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> Long Range Summer 2018 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and mor
Ahoff
post Jun 15 2018, 06:22 AM
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QUOTE(bradjl2009 @ Jun 14 2018, 10:58 PM) *
I wouldn't call near 90 beautiful but that's just me.


Fair enough, I like the heat in summer, but as long as it's not raining, I'm happy. It could be 112, as long as it doesn't rain, haha.
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PGM
post Jun 15 2018, 09:37 AM
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Upper 90s to near 100 this weekend w/o heat index. Any signs of a record hot summer in the works? Pretty early for this kind of heat this far north.
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FireworkWX03
post Jun 15 2018, 03:53 PM
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Bud and an early monsoon season giving us basically the opposite of the expected temp pattern for the rest of June. It's even more pronounced on today's 6-10/8-14.
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NorEaster07
post Jun 16 2018, 07:27 AM
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Monday will be hottest day and probably until July?

Tomorrow max temp forecast.



Monday max temp forecast

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NorEaster07
post Jun 16 2018, 07:32 AM
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June departures so far for NorthEast. Nothing extreme at all but nice to finally have a below normal period in a summer month.

Coldest 1st half of June in NYC since 2012. (Funny to hear since 2012 was a hot yr). Coldest since 2009 in Caribou, Maine

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MotownWX
post Jun 18 2018, 07:02 AM
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QUOTE(Ahoff @ Jun 14 2018, 06:43 PM) *
Really? Because it's going to be a beautiful weekend here in Pittsburgh. What are you guys getting.


When I posted, they were forecasting all-day showers and thunderstorms for Saturday. But as it turned out I only had a couple hours of it in the morning. Northern Michigan wound up getting the brunt of it.
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alczervik
post Jun 19 2018, 05:53 AM
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The last two days have been absolutely beautiful. Hot and humid temps in mid 90's.

I was reading a story that Igloo Lake in Newfoundland, have six feet of snow pack.
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RobB
post Jun 19 2018, 08:50 AM
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June so far IMBY. Last three days were in the 90s.

CODE
MONTHLY CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY for JUN. 2018

NAME: South Dayton Bruiser Home   CITY: South Dayton   STATE: Ohio
ELEV:   728 ft  LAT:  39 41' 30" N  LONG:  84 12' 20" W

                   TEMPERATURE (F), RAIN  (in), WIND SPEED (mph)

                                      HEAT  COOL        AVG
    MEAN                              DEG   DEG         WIND                 DOM
DAY TEMP  HIGH   TIME   LOW    TIME   DAYS  DAYS  RAIN  SPEED HIGH   TIME    DIR
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1  72.3  81.4   2:49p  68.1   4:37a   0.0   7.2  0.14   0.8  13.0   4:10p    SW
2  74.7  84.5   5:45p  65.0   5:57a   0.0   9.5  0.00   1.0   8.0   7:58a     N
3  74.5  81.6   4:06p  67.1  11:57p   0.0   9.3  0.00   2.4  20.0   4:42p   WNW
4  67.9  76.5   6:05p  57.0   6:21a   1.3   4.1  0.00   2.5  18.0   3:02p   WNW
5  64.9  79.6   2:30p  53.7   4:20a   3.1   3.0  0.13   0.9  16.0   2:08p   WSW
6  64.2  75.1   5:35p  53.0   6:45a   3.1   2.3  0.00   1.2  13.0   1:09p     N
7  70.9  85.7   6:05p  56.0   5:50a   2.5   8.2  0.08   1.3  13.0   1:25p    SW
8  73.8  85.7   4:30p  67.1   6:32a   0.0   8.3  0.72   1.2  16.0   7:15p   WSW
9  73.6  87.4   3:29p  65.4   6:37a   0.0   6.7  0.05   0.8  28.0   5:19p   SSE
10  71.3  78.8  11:35a  65.0   5:18a   0.0   6.2  0.02   1.3  14.0   1:38p   WNW
11  70.6  77.2   6:41p  68.2   6:03a   0.0   5.5  0.15   0.3   8.0  10:59p   ESE
12  72.3  81.6   4:50p  67.6   1:20a   0.0   7.2  0.18   1.3  13.0   2:08p    SW
13  75.0  84.7   3:22p  69.4  12:00m   0.0   9.8  0.00   1.9  17.0   2:53p    SW
14  70.7  83.4   6:08p  54.2   6:24a   2.2   7.8  0.00   0.7   8.0   3:38p     N
15  74.6  87.2   4:02p  60.0   6:12a   0.9  10.3  0.00   0.8   8.0  12:42p   SSE
16  76.1  91.0   3:08p  65.1   5:52a   0.0  10.9  0.02   0.8  18.0   4:10p   WSW
17  82.0  94.3   4:45p  69.6   5:52a   0.0  16.7  0.00   1.2  11.0   1:57p   WSW
18  83.6  93.8   4:20p  71.9   6:19a   0.0  18.2  0.00   2.2  19.0   5:28p   WSW
19  78.3  82.0   9:47a  75.6   6:42a   0.0   5.3  0.00   0.6  11.0   9:34a    SW
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    73.2  94.3    17    53.0     6    13.1 156.5  1.49   1.2  28.0     9     WSW

