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idecline
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:34 PM


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Peculiar, MO on 06/20/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2330327 · Replies: · Views: 15,408

idecline
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 5 2018, 01:01 PM) *



QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jun 6 2018, 03:32 PM) *
2012 was extraordinary in that winter didn't occur. Winter definitely occurred this year, but not during February.

Looking at the 500 mb GFS ensemble mean all the ridges/troughs appear to be transient so I'm not convinced that a particular pattern will get locked into place this month.

In regards to M. Ventrice's tweet, I don't believe it for a second. IMHO there's way to much convective potential in that region for prolonged above normal temperatures of that magnitude.


QUOTE(idecline @ Jun 6 2018, 05:52 PM) *
...in regards to Ventrice's tweet...seems probable as much as any other outcome...and unfortunately climatology shows a similar 'outbreak' of heat in June 2012...convection cannot help under hot descending air from a large 'Ring of Fire' type of high pressure...sure the peripheral area surrounding this high may be ripe for extreme outbreaks of severe weather...after living in California all these years we often live under 'domes' of high pressure for months at a time...i.e. SF Bay Area averages less than .25 inch of rainfall for June... dry.gif



QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jun 7 2018, 08:15 AM) *
As somebody who lived near the epicenter of the 2012 drought I can confidently assure you that surface temperature anomalies will not approach those of 2012. Thus, that model forecast can be safely ignored, because it's not as probable as any other outcome and the extreme climate anomaly of June 2012 does not, in any way, represent climatology of the central plains.

Sure, a potent ridge aloft and at the surface would lead to synoptic scale subsidence that prevents convection, but this is a moot point when no short term model guidance advertises that possibility. If anything there's anomalous low pressure on the plains, suggesting exactly what my previous post mentioned ... lots of convective potential. If it rains often, surface temperature anomalies will be held in check ... the extreme heat in June 2012 would not have been possible if it rained regularly.

unsure.gif ...idee unsure of himself...only a 'hobbyist'...some college...math, engineering, extensive physics classes...Hobbies include:...meteorology...oceanography...'El-Nino(ENSO)...earthquakes...etc...

just sayin'...looks pretty hot so far... dry.gif
Attached Image


idee definitely is no 'expert'...nor would he want to be..."An expert knows few ways and must follow them, a novice is open to everything"-...?
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2330326 · Replies: · Views: 17,228

idecline
Posted on: Jun 18 2018, 08:20 PM


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Cozad, NE on 06/19/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2330290 · Replies: · Views: 15,408

idecline
Posted on: Jun 13 2018, 08:31 PM


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...was still warm to hot in the Bay Area today under a ridge of high pressure...only coastal locations were in the 60's, even San Francisco and Oakland were into the mid-70's today...with 80's nearer the Bay and some 90's in the hotter outlying areas away from the Bay...
Attached Image
...a small little bit of convection is offshore to our south...mainly the forecast concerns the soon to be remnants of Hurricane Bud moving into the SouthWest...and how much(and how far north) the remnants of former TC Maliksi out in the NE Pacific pumps up the ridge to our west...we may be caught in a weak area between the high pressing against the strong low and a low forming to our east...hmmm
OPC 72hr:
Attached Image

...so a 'low' appears to be sitting over our area entering the weekend...this should cool the area with onshore flow...cooler each day until Monday seems a probable forecast...unless Bud sends a stream of moisture our way... dry.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2330138 · Replies: · Views: 89,467

idecline
Posted on: Jun 13 2018, 07:57 PM


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Velva, ND on 06/14/2018

Eau Claire, WI on 06/15/2018

Eden Prairie, MN on 06/16/2018

Watertown, SD on 06/17/2018

Dayton, OH on 06/18/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2330137 · Replies: · Views: 15,408

idecline
Posted on: Jun 12 2018, 08:31 PM


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...it looks like a bitof warm to hot weather is here for a few days...the WV loop shows a classic 'ridge' of high pressure...and the accompanying dry air (orange color on WV loop) laying directly across our area...
Attached Image

...OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...fronts are being forced up and over the ridge...and with the former TC Maliksi's remnants heading for Alaska...our high pressure may strengthen and shift a bit to the north by this weekend...maybe a southern bit of moisture can slide up from the remnants of Hurricane Bud off the Baja coast...flooding is quite likely into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region by the weekend...and tropical moisture may stream into the Gulf Coast area...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2330096 · Replies: · Views: 89,467

idecline
Posted on: Jun 12 2018, 07:57 PM


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Henrietta, NY on 06/13/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2330095 · Replies: · Views: 15,408

idecline
Posted on: Jun 11 2018, 08:52 PM


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...hmm...EL-hmmm unsure.gif
Attached File  ensodisc.pdf ( 560.87K ) Number of downloads: 7


