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> February 15-? Plains/MW/GL/OV Flooding Threat, Forecasts & OBS
snowlover2
post Feb 16 2018, 04:58 PM
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Start date is yesterday due to the heavy rain/flooding that occurred and there appears to be several more chances of heavy rain/flooding over the next 10 days if not longer.

WPC 7 day QPF
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ILN mentions flooding potential.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
306 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday will be the least active weather day in the extended as high
pressure traverses the Ohio Valley. Under sunshine, highs will
moderate into the 40s to lower 50s.

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for next
week. Thus, the threat for additional flooding will continue. The
upper level flow pattern becomes amplified as a strong subtropical
ridge builds off the southeast U.S. coast while large scale mid
level troughing develops across western Canada/western U.S. This
setup will transport rounds of moisture northeast across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. The first round of precipitation is expected
Sunday night into Monday as a low level/moist jet in association
with a warm front pushes northeast across the area. In the warm
sector, highs will warm into the 60s most locations on Monday. For
Monday night into Wednesday night, a very slow moving frontal
boundary will be the focus for more rounds of precipitation. It will
be unseasonably warm on Tuesday with some cooler air slowly moving
back in by Wednesday. Tuesday temperatures will vary with higher
chances of rain for the northwest with the least in the southeast.
This will allow highs to range from the mid 60s northwest to the mid
70s southeast. Showers and a slow frontal passage will cool
temperatures back down on Wednesday.

By weeks end, there could be a respite in the probability for
precipitation by Thursday as the front tries to move east/southeast
of the region. However, activity will likely ramp up again by Friday
and into next weekend as s/wv energy begins to affect the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley once again.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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RobB
post Feb 16 2018, 05:23 PM
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Here are today's 12Z Euro EPS and GEFS 10 day total precip means

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snowlover2
post Feb 16 2018, 09:25 PM
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QUOTE
US National Weather Service Wilmington OH

Page Liked ∑ 24 mins ∑



Despite having some heavy rain over the past day or so, the weather pattern next week will favor additional heavy rain potential over a large area from the deep south northward into parts of the OH Valley. Stay tuned for updates through the weekend into early next week at our website at weather.gov/iln.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ValpoSnow
post Feb 16 2018, 09:29 PM
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Horrible end to winter.
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Snow____
post Feb 17 2018, 06:29 AM
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So Iím assuming winter is pretty much over down this way unless March does some interesting things lol.


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Snow____
post Feb 17 2018, 12:52 PM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Feb 17 2018, 06:29 AM) *
So Iím assuming winter is pretty much over down this way unless March does some interesting things lol.

Of course itís been moderately snowing for the last hour lol.


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NWOhioChaser
post Feb 17 2018, 01:47 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Feb 16 2018, 09:29 PM) *
Horrible end to winter.

I'm not the least bit surprised really. Plenty of moisture now....but no cold in place. 11 days until meteorological spring. Bring it on!
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CentralIllinois
post Feb 17 2018, 03:53 PM
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WPC
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Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


Note to Accuweather.com....Please give us a dedicated video blogger for the Plains/MW/OV/GL area!
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Juniorrr
post Feb 17 2018, 06:14 PM
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OH River... just wait until the next week. Our sump-pump been on all night/day. Not saying we're all going to flood but its gonna be a muddy upcoming week.
QUOTE
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
128 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers...

Ohio River at Portsmouth
Ohio River at Maysville
Scioto River at Circleville
Scioto River at Piketon
Big Darby Creek at Darbyville

OHC129-180228-
/O.EXT.KILN.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180219T0148Z/
/CRCO1.1.ER.180217T0005Z.180217T1730Z.180218T1948Z.
O/
128 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...Flooding now expected to continue until Sunday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Scioto River at Circleville
* until Sunday evening.
* At 12 PM the stage was 18.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 15 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early Sunday afternoon.
* At stages near 18.0 feet, low-lying areas north of Circleville near
Little Walnut begin to flood. Flooding also worsens at the
intersection of Canal Road and State Route 104 and on Island Road
north of Circleville. Backwater flooding occurs along Big Darby Creek
near Circleville.


This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Feb 17 2018, 06:15 PM
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Snow____
post Feb 17 2018, 11:35 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Feb 17 2018, 06:14 PM) *
OH River... just wait until the next week. Our sump-pump been on all night/day. Not saying we're all going to flood but its gonna be a muddy upcoming week.

Thereís a flood warning on the river here in the city as well.


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snowlover2
post Feb 17 2018, 11:53 PM
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0z GFS
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0z GGEM
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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Kazairl
post Feb 18 2018, 12:00 AM
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Flood warning for Ohio River at Paducah as well. Flood stage for Paducah is 39 feet. River was 37.6 feet at 9 PM today. Current forecasted crest is at 41 feet next weekend. Relatively minor flooding expected for now. The infamous 1937 flood brought the river to 60.8 feet on February 2 after 18 inches of rain in 16 days.




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snowlover2
post Feb 18 2018, 11:50 AM
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WPC 7 day QPF

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12z GFS
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12z GGEM
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--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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Snow____
post Feb 18 2018, 12:36 PM
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Gfs paints an ugly picture of almost 6 inches of rain by weeks end.


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stxprowl
post Feb 18 2018, 01:50 PM
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Thought id share some of the Little Rock Arkansas news Mets twitter feeds. If these models are right, thereís gonna be some bad flooding. sad.gif
I think I spelled them right.

Little Rock news twitter feeds
@NWSLittleRock
@KATVNews
@FOX16News
@THV11
@KARK4News

Chief Met
@JeffBaskinFOX16

Ed Buckner Chief Met KTHV
@ed_buckner

Keith Monahan Chief Met at KARK
@ChiefKeith

Natalie Walters Met at FOX16 and KARK4
@NatWaltersWX

Met at FOX16 and KARK4
@PatWalkerWX

Hayden Nix Met at KARK
@HaydenNix

Todd Yakoubian Met
@KATVToddYak

Barry Brandt Met
@KATVBarry

Ned Perme Met
@KATVNed

Melinda Mayo Met
@KATVmelinda
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RobB
post Feb 18 2018, 02:10 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Feb 18 2018, 11:50 AM) *
WPC 7 day QPF

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12z GFS


12z GGEM


12Z Euro
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RobB
post Feb 18 2018, 02:11 PM
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12Z GEFS 10 day mean total precipitation
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stxprowl
post Feb 18 2018, 02:28 PM
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Little Rock NWS Briefing: http://www.weather.gov/media/lzk/LZKBriefing.pdf

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Juniorrr
post Feb 18 2018, 02:33 PM
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2-4" seems like the average. With these events it is always hard to pinpoint the location of the 4-6"+ gradient... usually is obs determined wherever the thunderstorms/heavy rain train.

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MichelleOH
post Feb 18 2018, 02:41 PM
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Yikes! 2" please.
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