Max >=  90.0:  3
Max <=  32.0:  0
Min <=  32.0:  0
Min <=   0.0:  0
Max Rain: 0.72 ON 06/08/18
Days of Rain: 9 (>.01 in) 5 (>.1 in) 0 (>1 in)
Heat Base:  65.0  Cool Base:  65.0  Method: Integration
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idecline
post Jun 19 2018, 06:32 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 5 2018, 01:01 PM) *



QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jun 6 2018, 03:32 PM) *
2012 was extraordinary in that winter didn't occur. Winter definitely occurred this year, but not during February.

Looking at the 500 mb GFS ensemble mean all the ridges/troughs appear to be transient so I'm not convinced that a particular pattern will get locked into place this month.

In regards to M. Ventrice's tweet, I don't believe it for a second. IMHO there's way to much convective potential in that region for prolonged above normal temperatures of that magnitude.


QUOTE(idecline @ Jun 6 2018, 05:52 PM) *
...in regards to Ventrice's tweet...seems probable as much as any other outcome...and unfortunately climatology shows a similar 'outbreak' of heat in June 2012...convection cannot help under hot descending air from a large 'Ring of Fire' type of high pressure...sure the peripheral area surrounding this high may be ripe for extreme outbreaks of severe weather...after living in California all these years we often live under 'domes' of high pressure for months at a time...i.e. SF Bay Area averages less than .25 inch of rainfall for June... dry.gif



QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jun 7 2018, 08:15 AM) *
As somebody who lived near the epicenter of the 2012 drought I can confidently assure you that surface temperature anomalies will not approach those of 2012. Thus, that model forecast can be safely ignored, because it's not as probable as any other outcome and the extreme climate anomaly of June 2012 does not, in any way, represent climatology of the central plains.

Sure, a potent ridge aloft and at the surface would lead to synoptic scale subsidence that prevents convection, but this is a moot point when no short term model guidance advertises that possibility. If anything there's anomalous low pressure on the plains, suggesting exactly what my previous post mentioned ... lots of convective potential. If it rains often, surface temperature anomalies will be held in check ... the extreme heat in June 2012 would not have been possible if it rained regularly.

unsure.gif ...idee unsure of himself...only a 'hobbyist'...some college...math, engineering, extensive physics classes...Hobbies include:...meteorology...oceanography...'El-Nino(ENSO)...earthquakes...etc...

just sayin'...looks pretty hot so far... dry.gif
Attached File  14dTDeptUS.png ( 106.21K ) Number of downloads: 3


idee definitely is no 'expert'...nor would he want to be..."An expert knows few ways and must follow them, a novice is open to everything"-...?

This post has been edited by idecline: Jun 19 2018, 06:53 PM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 19 2018, 11:17 PM
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Yeah, well above average May... above average June so far, but the heat waves not nearly as extreme as 2012. But I think Michael Ventrice's Tweet may not be too far off.

June 2012 is held on a pedestal somewhat unjustly due to the heat seen in the last week or so of the month. The month ended being around a degree or two above average for IL/IN/OH, but everyone just remembers the late June heat wave and not the seasonable/seasonably cool start to the month. I fall in that category.

