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> Dec 1-3 MidAtl/NE Storm, Probability: Medium Range [4-8 days]FORECAST
PoconoSnow
post Nov 25 2017, 07:20 PM
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This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 25 2017, 07:46 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 25 2017, 07:23 PM
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12z euro on the 2nd



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PoconoSnow
post Nov 25 2017, 07:31 PM
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Wayne county and that place that clapper has to borrow the plow trucks from all the time look to be the bullseye for flakes

I think it's Sullivan county. The price to lease per storm has risen



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bradjl2009
post Nov 25 2017, 07:53 PM
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The models have quickly trended today to a storm which should hopefully be fun to track, hopefully they keep it as the model agreement this afternoon for the GFS and Euro has been decent for 6 days out. Too bad though there isn't much cold air for this to work with.

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JDClapper
post Nov 25 2017, 10:21 PM
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12z GEFS have a very decent signal for this storm.

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Current Season: 5"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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JDClapper
post Nov 25 2017, 10:25 PM
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12z Euro

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Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 5"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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MaineJay
post Nov 26 2017, 04:38 AM
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ECMWF ensemble

H5
120
Attached Image

144
Attached Image

168
Attached Image

MSLP
120
Attached Image

144
Attached Image

168
Attached Image

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...MO=&PERIOD=


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MaineJay
post Nov 26 2017, 04:57 AM
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0z ECMWF does something similar to yesterday's 0z.

Develops what looks like a partly tropical system and wraps it up with an incoming eastern NOAM trof.

Retrogrades a bit over Nova Scotia.

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http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php


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MaineJay
post Nov 26 2017, 05:09 AM
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PMDEPD


QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 AM EST SUN NOV 26 2017

VALID 12Z WED NOV 29 2017 - 12Z SUN DEC 03 2017

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

THE INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE MEAN PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF DECELERATING
OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD, WITH DOMINANT FEATURES BECOMING
LARGER IN SCALE. THE TWO PRIMARY SYSTEMS OF INTEREST WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE INTERIOR WEST BY EARLY DAY 3 WED AND
THE EASTERN STATES BY DAY 5 FRI FOLLOWED BY AN AMPLIFYING EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH WHOSE AXIS WILL LIKELY REACH THE WEST COAST/120W
LONGITUDE BY NEXT WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE A
SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE/POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD BE OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VALLEY AS OF EARLY WED AND THEN
WEAKEN/OPEN UP AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING
WELL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IN IDENTIFYING EXISTENCE OF THESE
FEATURES BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING IMPORTANT
DETAILS THAT WILL AFFECT ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE LATCHING ONTO CONSISTENT TIMING
FOR THE LEADING SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE THAT WEAKENS AFTER EARLY
WED. AN AVERAGE AMONG THE 12Z-18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF SEEMED TO PROVIDE
THE BEST INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION WITHIN A STILL BROAD ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. THE NEW 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT FASTER
BUT THE 00Z UKMET HAS ADJUSTED BACK TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLUSTER
AND THE CMC IS MAINTAINING CONTINUITY THAT IS AT LEAST AS SLOW.

THE TROUGH REACHING THE WEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD STILL HAS
A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR SPECIFICS, ESPECIALLY AS IT
REACHES THE EASTERN STATES. IN VARYING WAYS GUIDANCE IS STILL
PULLING OFF SOME OF THE SOUTHERN ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH WHILE
STILL OFFSHORE DURING THE SHORT RANGE, COLLECTING THIS ENERGY OFF
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIF. EXACTLY HOW MUCH ENERGY GETS SEPARATED
MAY PLAY SOME ROLE IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EVOLUTION. STARTING WITH
THE 12Z/25 CYCLE, GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE MADE A DRASTIC CHANGE FROM
MOST PRIOR RUNS IN CLOSING OFF A DEEP UPPER LOW BEFORE THE TROUGH
REACHES THE EAST COAST-- IN CONTRAST TO EARLIER SIGNALS THAT SUCH
AN EVOLUTION IF OCCURRING WOULD BE MORE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE NEW 00Z GFS HAS TONED DOWN THE STRENGTH OF ITS
SYSTEM BUT IS DEEPER/SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROUGH
VERSUS CONSENSUS ALREADY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THU. ON THE
OTHER HAND THE CMC/UKMET SHOW A MORE OPEN TROUGH MORE SIMILAR TO
WHAT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN SHOWING. IT IS NOTABLE HOWEVER
THAT THE 12Z/18Z MEANS HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WESTWARD WITH SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS TREND ALONG WITH
THE FACT THE CLOSED LOW SCENARIO DOES FIT WITHIN THE OVERALL
ENSEMBLE MEAN TROUGH (ALBEIT WITH RESULTING TROUGH DEPTH IN THE
MINORITY AMONG INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS),
ULTIMATELY SEEMS TO FAVOR AN
INITIAL ADJUSTMENT TOWARD INCLUDING JUST ENOUGH OPERATIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE MEANS TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE SEPARATION ALOFT
(BUT NOT TO THE POINT OF A CLOSED LOW) AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BY DAYS 6-7 SAT-SUN.


ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE ECMWF MEAN IN PARTICULAR REMAIN THE MOST
STABLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST
LATER IN THE PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS SHOW A VARIETY OF WAYS
THAT SHORTWAVE DETAILS COULD BECOME MORE REFINED WITHIN THE
OVERALL TROUGH. THUS FAR TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE UPSTREAM
RIDGE/POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER HAVE TENDED TO SUPPORT THE
BROAD AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DEPICTED BY THE MEANS,
SO PREFERENCE LEANS MUCH CLOSER TO THE MEANS UNTIL OPERATIONAL
RUNS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT. INTERESTINGLY, OVER RECENT DAYS CMC
RUNS HAVE GENERALLY TENDED TO BE CLOSEST TO THE MEANS IN PRINCIPLE
WITH RESPECT TO BROADNESS OF THE TROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND 18Z
AND NEW 00Z GFS RUNS APPEAR SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE IN HOW MUCH
ENERGY GETS PULLED OFF THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WELL
OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE MOST GUIDANCE EJECTS LINGERING ENERGY
OFFSHORE CA/BAJA CALIF NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH. SO FAR THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON TIMING/TRACK, LEADING
TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF EFFECTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WEST.

GIVEN ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS AND FAIRLY RAPID DECLINE IN AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEANS AFTER THE START OF THE PERIOD,
MAJORITY EMPHASIS ON THE 12Z-18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF EXTENDED ONLY INTO
DAY 4 THU FOLLOWED BY 70-80 PCT RELIANCE ON THE 18Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF
MEANS BY DAYS 5-7 FRI-SUN. THE MINORITY OPERATIONAL INPUT BY THAT
TIME CAME FROM THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF AS THE 18Z GFS BECAME FLATTER
THAN CONSENSUS WITH THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH.


...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

LEADING IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VALLEY MAY
PRODUCE A LOCALIZED AREA OF ENHANCED RAINFALL AROUND MIDWEEK
BEFORE WEAKENING. TRAILING WESTERN U.S. SHORTWAVE SHOULD PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW OVER/NEAR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES WED AND THEN PROMOTE A GENERAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
PRECIP OVER THE EAST BY THU-FRI. HOWEVER WIDELY DIFFERING
GUIDANCE DETAILS FOR UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE PATTERN BY THIS TIME
FRAME LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP INTENSITY AND DURATION, AND
IN SOME CASES EVEN PRECIP TYPE DEPENDING ON EXISTENCE OF A CLOSED
LOW. IF ANY HEAVIER PRECIP OCCURS IT IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST, BUT NOTE THAT A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE/LIGHT EPISODE OF PRECIP IS ALSO A POSSIBLE SCENARIO.
ALSO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS
. MEANWHILE THE WEST WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH TIME AS UPPER TROUGHING APPROACHES/ARRIVES.
MOISTURE WILL REACH THE NORTHWEST AROUND LATE WEEK WITH OTHER
PARTS OF THE WEST STARTING TO SEE AREAS OF PRECIP DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE ONE
FAVORED AREA OF FOCUS. THE AREA ENCOMPASSING CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES MAY BE ANOTHER REGION
WITH SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED TOTALS DEPENDING ON DETAILS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND LINGERING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EJECTING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH.

EXPECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND VICINITY TO SEE THE MOST CONSISTENT
WARMTH DURING THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS AVERAGING 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL.
SOME OF THIS WARMTH WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DAY
3 WED, AND PATTERN EVOLUTION BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD SUPPORT A
BROADER AREA OF PLUS 10F OR GREATER ANOMALIES OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S.. THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE EAST WILL BRING A COOLING TREND TO
THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND TIME FRAME AND
UPPER TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT A TREND TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
OVER AN INCREASING PORTION OF THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.

RAUSCH

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd


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MaineJay
post Nov 28 2017, 05:22 AM
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GYX "late in the forecast period" would probably be the tail end of these dates and beyond.

QUOTE
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z Euro still trending toward +PNA pattern setting up late in
the forecast period, but flow continue to remain more zonal
across the nrn tier of the CONUS through the weekend, before low
closes off well to our south and east early next week and
troughing develops across the central NOAM
. This will lead to
some chance for precip through the weekend, but also temps
running normal to slightly above, as the colder air over NOAM
remain in the arctic, and the coldest air in the hemisphere is
relegated to Siberia.

