F
9pm - 28F
10pm - 22F
11pm - 20F

(temps are at KMDT, per 06z NAM)


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mike82140
post Mar 12 2014, 07:16 AM
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The 6z RAP has helicity values between 200-600 for a large portion of the region around hour 14, though very pretty much no EHI.
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LUCC
post Mar 12 2014, 07:17 AM
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Sun peaking through the clouds here, pretty warm too.


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