I now believe this June will be warmer than 2012 for many of us in the MW, but we won't see a heat wave like we did in late June 2012. We've come close... for example, Cincy hit the mid-90's for 3 days in a row. That's pretty darn impressive but not quite on the same level as 2, almost 3 days in a row of 100+ degrees

Looking like we return to the hot pattern next week and beyond.

I'm already up to 8 days above 90 this year, while we only saw 11 days above 90 all of last year and we're barely past mid-June. Let's see if it can be maintained into July and August.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 19 2018, 11:40 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jun 20 2018, 11:26 AM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Jun 19 2018, 07:32 PM) *
unsure.gif ...idee unsure of himself...only a 'hobbyist'...some college...math, engineering, extensive physics classes...Hobbies include:...meteorology...oceanography...'El-Nino(ENSO)...earthquakes...etc...

just sayin'...looks pretty hot so far... dry.gif
Attached File  14dTDeptUS.png ( 106.21K ) Number of downloads: 3


idee definitely is no 'expert'...nor would he want to be..."An expert knows few ways and must follow them, a novice is open to everything"-...?



QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 20 2018, 12:17 AM) *
Yeah, well above average May... above average June so far, but the heat waves not nearly as extreme as 2012. But I think Michael Ventrice's Tweet may not be too far off.

June 2012 is held on a pedestal somewhat unjustly due to the heat seen in the last week or so of the month. The month ended being around a degree or two above average for IL/IN/OH, but everyone just remembers the late June heat wave and not the seasonable/seasonably cool start to the month. I fall in that category.

I now believe this June will be warmer than 2012 for many of us in the MW, but we won't see a heat wave like we did in late June 2012. We've come close... for example, Cincy hit the mid-90's for 3 days in a row. That's pretty darn impressive but not quite on the same level as 2, almost 3 days in a row of 100+ degrees

Looking like we return to the hot pattern next week and beyond.

I'm already up to 8 days above 90 this year, while we only saw 11 days above 90 all of last year and we're barely past mid-June. Let's see if it can be maintained into July and August.


It will be interesting to see how the month ends up as a whole, maybe the average temperatures will be comparable after all.

2012 is held on a pedestal because of the drought. Hot afternoon temperatures were a symptom of the drought, but what's missing here is discussion of the diurnal temperature range.

In Columbia, MO:
Both June 27 and 28, 2012 had a diurnal temperature range of 39F (103F/64F and 107F/68F, respectively), which is more typical of a desert location. These high temperatures set records for each date, but the low temperatures were very near the long term average of 66F. As a result, the average temperatures on these dates were 84 and 88F, respectively.

Alternatively, June 16,17, and 18 of 2018 all had max temperatures of 96-97F and the minimums were 74-76F resulting in diurnal ranges of 20-22F (typical of Missouri summers). However, the average temperatures were between 85-86F. FWIW, the largest diurnal temperature range so far this month was 31F (88F/57F), which happened to be the second coolest day of the month *so far*.

Therefore, even though the average temperature of hottest days in 2012 and 2018 are in the mid-80s the observed weather on the hot days are not even close.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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bingobobbo
post Jun 20 2018, 04:54 PM
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Yesterday NWS was bullish on cool weather for early next week. Now they claim that heights will be rising aloft, which can mean only one thing: goodbye cool air after Monday. Tuesday's high has already risen to 78, and that could be the coolest for the rest of the month. What it means is that this month will end up a small fraction of a degree above normal--just like 2012, 2013, and 2016.


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idecline
post Jun 20 2018, 06:22 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jun 20 2018, 11:26 AM) *
It will be interesting to see how the month ends up as a whole, maybe the average temperatures will be comparable after all.

2012 is held on a pedestal because of the drought. Hot afternoon temperatures were a symptom of the drought, but what's missing here is discussion of the diurnal temperature range.

In Columbia, MO:
Both June 27 and 28, 2012 had a diurnal temperature range of 39F (103F/64F and 107F/68F, respectively), which is more typical of a desert location. These high temperatures set records for each date, but the low temperatures were very near the long term average of 66F. As a result, the average temperatures on these dates were 84 and 88F, respectively.