Wed night is likely to be the coldest night in the long range
with sfc high building overhead, should see some early CAA in
NW flow followed by rad cooling for the latter part of the
night. Still, lows will be fairly close to normal, generally in
the teens in the mountains to the the low 20s in srn NH and on
the coast. Thursday look to be a decent with mainly sunny skies
becoming partly sunny late in the day. Light winds thru most of
the day will limits mixing of the warmer temps aloft, but highs
should find their way close to normal in the mid 30s to lower
40s.


The next system that will produce precip moves in Thu night as
500 mb trough moves east out of the GReat Lakes and into New
England on Friday. 00Z Euro weakens the trough as it moves east
and precip tends to dry up a bit as it moves across the CWA late
Thu night into Friday morning. Will probably see some precip,
but it may be pretty light, especially outside the mtns. Still
could see up to an inch in the mountains late Thu night, while
places further south could see precip start as a little light
snow, but increasing S-SW flow should warm things up enough to
change things to rain. Latest QPF looks to be a quarter inch at
best, and that would be limited to the nrn zones. Lows Thu night
will be early in the evening with temps rising overnight. Precip
moves out surging the morning, with highs on Friday above
normal, running mostly in the 40s.


Things cool down slightly Fri night into Sat as weak high
pressure moves in the from the west, but gets squelched by
developing coastal low well to the south and east. This period
should be dry with a fair amt of sun on Saturday and highs in
the upper 30s N to mid 40s S. That storm should stay offshore,
but the 00Z throws some question into the forecast for Sunday as
it noses inverted trough NW into ME, which may produce some
precip, especially in the ern zones. Confidence remains low for
the forecast though, as models have a tough with these features,
not to mention closed lows in general out in the far end of the
forecast. Best guess for now is Monday looks dry and a little
cooler.

&&

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


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bigben89
post Nov 28 2017, 06:46 AM
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January 22-23, 2016 Snow Storm - 20 inches IMBY
February 8-9, 2017 DKBIII Snow - 7 inches IMBY
December 30, 2017 Clipper Snow - 6 inches IMBY
January 12-13, 2018 Changeover Snow - 3 inches IMBY
January 16, 2018 All Day "Cold Front" Snow - 5 inches IMBY
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 28 2017, 07:25 AM
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QUOTE(bigben89 @ Nov 28 2017, 06:46 AM) *

Attached Image


Even these dates that were split off the 6-7 thread may need to be split again

After the precip being pulled north on the 1st



We see an energy parcel swoop down on dec3-4. It closes off and creates quite the wound up storm off the coast on the 4th





Guess we will see where future runs take us

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 28 2017, 07:25 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 28 2017, 07:32 AM
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MD Blue Ridge
post Nov 28 2017, 08:08 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 28 2017, 07:32 AM) *


DOA bruh. winters over. Crocus flower are already blooming.


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sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 28 2017, 08:26 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Nov 28 2017, 08:08 AM) *
DOA bruh. winters over. Crocus flower are already blooming.


Crocus Pocus

(See what i did there)

winter isnt over, you are fibbing too arent you!!!


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MD Blue Ridge
post Nov 28 2017, 08:34 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 28 2017, 08:26 AM) *
Crocus Pocus

(See what i did there)

winter isnt over, you are fibbing too arent you!!!


The word "genius" is thrown around a lot. But you sir....have just earned it...


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Blue Ridge Bouncer


sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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Undertakerson
post Nov 28 2017, 08:38 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Nov 28 2017, 08:34 AM) *
The word "genius" is thrown around a lot. But you sir....have just earned it...

With Duff and you to my south, and Poc and rtc to my northeast, here I sit - just a ridge runnin' ninny.

At least I can play this into a musical reference. Hocus (Crocus) Pocus, to keep things in Focus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGaVUApDVuY


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MD Blue Ridge
post Nov 28 2017, 09:10 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 28 2017, 08:38 AM) *
With Duff and you to my south, and Poc and rtc to my northeast, here I sit - just a ridge runnin' ninny.

At least I can play this into a musical reference. Hocus (Crocus) Pocus, to keep things in Focus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGaVUApDVuY


laugh.gif Man oh man this is a banner day on the ranch...haha

geez weather, give us something to track already.


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sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


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JDClapper
post Nov 28 2017, 10:46 PM
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Cold front.

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 5"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

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JDClapper
post Nov 28 2017, 10:46 PM
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From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





Brrrrrr

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 5"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Cool, thanks.
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