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*bleep*...ry/ensodisc.pdf

the valley are low and the mountains are high... huh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2330078 · Replies: · Views: 182,227

idecline
Posted on: Jun 11 2018, 08:23 PM


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Attached Image
QUOTE
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 112032
TCDEP3

Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018
300 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018

The organization of the cloud pattern has improved overall, but the
eye has been fluctuating between clear and obscure. An average of
TAFB/SAB subjective T-numbers and much higher objective values from
UW/CIMSS yield an initial intensity of 105 kt. Bud still has the
opportunity to gain some additional strength during the next 12
hours or so before the environmental conditions become less
conducive and the cyclone gradually encounters the cooler waters
near the Baja California peninsula in about 3 days. By then, Bud is
expected to be below hurricane strength. The official intensity
forecast is in between the Corrected Consensus HCCA model, which
weakens Bud fast, and the SHIPS guidance which shows a more gradual
decay.

Bud appears to be moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at
about 6 kt. The steering pattern is well established while Bud
continues to be embedded within the flow around a subtropical
ridge centered over Mexico and the southwestern United States. Once
Bud reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 24 to 36
hours, it should gradually turn north-northwestward and then
northward toward the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is
not different from the previous one and is in the middle of
the guidance envelope. It is also a little to the west of the
HCCA corrected consensus and the FSSE, which are among the rightmost
of the models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 17.0N 107.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 18.2N 108.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 19.0N 108.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 19.7N 109.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 28.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2330077 · Replies: · Views: 556

idecline
Posted on: Jun 11 2018, 08:16 PM


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...so Tropical systems approaching the CONUS from two(maybe three huh.gif ) directions are going to have there say in the weather across the country in the next week or more... wink.gif
Quote from WPC extended forecast...
QUOTE
Coordination with the Alaska Medium Range desk led to discussion
of the downstream ramifications of the ongoing extratropical
transition of Maliksi offshore Japan, which is expected to lead to
a more amplified flow pattern than usual for mid to late June
across North America...cont.)

OPC 96hr map: (former TC Maliksi looks to be moving into the Aleutians on June 15, 2018)...(Typhoon rule)
Attached Image


CODE
Extended Forecast Discussion...Amended
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 14 2018 - 12Z Mon Jun 18 2018

...A weakening Bud in the eastern Pacific and an incoming
Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico tropical disturbance could lead to wet
weather across the Rockies, northern Plains, upper Midwest, and
western Gulf coast from this weekend into next Monday...

...Pattern Overview...
Coordination with the Alaska Medium Range desk led to discussion
of the downstream ramifications of the ongoing extratropical
transition of Maliksi offshore Japan, which is expected to lead to
a more amplified flow pattern than usual for mid to late June
across North America. As Maliksi swings into Alaska as a robust
system, ridging builds across the eastern Pacific which leads to a
pronounced trough across the West, which leads to a similarly
pronounced ridge/trough couplet across the Mississippi
Valley/western Atlantic respectively. A tropical disturbance
currently in the southwest Caribbean sea is expected to track
northwest into Texas on the south side of the Mississippi Valley
ridge.


...Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The guidance shows reasonable agreement for much of the period.
The biggest issue involves whether or not a closed low in the
western Atlantic retrogrades into the East coast, which only the
operational 00z ECMWF shows beyond day 6/Sunday morning. While
the Canadian is favorable across the western Atlantic late in the
period, its pattern across the West and Midwest leaves a bit to be
desired. Taking that into account, a compromise of the 00z ECMWF,
00z UKMET, 00z GFS, and 00z Canadian were used for the
fronts/pressures/winds through Saturday. From Sunday onward,
phased out the 00z Canadian and 00z ECMWF solutions substituting
the 00z GFS, 00z ECMWF ensemble mean, and 00z NAEFS mean in their
place. This solution led to reasonable continuity. For the
southwest Caribbean tropical disturbance, maintained reasonable
continuity from yesterday but added a surface low as conditions
could become favorable for a convective low in the western Gulf of
Mexico, to the north of an upper level cyclone. See the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center for
the latest on its prospects for further development.

For the remainder of the medium range grids, a more even blend of
the ensemble means (leaning more ECMWF ensemble mean) and 00z
GFS/06z GFS solutions was utilized. For the days 4-7 QPF, the
initial template is a blend of the 00z GFS, 06z GFS, 00z ECMWF,
and 12z National Blend of Models. Should the 12z GFS look
reasonable in a couple hours, it could be utilized for the days
4-7 QPF as well.