Alternatively, June 16,17, and 18 of 2018 all had max temperatures of 96-97F and the minimums were 74-76F resulting in diurnal ranges of 20-22F (typical of Missouri summers). However, the average temperatures were between 85-86F. FWIW, the largest diurnal temperature range so far this month was 31F (88F/57F), which happened to be the second coolest day of the month *so far*.

Therefore, even though the average temperature of hottest days in 2012 and 2018 are in the mid-80s the observed weather on the hot days are not even close.


Agreed...idee was just being snarky...we in California are due for 100+ temperatures this weekend...with 50's-60's at night...typical of our drier, semi-arid climate in the areas not directly by the Pacific Ocean...

Thanks for an interesting anecdote on the 2012 weather...


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WeatherMonger
post Jun 20 2018, 06:24 PM
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Attached File  temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours__3_.png ( 130.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  precip_probhazards_d8_14_contours__2_.png ( 117.71K ) Number of downloads: 0
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Solstice
post Jun 21 2018, 06:05 PM
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Happy Summer Solstice! wub.gif.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Ahoff
post Jun 21 2018, 07:13 PM
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Are there signs of increased heat next week in the east? I'm seeing temps rising in forecasts for this time next week. Of course that doesn't necessarily mean anything, but just wondering.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 21 2018, 09:30 PM
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QUOTE(Ahoff @ Jun 21 2018, 08:13 PM) *
Are there signs of increased heat next week in the east? I'm seeing temps rising in forecasts for this time next week. Of course that doesn't necessarily mean anything, but just wondering.

Yup, 591dm ridge centered over the Mississippi river valley on the two big ensemble means on day 8 = another heat wave. The operational models are showing 594dm ridge centered on the eastern US, which is really impressive.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 21 2018, 09:30 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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NorEaster07
post Jun 22 2018, 07:34 AM
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So far so good! No prolonged heat. No heat waves. Not much humidity!

Quick look at Bridgeport, CT temps and dews this month so far.

88 Max temp. (1st time since 2009 not hitting 89+, obviously still a week to go)
51 Low temp.
73 Dew point Max
37.9 Dew point Low

Attached File  obs6.jpg ( 169.36K ) Number of downloads: 0


Edit..

Me saying "So Far So Good" in summer is correlated to this.....

Dewpoints have been below normal this month. It's about time for June. In fact only twice since 1993 has it Averaged under 57.5F

Attached File  dewpoints14.jpg ( 307.89K ) Number of downloads: 0


Loving these troughs swinging in each week and the fronts staying SOUTH of NYC. Down south has been "sweltering'!

Attached File  Map38.jpg ( 410.94K ) Number of downloads: 1



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jun 22 2018, 07:37 AM
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bingobobbo
post Jun 22 2018, 12:05 PM
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I am hoping we can get a late-month cold front to ensure a cooler-than-average June for us. So far, the dew points, as Noreaster mentioned, have been low. Even some cooler Junes--like 1986, 1993, 1998, 2000,2003, 2004, and 2009, and 2015 had a lot of muggy days--73-degree days that felt like 85. Except for the 1st and the 18th, this month has been easy to take, with even most of the warmer days cooling off by evening.


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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 08:27 AM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Jun 22 2018, 12:05 PM) *
I am hoping we can get a late-month cold front to ensure a cooler-than-average June for us. So far, the dew points, as Noreaster mentioned, have been low. Even some cooler Junes--like 1986, 1993, 1998, 2000,2003, 2004, and 2009, and 2015 had a lot of muggy days--73-degree days that felt like 85. Except for the 1st and the 18th, this month has been easy to take, with even most of the warmer days cooling off by evening.


This morning feels like Fall with the Dews in around 50, temps in low 60s and an East wind off the water. Leaves rustling and no sun around. Feels like September.


7 Day Temp departures every week so far.

U.S View

Attached File  temps1.jpg ( 308.23K ) Number of downloads: 1


Northeast View

Attached File  temps2.jpg ( 398.43K ) Number of downloads: 3


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