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> Dec 21-23rd MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range (4-8days)
PoconoSnow
post Dec 6 2017, 01:00 PM
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BSR





GFS is getting in range although will swing wildly

06z


12z


typhoon rule has possibly something recurving around the 15th or 16th per euro



The North Pole had a warmup on on the 22nd from a 1052 HP 30 days prior which I will have to dig up

And the RRWT had very interesting extrema for the analog of the oscillation dates



Here is the 5d, josh pulled the extremes for the 22nd but I'd have to go dig to pull them.



I want to keep this thread seperate from any white Christmas thread although this may lead to that.

As always I will keep thread updated and keep info unbiased and useful. Much of this was derived from playing along in the organic forecasting thread.

Thanks and enjoy smile.gif

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Dec 17 2017, 05:41 PM


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jdrenken
post Dec 6 2017, 01:02 PM
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Can we call this BKB17?


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PoconoSnow
post Dec 6 2017, 01:03 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 6 2017, 01:02 PM) *
Can we call this BKB17?


Lol you sir may call it whatever you like smile.gif

Just don't murder me laugh.gif smile.gif


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jdrenken
post Dec 6 2017, 01:11 PM
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Memories
Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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JDClapper
post Dec 6 2017, 02:03 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 6 2017, 02:02 PM) *
Can we call this BKB17?


As long as the result isn't like the original.. sure! laugh.gif


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Undertakerson
post Dec 6 2017, 04:29 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 6 2017, 02:03 PM) *
As long as the result isn't like the original.. sure! laugh.gif

#wickedgradient

For your sake, I hope it's not too much like that one. Not sure you'd be able to withstand two such outcomes.


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JDClapper
post Dec 6 2017, 05:57 PM
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Mmmm... set-up looking delicious.

Hr 384 18z shenanigans. laugh.gif

Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

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Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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PoconoSnow
post Dec 6 2017, 05:59 PM
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Tantalizing







Best to view from afar though and watch the pattern at hand and how or if we morph/modulate




Large swings run to run but to be expected





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Undertakerson
post Dec 6 2017, 06:20 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Dec 6 2017, 05:59 PM) *
Tantalizing



Best to view from afar though and watch the pattern at hand and how or if we morph/modulate


Large swings run to run but to be expected

My .02 in re: the H5 anom charts you've posted.

There is something to "like" in those IMHO - that is the breaking of the monster W ridge. The ridge is usually very friendly to Eastern snow lovers, but lately it's been poorly placed and even worse with the negative tilt at crest.

This breaking actually allows (looking verbatim, of course) to allow for a minor ridge crest to the east, a kind of bifurcated effect to the overall ridge crest.

That eastern lobe (if you will) has a positive orientation and should allow the northern shortwave (weaker than southern and not shown in the anoms, but is on the vort maps) to dig in more classic manner - the stone in the pond analogy, but dropped as opposed to skip tossed (on an angle IOW)

The heights out front should rise in response to that "plunge" - making an Eastern storm very likely. No telling just yet where that would go exactly, but that's a detail at this far out and we don't deal in details - yet (do we? laugh.gif )


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MaineJay
post Dec 7 2017, 06:08 AM
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Using the BSR image Poc posted and I went 24 hours either side of that time stamp.


48 hour loop.


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PoconoSnow
post Dec 7 2017, 08:44 AM
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06z gefs h5 anoms 23rd 0z



Way far out but pattern and tele regions depicting interesting signals in modeling world too

Stubborn wave 6 ?

Shall see



Far too early to tell

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Dec 7 2017, 09:00 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Dec 7 2017, 12:29 PM
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PoconoSnow
post Dec 7 2017, 12:30 PM
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All important zoomed out h5 anoms at this lead time



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Black05GSR
post Dec 7 2017, 01:31 PM
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Noticing much more use of the BSR this year over last year. Is this the go to for long range now?


--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5"); 1/30 (2.5"); 2/2 (4"); 2/4 (5"); 2/7 (2"); 2/17 (5.5"); 3/2 (10.5"); 3/7 (9.5"); 3/8 (3"); 3/13 (3"); 3/21 (3"); 4/2 (7")
Total: 70.5" Avg. 49"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7"); 2/17 (6"); 3/7 (6"); 3/13 (1"); 3/21 (11"); 4/2 (6")
Total: 45.75"
Avg. 26"
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MD Blue Ridge
post Dec 7 2017, 02:31 PM
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cutter.

laugh.gif laugh.gif


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jdrenken
post Dec 7 2017, 02:58 PM
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QUOTE(Black05GSR @ Dec 7 2017, 12:31 PM) *
Noticing much more use of the BSR this year over last year. Is this the go to for long range now?


More exposure due to being peer reviewed and @cranky's hosting of the page. Not to mention those who use it in here are aware of the success for obvious reasons. BKB & BKBII to name a few.


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


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Organicforecasting Blog


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Undertakerson
post Dec 8 2017, 05:43 AM
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6z GFS signal aloft looks really decent

Details will sort out obviously.

I like what I see so far and with BSR support...


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PoconoSnow
post Dec 8 2017, 07:15 AM
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Will do my best to keep this updated

Long range 6z gfs h5 anom NA view



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PoconoSnow
post Dec 8 2017, 07:16 AM
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Gefs



Both valid 06z on the 21st


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PoconoSnow
post Dec 8 2017, 11:54 AM
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12z gfs 21st





Loop




Longggg way to go

Zoomed out h5 anoms










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