...Weather Highlights/Hazards...
A weakening surface front and moist air mass will support
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend, especially during the afternoons and evenings, across the
Southeastern states, with the potential for locally heavy
rainfall. A broad trough/area of disturbed weather moving
west-northwest to northwest across the Gulf of Mexico is also
expected to bring widespread rains to portions of TX and LA from
the weekend into early next week. Farther north, a shortwave,
surface low pressure system crossing the northern plains and Upper
Midwest will produce areas of convection with potentially heavy
rainfall. The frontal boundary may slow or stall for a period of
time Sat-Sun from the central plains to the Upper Midwest,
resulting in several days with shower/thunderstorms potential, and
potential flooding threat for some areas.

Moisture associated with Tropical Storm Bud should begin to spread
into the southwestern U.S. and the Rockies by the weekend,
bringing the potential for areas of heavy rainfall. Interactions
with a stationary frontal boundary draped from the Great Basin
into the Central Rockies could lead to an enhancement of heavy
rainfall potential. Some model solutions even suggest the
possibility that the moisture from Bud could spread east into the
central/northern plains, further enhancing heavy rain potential
along the frontal boundary.

Temperatures will also become a bigger story during the next week
as the upper ridge expands across the central U.S. and then drifts
east into the Ohio Valley. High temperature anomalies of +10 to
+18 deg F are expected Thu-Sat across areas from the central
plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, with highs approaching 100
degrees for some areas. Forecast highs and lows are expected to
approach but fall short of record warm/hot values through the
period. By Sunday and next Monday, the greatest temperature
anomalies will shift a bit east from the Mid-Mississippi Valley
into the Ohio Valley. High dew points in addition to the hot
temperatures will make for dangerous heat index values for some
areas, which would impact urban areas the greatest as they would
receive the double whammy of high afternoon temperatures and
urbanly-induced warm overnight lows.

Roth/Ryan


...and meanwhile Bud is quickly becoming the second strong tropical cyclone in the NEastern Pacific basin...
Attached Image

...and to add 'fuel to the fire'...
Attached Image

...another system will pump energy and moisture into an already volatile and perhaps amplified jet stream flow across the CONUS...here's lookin' at model mayhem for the next two weeks wink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2330075 · Replies: · Views: 17,228

idecline
Posted on: Jun 11 2018, 07:51 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866



Kismet, KS on 06/12/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2330073 · Replies: · Views: 15,408

idecline
Posted on: Jun 6 2018, 06:35 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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WaKeeney, KS on 06/07/2018

Peculiar, MO on 06/08/2018

Keokuk, IA on 06/09/2018

Owensboro, KY on 06/10/2018

Belle Fourche, ND on 06/11/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2329814 · Replies: · Views: 15,408

idecline
Posted on: Jun 6 2018, 05:52 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 5 2018, 01:01 PM) *




QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jun 6 2018, 03:32 PM) *
2012 was extraordinary in that winter didn't occur. Winter definitely occurred this year, but not during February.

Looking at the 500 mb GFS ensemble mean all the ridges/troughs appear to be transient so I'm not convinced that a particular pattern will get locked into place this month.

In regards to M. Ventrice's tweet, I don't believe it for a second. IMHO there's way to much convective potential in that region for prolonged above normal temperatures of that magnitude.

...in regards to Ventrice's tweet...seems probable as much as any other outcome...and unfortunately climitology shows a similar 'outbreak' of heat in June 2012...convection cannot help under hot descending air from a large 'Ring of Fire' type of high pressure...sure the peripheral area surrounding this high may be ripe for extreme outbreaks of severe weather...after living in California all these years we often live under 'domes' of high pressure for months at a time...i.e. SF Bay Area averages less than .25 inch of rainfall for June... dry.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2329812 · Replies: · Views: 17,228

idecline
Posted on: Jun 5 2018, 07:31 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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...um...California 'Spring-Time' weather seems to be here for a while...
Attached Image

...flow looks to be somewhat 'zonal' across the North Pacific...with minor 'perturbations' heading across to the north...
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...looks to be perhaps quite windy along the coast going into the weekend...a ridge seems to be building inland...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2329777 · Replies: · Views: 89,467

idecline
Posted on: Jun 5 2018, 07:19 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


rolleyes.gif ...thanks for noticing the Eastern Pacific basin...seldom does the Pacific get much 'media' attention...in my estimation it is very important...in that the moisture drawn up to north can be drawn into the Westerly flow, directly effecting the CONUS...and tropical storms( and hurricanes/tropical cyclones ) are fascinating no matter where they occur on the globe...
Attached Image

...from AccuWeather "hurricane 2018" page:
QUOTE
Tropical development likely soon
6/5/2018 5:00:00 PM
We continue to monitor an area of disturbed weather associated with a broad low pressure area over 300 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Recent satellite imagery depicts greater organization of this feature. We anticipate more consolidation to this area of low pressure over the next 12-24 hours.

Tropical development appears likely soon as ambient environmental conditions improve around this disturbance. This system will likely continue to drift to the west, on the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge axis situated over north-central Mexico. Regardless of development of this system, we do not anticipate it to directly impact any land masses.

Elsewhere in the Eastern Pacific Basin, we will be monitoring the potential for a tropical wave to emerge off of the coast of Central America later today and tomorrow. This tropical wave will also have the potential for development late this weekend or early next week.

by AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek


from NHC:
Attached Image

QUOTE
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jun 5 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with a
low pressure system located several hundred miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to become better defined, and it
appears that a tropical depression is forming. Continued
development is expected, and advisories could be initiated on this
system as early as this evening or early Wednesday while the low
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph south of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. A tropical wave moving westward across Central America into the far
eastern Pacific Ocean is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become
more conducive for development during the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward off the coast of southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Berg


huh.gif ...looks like a 100%-er...bright red on the NHC map...'Aletta' in our future...???
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2329775 · Replies: · Views: 985

idecline
Posted on: Jun 5 2018, 06:40 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
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Fort Dodge, IA on 06/06/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2329773 · Replies: · Views: 15,408

idecline
Posted on: Jun 4 2018, 07:33 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...if it all pans out...of course storms could be to the West and South of my estimations...(as usual)... rolleyes.gif
Attached Image


...either way...it seems some severe weather will be taking place in the Northern Plains tomorrow...esp. late at night...
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2329742 · Replies: · Views: 4,876

idecline
Posted on: Jun 4 2018, 07:10 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,316
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866



Jamestown, ND on 06/05/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2329741 · Replies: · Views: 15,408

idecline
Posted on: May 30 2018, 08:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,316
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...not much going on in California for now...had extensive 'heat wave' in the Bay Area on Monday and Tuesday
Attached Image
...we got some 90's inland, 80's were widespread, with much cooler 60's and 70's closer to the Bay and ocean with a lingering overcast in some areas...much cooler today with a much more persistent wind from the ocean...a little bit of rotation is just to our north about to come ashore along the OR/CA border...a trough is dipping down but even with a hint of moisture to our south it is unlikely to bring any precipitation to our area

...a little rotation from the sub-tropics appears headed for Northern Baja/ far Southern California region...?

OPC 48hr:
Attached Image


...there doesn't appear to be any moisture in our near future (except for fog and overcast nights and mornings)...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2329466 · Replies: · Views: 89,467

idecline
Posted on: May 30 2018, 08:11 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,316
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866



Newburgh, IN on 05/31/2018

Pierre, SD on 06/01/2018

Metropolis, IL on 06/02/2018

Alpharetta, GA on 06/03/2018

Dickinson, ND on 06/04/2018

  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2329461 · Replies: · Views: 15,408

idecline
Posted on: May 29 2018, 07:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,316
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866



Turley, OK on 05/30/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2329391 · Replies: · Views: 15,408

idecline
Posted on: May 25 2018, 07:53 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,316
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(idecline @ May 23 2018, 03:09 PM) *
Detroit Lakes, MN on 05/24/2018
Eau Claire, WI on 05/25/2018


Detroit, MI on 05/26/2018

Belle Fourche, SD on 05/27/2018

Mobridge, SD on 05/28/2018


changing to:

Clare, MI on 05/26/2018

Belle Forche, SD on 05/27/2018

Smith Center, KS on 05/28/2018

Smithfield, NC on 05/29/2018

Happy Memorial Day to All! dry.gif
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2329058 · Replies: · Views: 15,408

idecline
Posted on: May 23 2018, 03:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,316
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866



Detroit Lakes, MN on 05/24/2018

Eau Claire, WI on 05/25/2018

Detroit, MI on 05/26/2018

Belle Fourche, SD on 05/27/2018

Mobridge, SD on 05/28/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2328936 · Replies: · Views: 15,408

idecline
Posted on: May 22 2018, 08:45 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,316
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866



Bismark, ND on 05/23/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2328908 · Replies: · Views: 15,408

idecline
Posted on: May 22 2018, 08:22 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,316
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...Clear inland during the day with fog lingering along the coast...windy with fog filling up the Bay at night...
Attached Image
...an area of low pressure to our north and east is still pushing back side storms into Idaho, Nevada, eastern Oregon, with clouds forming over the Sierras...
OPC Pacific 48hr:
Attached Image

...the OPC 48hr shows a little trough of cut-off energy sneaking under our high pressure that is centered well offshore...perhaps with a little bit of energy from the base of the trough to our north...a sprinkle or two late week?
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2328907 · Replies: · Views: 89,467

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